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Holiday Forecasts 2021


Brian D
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From "Holiday forecast" thread Nov 17th 

"Dec is looking to be a mixed bag like we have seen so far this Fall. Dec is still technically Fall until the Solstice so why not continue the Fallness of 2020 :) Anyway, I think Dec ends up near avg to above avg for the region. Come Jan tho, I think we start seeing the cold being more prevalent than the warmer weather(which will show up), and the end of Jan into early Feb shows signs of being brutally cold. In fact, Feb as whole looks really cold."

Looks like Dec call was good, but Jan not so much as it has been on the warmer side more than I anticipated. Heating bill looking good, so no complaints. :)

Still think the late Jan into Feb forecast will be good so we will see. Also looking for more winter stms for areas south of me as I noted in the Jan Discuss thread

Looking into March, cold early with big stms mid month. Becoming milder, if not a bit summery (especially southern areas) by the end into Easter(Apr 4). Stmy wx on tap that weekend. So this is a cursory look in to the end of winter into early Spring. Plenty of action coming up.

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On 1/5/2021 at 4:40 PM, Brian D said:

MLK Day Jan 18, 2021 looks pretty fair and colder with maybe some frontal activity in the most eastern part of our area.

 

MLK day forcast map.gif

Looks like I'm off by a day. My map is closer to the 19th (tomorrow). It's definitely colder here today, tho.

MLK wx.gif

MLK wx 2.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/5/2021 at 4:44 PM, Brian D said:

Now Valentine's Day, (and the day prior, 13th) I am expecting stormy weather. Something to watch for weather lovers. :)

 

Valentines day forecast map.gif

Weak wave moving through on the 13th, with stronger weather much further south on the 14th. I was expecting something a little stronger starting on the 13th into the 14th, not a good call here.

 

Feb 13th wx map.gif

Feb 14th wx map.gif

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On 1/14/2021 at 3:19 PM, Brian D said:

From "Holiday forecast" thread Nov 17th 

"Dec is looking to be a mixed bag like we have seen so far this Fall. Dec is still technically Fall until the Solstice so why not continue the Fallness of 2020 :) Anyway, I think Dec ends up near avg to above avg for the region. Come Jan tho, I think we start seeing the cold being more prevalent than the warmer weather(which will show up), and the end of Jan into early Feb shows signs of being brutally cold. In fact, Feb as whole looks really cold."

Looks like Dec call was good, but Jan not so much as it has been on the warmer side more than I anticipated. Heating bill looking good, so no complaints. :)

Still think the late Jan into Feb forecast will be good so we will see. Also looking for more winter stms for areas south of me as I noted in the Jan Discuss thread

Looking into March, cold early with big stms mid month. Becoming milder, if not a bit summery (especially southern areas) by the end into Easter(Apr 4). Stmy wx on tap that weekend. So this is a cursory look in to the end of winter into early Spring. Plenty of action coming up.

The highlighted area shows my thinking from mid Nov. I was pretty close with that particular forecast. Feb has indeed been very cold.

I continue to believe late Feb/early March will have some strong cold snaps for that time of year. Bigger stms should stay south and east of me here in N MN until about mid Mar when I expect to be hit harder with them.

Now that Valentine's is here, I do have forecast's for St. Patrick's Day and Easter I'll be posting soon. Hope I do better than V-Day. That was awful. I'm so used to forecasting for my region over the years, that expanding it has been a challenge for me. I hope to do better, but failure is a great teacher, too. :)

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Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas.

Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do.

Maps:

 

Good Friday April 2.gif

Sat April 3rd.gif

Easter Sunday Apr 4, 2021.gif

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 2/15/2021 at 5:13 PM, Brian D said:

St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards.

 

St Patricks day forecast map.gif

5 days to go, and gov models have had something here off and on for a few days. Will I do better than last time? Hope so.

 

St Patricks day forecast potential.png

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7 hours ago, madwx said:

If I were to pick a week in May to go storm chasing in the plains, when would you recommend it?

First week of May has this look with my modelling method. If that is what your looking for in a pattern for chasing. Trending more north as the month progresses.

 

Pattern look.png

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On 2/15/2021 at 5:13 PM, Brian D said:

St. Patricks Day forecast looks good with an eye to the W/SW for a potential storm threat to the region afterwards.

 

St Patricks day forecast map.gif

Looks like this was close call. System a starting a little south than my map, and definitely a stm maker.

 

St Patricks day wx.gif

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On 2/16/2021 at 5:43 PM, Brian D said:

Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas.

Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do.

Maps:

 

Good Friday April 2.gif

Sat April 3rd.gif

Easter Sunday Apr 4, 2021.gif

Gov model has the pattern I believe to be happening on the start of Easter weekend. 2 weeks to go, so we shall see.

 

good friday potential.png

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/16/2021 at 5:43 PM, Brian D said:

Ok, here's my thinking on Easter weekend. Sharp cold front coming through on the Good Friday, giving us the chance of showers/stms (even some snow potential behind) followed by a ridge on the 3rd, with inclement weather for the more southern areas and an approaching front from the west moving in on Easter for our western areas.

Boom, bust, or something in between, lets see how I do.

Maps:

 

Good Friday April 2.gif

Sat April 3rd.gif

Easter Sunday Apr 4, 2021.gif

So my forecast was something in between. The forecast for Good Friday was off. That sharp front came through in the days prior. Yes, there is another front moving in, but not what I was expecting. Saturday and Easter are close calls. The weather looks good overall. Enjoy your Easter holiday everyone :)

 

 

Apr 2 forecast.gif

April 3 forecast.gif

April 4 forecast.gif

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 3/12/2021 at 5:15 PM, Brian D said:

Mother's Day forecast looks like mostly fair and cool weather for most of the region. Wet weather will be moving through in the couple days prior to this day.

 

Mother's Day forecast.gif

Looks like long range GFS is picking up what I saw for Ma's day. Couple weeks to go tho.

Mother's Day forecast GFS.png

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