SnowMan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, TexMexWx said: FWD's snow forecast has been changing a good deal, but now they're basically forecasting another 3-4" for me, with a relatively tight gradient to the south along I-20 Yep - up here in Celina - I am looking at 4-6 and hoping for 8 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20z HRRR seems showing more snow than previous runs (mainly longer period) for the most part of the metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is from yesterday... talk about shattering a daily record... that had stood for 112 years LOL 000 SXUS74 KFWD 160711 RERDFW RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 1251 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2021 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR 2/15 SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 4 WAS SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 15 SET IN 1909. ...RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR 2/15 SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH... A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 14 DEGREES WAS SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH YESTERDAY FOR THIS DATE. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 31 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1909. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Oh and today will beat the daily record low by another 14 degrees, which had stood since 1903 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 hours ago, DFWWeather said: Looks like the official low at DFW Airport might be -2°F. If true and not due to a rounding error off the 5 minute observations, it would be the coldest temps since January 31, 1949. tied for #2 all time behind 1899 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I am over 24 hrs now without power. It’s a bit chilly in the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Brothers upstairs is now downstairs. And sounds like they’re finding lots of deceased around Galveston and Brazoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’ve just now got power, data, and internet back. Which model for round two is looking good? From my limited understanding the HRRR and Nam3k don’t look similar to me at all. The HRRR is way south compared to the Nam3k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, SWineman said: I’ve just now got power, data, and internet back. Which model for round two is looking good? From my limited understanding the HRRR and Nam3k don’t look similar to me at all. The HRRR is way south compared to the Nam3k. I am like you looking at this for the first time since Sunday. I have people asking what to expect and I have no idea as of now. Sure hoping the southern solution is correct to put me in the snow zone solidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, SWineman said: I’ve just now got power, data, and internet back. Which model for round two is looking good? From my limited understanding the HRRR and Nam3k don’t look similar to me at all. The HRRR is way south compared to the Nam3k. I think we'll see between a T-2" in the Metroplex. Best lift is below DGZ (which is shallow) and that warm nose is going to ruin any shot of good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Twitter, barely, on cell phone, first power and internet in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 31 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I think we'll see between a T-2" in the Metroplex. Best lift is below DGZ (which is shallow) and that warm nose is going to ruin any shot of good ratios. Houston never really saw snow round 1. Sleet turned to small particles of ice, basically frozen drizzle, that sort of looked like snow, it didn't come down very fast, but didn't accumulate much. OTOH, although some local back streets melted in sunny spots to pavement, there were still hard packed white spots on the streets at sundown. I was watching TV before the blackout, people nearby reporting snow with SPC 850 mb of +4, and wondered. Newest NAM, just enough freezing drizzle tonight before dawn on already cold, and in some places, still ice packed streets, to make for an interesting commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 50 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: I think we'll see between a T-2" in the Metroplex. Best lift is below DGZ (which is shallow) and that warm nose is going to ruin any shot of good ratios. Much more like the winter storms of yore lol. FWD still forecasting a 100% chance of snow fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, cheese007 said: Much more like the winter storms of yore lol. FWD still forecasting a 100% chance of snow fwiw Yeah it could stay all snow, will be close! Warm nose could still be subfreezing I'm using it more in context of a warm air intrusion around 850mb that could bump down good snow growth is what I was getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here comes my round 2. Beginning as sleet in Longview. 2-3" of snow/sleet followed by 0.1"-0.2" freezing rain seems likely. Hopefully more snow and less ice. I took a drive around town tonight. As expected, the roads are horrible. Still pretty manageable with 4wd, but roadways and especially intersections are becoming very icy as vehicles have continued driving on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, cstrunk said: Here comes my round 2. Beginning as sleet in Longview. 2-3" of snow/sleet followed by 0.1"-0.2" freezing rain seems likely. Hopefully more snow and less ice. I took a drive around town tonight. As expected, the roads are horrible. Still pretty manageable with 4wd, but roadways and especially intersections are becoming very icy as vehicles have continued driving on them. Looks like little zr and mostly snow but some sleet at the onset and wrap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamabonners Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 13 hours ago, cheese007 said: Anyone know why the forecast pages, hourly forecasts, and snowfall map on FWD's main page all diverge in their snowfall projections? And 2nding the power companies and state leguslature being held responsible. I know two folks without electricity *and* running water since no heat = burst pipes in this weather. There is no reason for folks having to poop in a bucket all to line the pockets of politicians and CEOs Blame the rush to divert money away from coal and gas to wind and solar... Wind and solar won't help much in the times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, bamabonners said: Blame the rush to divert money away from coal and gas to wind and solar... Wind and solar won't help much in the times. Wind had problems but it wasn't *the* problem. That honor would go to natural gas: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/amp/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notsomadscientist Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, cheese007 said: Wind had problems but it wasn't *the* problem. That honor would go to natural gas: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/amp/ Though some turbines did freeze, wind actually went over their projections this past weekend. Here's another good article on what actually broke down. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/frozen-wind-farms-were-just-a-small-piece-of-texas-s-power-woes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 San Antonio Light Freezing Rain Fog/Mist 24°F -4°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notsomadscientist Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Hoping we are done with the rolling blackouts. The power has stayed on for 2 hours now, by far the longest stretch since Sunday night. We were expecting another 2" - 4" tonight and I have not seen a flake as of yet. 19°F feels downright balmy compared to this morning's -2°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said: I think we'll see between a T-2" in the Metroplex. Best lift is below DGZ (which is shallow) and that warm nose is going to ruin any shot of good ratios. Looking like a good call so far. Any recent melting covered with some steady but very light snow by the airport. Probably end up with a 1/2inch when all is said and done unless things pick up soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 0°C (32 F°) at IAH Houston, I'm halfway between IAH and DWH, it is misting/drizzle, but my car is just wet, not icy. Not yet, anyway. Still some areas of packed sleet on street that weren't in direct sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Snowing in Longview. Models show precip lasting until about mid-afternoon... Hopefully it stays mostly snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well, a literal cold slap in the face of 10 mins of power at approximately 4 am. That makes 10 mins of power for the last 36 hours I believe that here in Lewisville the “rolling blackouts” that were supposed to share the burden became “we don’t trust the grid so those of you don’t have power, won’t have power”. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Not much new snow, less than an inch. The rest has been sleet in Longview. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, cstrunk said: Not much new snow, less than an inch. The rest has been sleet in Longview. Warm layers screwed that area of ET this morning, flipping to sleet before it should've. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @gwlee7 The outages have not been equal at all. I’m so sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Well as of 8:04 am we have power so.......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Supposedly the initial botch by ERCOT, waiting too long to start rolling blackouts, damaged both generating plants and parts of the grid. Add in the supply issues and they have to be very careful with the grid now, load balancing is critical. Having it go down completely would be 100 times more disastrous than the current terrible fiasco. That said, we've slowly improved from less than 2 hours total power per day to about 40% on, 60% off. The outage gaps down from 11 hours to under 4 hours the last 3 times. Enough time on each return (1.5-3 hours) to rewarm the house and where the lowest temps inside during outages are getting progressively higher. They are making progress, hang in there. I know it's really awful for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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