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Texas Winter 2021


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7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

it snows all the way north into OK. Seems like a model bust, in a good way

Might bust in two separate directions given the lack of accumulations in northern Dallas

EDIT: Seems to be making a transition back to rain. Oh well was fun while it lasted!

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15 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Might bust in two separate directions given the lack of accumulations in northern Dallas

EDIT: Seems to be making a transition back to rain. Oh well was fun while it lasted!

interesting. i should be really close to you. still heavy snow.

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20 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

No longer snowing here. Snowed for like 2 hours but could never properly accumulate on the ground.

Edit: transitioned back to very light flurries but nowhere near what it was before.

Still nothing here. Increasingly skeptical we'll see anything meaningful later. Hourly has us at a 100% chance of precip which, uh, yeah...

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  • 2 weeks later...

Despite the reputation of La Nina, it does seem like West Texas and north Texas often do fairly well for snow early on in La Ninas. There were some pretty impressive snow events in 2017-18, 2008-09, and 2005-06 really far into the South just off the top of my head. I think Houston, Austin, Brownsville, San Antonio and New Orleans have all had snow in recent La Ninas. Not each city in each year, but you get brief windows.

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16 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Despite the reputation of La Nina, it does seem like West Texas and north Texas often do fairly well for snow early on in La Ninas. There were some pretty impressive snow events in 2017-18, 2008-09, and 2005-06 really far into the South just off the top of my head. I think Houston, Austin, Brownsville, San Antonio and New Orleans have all had snow in recent La Ninas. Not each city in each year, but you get brief windows.

I haven't looked at the specific dates for those years in particular but despite it being difficult for snowfall in N TX, it's even more difficult during La Nina unless you get some sort of an anomalous pattern earlier this season (more El Nino like) or we are in the right place right time during some sort of pattern transition. Plus as you know there are other factors as well such as SSWs which can throw a wrench in things. Either way, near term, not looking great as synoptics are finally settling into more of a La Nina regime.

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Texas is heading for the deep freeze beginning Tuesday next week! A nearly 1058 mb Arctic high will move out of the northwest territories and plunge into the lower 48. This will be the coldest of the season for many and for DFW, likely the coldest air in over two years (since January 2018). It also looks like a protracted cold air outbreak lasting until early the following week. The core of this outbreak looks to occur Thursday through the weekend of Valentine's where temperatures are likely to be in the teens at DFW (even in the heat island) with highs struggling to get out of the 20s. There could be multiple days of subfreezing temperatures. Also, there is some signal for light frozen precipitation, though it looks like moisture may be hard to come by given the setup. This Arctic blast also may send subfreezing temperatures into the lower Rio Grande Valley.

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