Winter Banter and General Disco 2

[Supernovice]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Oxford was approved in Uk and couple other countries. Initially I thought they would be gold standard.

You have to recall to, that different companies are sort of designing their studies for higher success I.e enrolling less 75+ “elderly” ) and more 65-74 , as well as some are not enrolling folks w high blood pressure or diabetes And being over 75 . The Surgeon  General Has spoken highly about Novovax bc their enrollment has a higher amount of elderly African Americans with Co-morbidity’s. (I.E those with highest death rate)

The Oxford- AstraZeneca trial was garbage. Combining data from different countries, the dosage fiasco etc...AstraZeneca really f-ing blew it. On multiple multiple levels, including with the FDA. Really shameful tbh.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I don't want to get NAM'ed by a COVID model.

I just looked at 0z nam and I’m wondering if I should ski wildcat and chase that 

[Bostonseminole]

7 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Are any of these variants being used to drive fear and paranoia actually any deadlier? 

No, but might not be less deadly, which is still an issue.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It seems kind of disingenuous for Fauci and company to poo poo 70% efficacy for a vaccine when not even 6 months ago we were told 60% would be “outstanding”.

I don’t see the issue, especially if a lot of them are north of 90%... you’re still moving towards the same goal.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

Massachusetts hasn’t done well with getting the vaccine distributed at all. Hard to imagine given the health care system we have here. 
Frickin West Virginia is doing really well. Go figure. 

Too much red tape, per usual. Instead of just getting the shots in people, we are worried about jumping through hoops and having tiered approaches etc etc. it’s been about a month now, it’s clear that approach isn’t working, time to pivot.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I still have not received my stimulus money. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It seems kind of disingenuous for Fauci and company to poo poo 70% efficacy for a vaccine when not even 6 months ago we were told 60% would be “outstanding”.

I don’t see the issue, especially if a lot of them are north of 90%... you’re still moving towards the same goal.

Yea. Just have to get it out there now. States still struggling to distribute. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Lowest consecutive 3 day equity put:call ratio’s in years .  .34, .34, .36  

Historic levels of bullish call options being placed primarily in small cap stocks

Vertical moves create instability ,

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1349765784944463875/photo/1

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1349731710859059202/photo/1

[Lava Rock]

Damn media just sucks. News last night reports congressman tested pos after getting vax. I didn't catch the details, but a couple different ways of interpreting this. Regardless, this doesn't help convincing the public the vaccine is effective

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[WhitinsvilleWX]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Damn media just sucks. News last night reports congressman tested pos after getting vax. I didn't catch the details, but a couple different ways of interpreting this. Regardless, this doesn't help convincing the public the vaccine is effective

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

I read that. He said he wasn’t sick and felt fine. 
Im telling you it’s that GD, foul PCR test. I’d like to see the cycle number where he tested positive. I’d bet a months pay it fell into the range of “non moribund , non infectious”. 
His immune system took care of it and all that’s left are a few viral particles or strands of RNA left that are meaningless. 
Until that PCR goes away or is modified with respect to interpretation, we’ll have these meaningless “positive” forever. 
Makes me so angry they can’t get this right.

[Ginx snewx]

34 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Damn media just sucks. News last night reports congressman tested pos after getting vax. I didn't catch the details, but a couple different ways of interpreting this. Regardless, this doesn't help convincing the public the vaccine is effective

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

I know a lady who works in LTC who tested positive 3 days after the shot. She is sick but was probably already positive when given the shot.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Damn media just sucks. News last night reports congressman tested pos after getting vax. I didn't catch the details, but a couple different ways of interpreting this. Regardless, this doesn't help convincing the public the vaccine is effective

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

At the 95% effective rate, a million people vaccinated means 50,000 positives.  But that data generates fewer clicks.

[Supernovice]

Can we cross reference those that think the new variants aren’t a big deal because they are not more deadly, with their math aptitude? 
 

This feels like “it’s just the flu” but even more dumb and dangerous if that’s possible.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I read that. He said he wasn’t sick and felt fine. 
Im telling you it’s that GD, foul PCR test. I’d like to see the cycle number where he tested positive. I’d bet a months pay it fell into the range of “non moribund , non infectious”. 
His immune system took care of it and all that’s left are a few viral particles or strands of RNA left that are meaningless. 
Until that PCR goes away or is modified with respect to interpretation, we’ll have these meaningless “positive” forever. 
Makes me so angry they can’t get this right.

Do you think there was any extensive validation into these assays, cause they should harmonize the method, use one accepted method, all with the same Ct.

[PhineasC]

4 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

Can we cross reference those that think the new variants aren’t a big deal because they are not more deadly, with their math aptitude? 
 

This feels like “it’s just the flu” but even more dumb and dangerous if that’s possible.

Has this virus been good for your stock portfolio? There is a whole class of people pushing the lockdowns and restrictions because it helps their wallets. Hope that’s not you, man. 

[Bostonseminole]

lockdown talk seems to be quieting down, wear a mask, get the vaccine rolled out ASAP, unless we get a variant that changes the equation, lets get to the finish line and get past this, we can be done in by June if done correctly.

[PhineasC]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

lockdown talk seems to be quieting down, wear a mask, get the vaccine rolled out ASAP, unless we get a variant that changes the equation, lets get to the finish line and get past this, we can be done in by June if done correctly.

Yet many businesses are still severely restricted and functionally shut down...

[HoarfrostHubb]

Try your best (if able) to order takeout if you don’t feel comfortable dining in a restaurant.  Tip bigly

[PhineasC]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Try your best (if able) to order takeout if you don’t feel comfortable dining in a restaurant.  Tip bigly

Yep, been doing big tips across the board. I tip 30% min even when I get carry-out. Not trying to brag, everyone should do as much as they are able to help those struggling and still having to work their asses off.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Yep, been doing big tips across the board. I tip 30% min even when I get carry-out. Not trying to brag, everyone should do as much as they are able to help those struggling and still having to work their asses off.

