Brian D Posted September 25, 2021 Author Share Posted September 25, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:18 PM, Brian D said: My forecast for Columbus Day calls for inclement weather affecting parts of the region. Well, lets see if this long range GFS pattern ends up being what I'm seeing for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 30, 2021 Author Share Posted September 30, 2021 Ok, here's my Christmas forecast. Front moving through with an area of low pressure from the west possibly running ahead, or along the boundary. The other scenario is the low hangs back, or gets shunted south. But frontal activity will moving through the Christmas holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 30, 2021 Author Share Posted September 30, 2021 Cold with CA fronts. Nothing major, except LES, it looks like to me. The holiday week in general looks rather chilly, with some storm/snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 11, 2021 Author Share Posted October 11, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:18 PM, Brian D said: My forecast for Columbus Day calls for inclement weather affecting parts of the region. Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 14, 2021 Author Share Posted October 14, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, Brian D said: Halloween looks to be wet for some, while cold and blustery for others. 06Z GFs showing the pattern I see during this time frame. Lets see if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, Brian D said: Halloween looks to be wet for some, while cold and blustery for others. Halloween pattern on track. Few days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 26, 2021 Author Share Posted October 26, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:21 PM, Brian D said: Veteran's Day looks to be cool but nice for most with weather in the south, and a front approaching from the west. 06z GFS showing pattern I'm looking for on Veteran's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted October 26, 2021 Share Posted October 26, 2021 ^excellent commitment to a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:19 PM, Brian D said: Halloween looks to be wet for some, while cold and blustery for others. Good call. Starting to feel a little more like winter around here in the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 my early thoughts on Christmas eve. Let's see how I do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Looks about right. Mchenrysnow gets edged, although I'd move that ice line just a little farther north, say around Indy, Dayton and Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 On 9/18/2021 at 3:55 PM, Brian D said: Thanksgiving forecast. Wet(some mix/snow) weather moving through Thanksgiving day into Black Friday. 12z GFS is picking up on the pattern for this time frame that I'm seeing. Going to be a very interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Just seems a little extreme to me for Thanksgiving?? Those temps in the northern Midwest are crazy cold. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 That 12Z GFS map looks an awful lot like my map for Christmas eve. I believe it has the pattern correct just 30 days too soon. The usual GFS bias.Time will tell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 GFS is aggressive in the long range. Temps, precip, etc. Just the pattern I'm looking at, and it's close to the set up I'm seeing with my forecast method around T-Day as per my maps. That's why I put it up. Would be something, tho, if it did turn out that aggressive. 4 hours ago, Frog Town said: Just seems a little extreme to me for Thanksgiving?? Those temps in the northern Midwest are crazy cold. Don't get me wrong, I'd love it. 2 hours ago, Baum said: That 12Z GFS map looks an awful lot like my map for Christmas eve. I believe it has the pattern correct just 30 days too soon. The usual GFS bias.Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 On 8/27/2021 at 5:21 PM, Brian D said: Veteran's Day looks to be cool but nice for most with weather in the south, and a front approaching from the west. I was a day behind on my forecast. I expected today's weather for Vet's Day. Close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 12, 2021 Author Share Posted November 12, 2021 On 9/18/2021 at 3:55 PM, Brian D said: Thanksgiving forecast. Wet(some mix/snow) weather moving through Thanksgiving day into Black Friday. 06 GFS showing about what I'm looking for during this time frame. I have the low a little more north, so we shall see how this goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 @Brian D Shit's still there on various models, what are your thoughts at this juncture? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 I still see shit to some degree during the 3 day period I have posted. Models don't really know what to do with it. From a pop fart to Montezuma's revenge is typical of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 18, 2021 Author Share Posted November 18, 2021 14 hours ago, Malacka11 said: @Brian D Shit's still there on various models, what are your thoughts at this juncture? Just took a look at the weekend (Sat & Sun). That could be a messy one for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted November 19, 2021 Share Posted November 19, 2021 It feels like the models are taking turns with supporting a storm (for better or for worse) ~180 hours out. Now the Euro is the closest thing to a hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 19, 2021 Author Share Posted November 19, 2021 12 hours ago, Malacka11 said: It feels like the models are taking turns with supporting a storm (for better or for worse) ~180 hours out. Now the Euro is the closest thing to a hit again. I have a map from what I mentioned yesterday from my model method. Looks like a clipper moving in with some energy from the south moving up. Could be significant. A messy weekend down that way with snows my way, very possible. Models always get a bit wild during the colder season. For many years that has not changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 23, 2021 Author Share Posted November 23, 2021 On 9/18/2021 at 3:55 PM, Brian D said: Thanksgiving forecast. Wet(some mix/snow) weather moving through Thanksgiving day into Black Friday. Looks like a decent call for the wet weather, but like last time, my maps are running a little behind by almost a day, especially Wed into Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 6 hours ago, Brian D said: Looks like a decent call for the wet weather, but like last time, my maps are running a little behind by almost a day, especially Wed into Thurs. Another wet Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 25, 2021 Author Share Posted November 25, 2021 On 11/19/2021 at 1:23 PM, Brian D said: I have a map from what I mentioned yesterday from my model method. Looks like a clipper moving in with some energy from the south moving up. Could be significant. A messy weekend down that way with snows my way, very possible. Models always get a bit wild during the colder season. For many years that has not changed. Southern energy stays put with the clipper moving through bringing light precip. Close call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 26, 2021 Share Posted November 26, 2021 On 11/8/2021 at 11:24 AM, Brian D said: 12z GFS is picking up on the pattern for this time frame that I'm seeing. Going to be a very interesting one. bust is to polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 26, 2021 Author Share Posted November 26, 2021 5 hours ago, Baum said: bust is to polite. So much for counting on you as my replacement for Joe Bastardi after my disappointment in his long range calls. Lost credibility with me in his constant calls for WAD. You seem to forget that I had the low further north in my forecast with high pressure in place by Friday. Was a little behind as it started moving through on Wed, and I had it on starting on Thurs. And I did mention that even with the GFS maps in my posts. I did post a bad example there. I'll have to be more careful in doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 11/3/2021 at 10:02 AM, Baum said: my early thoughts on Christmas eve. Let's see how I do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 ^ Now that were within 10 days I feel it necessary to update my original call for Christmas. Please note there have been some changes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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