Brian D Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 A new Holiday forecast thread for the upcoming year, 2021. Post your own thoughts and forecasts and lets see how they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 MLK Day Jan 18, 2021 looks pretty fair and colder with maybe some frontal activity in the most eastern part of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 For Groundhog's Day, I see a similar set up as MLK Day. I am looking for stormy weather in the days prior, so watch for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 5, 2021 Author Share Posted January 5, 2021 Now Valentine's Day, (and the day prior, 13th) I am expecting stormy weather. Something to watch for weather lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Alek and Cary are right. We're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 32 minutes ago, Brian D said: Now Valentine's Day, (and the day prior, 13th) I am expecting stormy weather. Something to watch for weather lovers. I got an eye Dr. appt for 2/17, so this works out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I am concerned that the fronts are getting smaller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 11, 2021 Author Share Posted January 11, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:40 PM, Brian D said: MLK Day Jan 18, 2021 looks pretty fair and colder with maybe some frontal activity in the most eastern part of our area. Looks like it may pan out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 From "Holiday forecast" thread Nov 17th "Dec is looking to be a mixed bag like we have seen so far this Fall. Dec is still technically Fall until the Solstice so why not continue the Fallness of 2020 Anyway, I think Dec ends up near avg to above avg for the region. Come Jan tho, I think we start seeing the cold being more prevalent than the warmer weather(which will show up), and the end of Jan into early Feb shows signs of being brutally cold. In fact, Feb as whole looks really cold." Looks like Dec call was good, but Jan not so much as it has been on the warmer side more than I anticipated. Heating bill looking good, so no complaints. Still think the late Jan into Feb forecast will be good so we will see. Also looking for more winter stms for areas south of me as I noted in the Jan Discuss thread Looking into March, cold early with big stms mid month. Becoming milder, if not a bit summery (especially southern areas) by the end into Easter(Apr 4). Stmy wx on tap that weekend. So this is a cursory look in to the end of winter into early Spring. Plenty of action coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 18, 2021 Author Share Posted January 18, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:40 PM, Brian D said: MLK Day Jan 18, 2021 looks pretty fair and colder with maybe some frontal activity in the most eastern part of our area. Looks like I'm off by a day. My map is closer to the 19th (tomorrow). It's definitely colder here today, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:42 PM, Brian D said: For Groundhog's Day, I see a similar set up as MLK Day. I am looking for stormy weather in the days prior, so watch for that. Might happen like I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:44 PM, Brian D said: Now Valentine's Day, (and the day prior, 13th) I am expecting stormy weather. Something to watch for weather lovers. GFS gets it right sometimes in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm thinking that low will end up more near joplin,MO as we close in on the date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:42 PM, Brian D said: For Groundhog's Day, I see a similar set up as MLK Day. I am looking for stormy weather in the days prior, so watch for that. Looks good for my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:44 PM, Brian D said: Now Valentine's Day, (and the day prior, 13th) I am expecting stormy weather. Something to watch for weather lovers. Maybe a weenies wet valentine dream!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 1/5/2021 at 4:44 PM, Brian D said: Now Valentine's Day, (and the day prior, 13th) I am expecting stormy weather. Something to watch for weather lovers. Weak wave moving through on the 13th, with stronger weather much further south on the 14th. I was expecting something a little stronger starting on the 13th into the 14th, not a good call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 3:19 PM, Brian D said: From "Holiday forecast" thread Nov 17th "Dec is looking to be a mixed bag like we have seen so far this Fall. Dec is still technically Fall until the Solstice so why not continue the Fallness of 2020 Anyway, I think Dec ends up near avg to above avg for the region. Come Jan tho, I think we start seeing the cold being more prevalent than the warmer weather(which will show up), and the end of Jan into early Feb shows signs of being brutally cold. In fact, Feb as whole looks really cold." Looks like Dec call was good, but Jan not so much as it has been on the warmer side more than I anticipated. Heating bill looking good, so no complaints. Still think the late Jan into Feb forecast will be good so we will see. Also looking for more winter stms for areas south of me as I noted in the Jan Discuss thread Looking into March, cold early with big stms mid month. Becoming milder, if not a bit summery (especially southern areas) by the end into Easter(Apr 4). Stmy wx on tap that weekend. So this is a cursory look in to the end of winter into early Spring. Plenty of action coming up. The highlighted area shows my thinking from mid Nov. I was pretty close with that particular forecast. Feb has indeed been very cold. I continue to believe late Feb/early March will have some strong cold snaps for that time of year. Bigger stms should stay south and east of me here in N MN until about mid Mar when I expect to be hit harder with them. Now that Valentine's is here, I do have forecast's for St. Patrick's Day and Easter I'll be posting soon. Hope I do better than V-Day. That was awful. I'm so used to forecasting for my region over the years, that expanding it has been a challenge for me. I hope to do better, but failure is a great teacher, too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 ^ bowling ball season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas. Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do. Maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 5:13 PM, Brian D said: St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards. 5 days to go, and gov models have had something here off and on for a few days. Will I do better than last time? Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 12, 2021 Author Share Posted March 12, 2021 Mother's Day forecast looks like mostly fair and cool weather for most of the region. Wet weather will be moving through in the couple days prior to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12, 2021 Share Posted March 12, 2021 Made a little modification for Ma's day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Made a little modification for Ma's day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted March 13, 2021 Share Posted March 13, 2021 If I were to pick a week in May to go storm chasing in the plains, when would you recommend it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 13, 2021 Author Share Posted March 13, 2021 7 hours ago, madwx said: If I were to pick a week in May to go storm chasing in the plains, when would you recommend it? First week of May has this look with my modelling method. If that is what your looking for in a pattern for chasing. Trending more north as the month progresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 2/15/2021 at 5:13 PM, Brian D said: St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards. Looks like this was close call. System a starting a little south than my map, and definitely a stm maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 17, 2021 Author Share Posted March 17, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 5:43 PM, Brian D said: Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas. Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do. Maps: Gov model has the pattern I believe to be happening on the start of Easter weekend. 2 weeks to go, so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted April 1, 2021 Author Share Posted April 1, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 5:43 PM, Brian D said: Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas. Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do. Maps: So my forecast was something in between. The forecast for Good Friday was off. That sharp front came through in the days prior. Yes, there is another front moving in, but not what I was expecting. Saturday and Easter are close calls. The weather looks good overall. Enjoy your Easter holiday everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted April 25, 2021 Author Share Posted April 25, 2021 On 3/12/2021 at 5:15 PM, Brian D said: Mother's Day forecast looks like mostly fair and cool weather for most of the region. Wet weather will be moving through in the couple days prior to this day. Looks like long range GFS is picking up what I saw for Ma's day. Couple weeks to go tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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