I have yet to order to go cocktails.   That is in the cards methinks.  

[Supernovice]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Has this virus been good for your stock portfolio? There is a whole class of people pushing the lockdowns and restrictions because it helps their wallets. Hope that’s not you, man. 

I spend my time dealing with things called facts, and mathematical certainties. Like the below, which I can't believe I have actually have to do:

Baseline: R= 1.1, Infections= 10,000, fatality risk= 0.8% generation time= 6 days so: 10,000*(1.1^5)*0.8=129 deaths after 1 month of spread.

50% Increase in fatality risk: only variable change is 0.8%*1.5, all others baseline= 193 new deaths

50% Increase in transmission.  Only variable change is now (1.1*1.5)^5= 978 new deaths over the month.

There is a whole class of people playing down the virus because it fits their twisted worldview. Hope that’s not you, man.

 

[Bostonseminole]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Yet many businesses are still severely restricted and functionally shut down...

Yeap, I know it sucks.  I hope that as more people are vaccinated they can allow more folks indoors, for example if they show their Vax card etc.. IDK, whatever helps folks.  On that note, I went to the mall yesterday and all restaurants etc are packed.. so maybe other geographies are not doing as well.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lowest consecutive 3 day equity put:call ratio’s in years .  .34, .34, .36  

Historic levels of bullish call options being placed primarily in small cap stocks

Vertical moves create instability ,

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1349765784944463875/photo/1

https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1349731710859059202/photo/1

No shock that we sell off early today 

 

Casino royale

[PhineasC]

13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Yeap, I know it sucks.  I hope that as more people are vaccinated they can allow more folks indoors, for example if they show their Vax card etc.. IDK, whatever helps folks.  On that note, I went to the mall yesterday and all restaurants etc are packed.. so maybe other geographies are not doing as well.

If they are “packed” at 50% capacity that is still not sustainable. A lot of folks don’t understand the thin margins these places operate under. They need a packed house to make the business work. Same for theaters, music venues, etc. 

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If they are “packed” at 50% capacity that is still not sustainable. A lot of folks don’t understand the thin margins these places operate under. They need a packed house to make the business work. Same for theaters, music venues, etc. 

I'm sure they are getting extra from  take out.. I think some restaurants are doing fine, of course at 50% that means you also don't need a full staff, I get it.. I still don't think it would matter if you open up 100% some of these venues, most folks will not want to sit next to another unknown person.. at least I won't, just push the vaccine roll out faster and things improve, I mean that is the answer, it's there, we have it, lets get it done.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

No shock that we sell off early today 

 

Casino royale

I like this analysis which is a concerning trend for our country. If we don’t change policies fast, we’re in deep trouble:

 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

3 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Do you think there was any extensive validation into these assays, cause they should harmonize the method, use one accepted method, all with the same Ct.

They didn't validate shit. It's all still EUA. Any validation done so far says Ct values >32-33 aren't infectious. Nothing's standardized. The rapid tests false negative rate is being compared to the PCR tests that are called positive at anything less than 40. Total BS. IMO, if you're negative off the rapid test, you're not infectious. That needs to be validated against viral replication assays, badly, and not PCR.   

[klw]

5 hours ago, WhitinsvilleWX said:

I read that. He said he wasn’t sick and felt fine. 
Im telling you it’s that GD, foul PCR test. I’d like to see the cycle number where he tested positive. I’d bet a months pay it fell into the range of “non moribund , non infectious”. 
His immune system took care of it and all that’s left are a few viral particles or strands of RNA left that are meaningless. 
Until that PCR goes away or is modified with respect to interpretation, we’ll have these meaningless “positive” forever. 
Makes me so angry they can’t get this right.

 

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I know a lady who works in LTC who tested positive 3 days after the shot. She is sick but was probably already positive when given the shot.

 

Issue for both could also be that isn't there a lag time between the shot and it being fully effective.  This morning on the radio, an NPR story mentioned a 2 week lag time and when I had the flu shot in the fall the nurse also mentioned a 2 week delay in full protection.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It seems kind of disingenuous for Fauci and company to poo poo 70% efficacy for a vaccine when not even 6 months ago we were told 60% would be “outstanding”.

I don’t see the issue, especially if a lot of them are north of 90%... you’re still moving towards the same goal.

I keep convincing myself that Fauci was just obfuscating and  using that number to poo poo the Results instead of just embarrass Oxford and Highlight /mention the REAL reason the results were disappointing and how they fiddled and diddled with the numbers and dosages to show something “good”. Bc otherwise , nobody is gonna have 95% effficacy

Regarding JnJ and some likely good results (as long as Facui doesn’t think 75-85% is not good enough lol ) I just was reading it will be April until they get shots in people’s arms 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thestreet.com/.amp/investing/johnson-johnson-jnj-one-shot-covid-19-vaccine-delayed

I realized production was messed up, but I didn’t realize how royally messed up it is, how don’t you have at least some vaccine prepared should this be green lighted in less than a month . They were suppose to have 60 million dosages out by End of April . They are two months behind that at least.

What in the helll is wrong with these companies or was the original time frame just that much of a incompetent lie ?

 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

30 minutes ago, klw said:

 

 

Issue for both could also be that isn't there a lag time between the shot and it being fully effective.  This morning on the radio, an NPR story mentioned a 2 week lag time and when I had the flu shot in the fall the nurse also mentioned a 2 week delay in full protection.

The congressman wasn't sick. No symptoms, felt fine. Had the second shot I believe.