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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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3 hours ago, Ji said:

im guessing the 0z euro has no support lol? Looks like pure Northern S/W for the next 16 days that will result in dry clippers or Millers. We could really use a split flow. Our that ridge being more west

There is split flow out west actually but the blocking forces the NS to rip across the northern CONUS and there are 8,000 vorts flying across acting as a shred factory for anything that tries to come from the south. 

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Noise is a good word. 

 

There is a reason I've been hesitant this year to call things well in advance. When all the polar heights are retracted to one side of the NH and baroclinicity is poor (relative speaking), it becomes like a sickly free-for-all of waves in slow/choppy flow. Noisy
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2 hours ago, frd said:

That is true,  most events don't benefit us. However,  it can weaken and perturb the vortex, a plus,  but then the question becomes does it ruin or side track a pattern destined to be good ala 2018 possible, but sometimes they ( warmings )  do benefit the East. Already there is much hype on Accuu - Weather , CWG, private services. The official warming was Jan 5 th , so add 20 days = Jan 25 th to see the cold materialize as per HM.     

The end of week 3 after a SSW is when the cold really starts to correlate but some have suggested that timeline can speed up some when the TPV was already weak. So seeing the cold appear towards day 15 on guidance isn’t out of line with normal progression. 

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5 hours ago, CAPE said:

It won't make any meaningful difference at the surface or 850 mb. It's still there and without any phasing, there is really no way for the coastal low to gain latitude with that compressed flow out in front. The only way this was going to work imo was if that NS vort ended up far enough west to at least partially phase in time.

You are 100% correct about what our best scenario was 3 days ago when that NS vort was diving down over Lake Erie. If that had trended west and come in through Michigan we were golden. But that ship sailed and at this point, while its very very very slim, it’s trended so far the other way that perhaps there is a slight crack open for this to come north some. 
 

That NS SW trended so far east it has allowed the upper low to trend back north. It’s actually taking a perfect track for us again after it looked to be squashed down into the Carolinas the last couple days. 
 ACS02Jy.jpg
But there are 2 problems. Without the NS phase there isn’t much cold and so a very limited precip shield to the north of the low.  That ship has sailed so moving on. But the other issue is the NS SW up near Maine now instead of NY starts to absorb the system and it’s opening up and washing out by the time it gets here. 
 

This is very unlikely at this range but not impossible that if the spacing can increase just a bit more that the h5 low could hold on an extra 12 hours or so and that could pull the storm up the coast and additional 50 miles or so but also increase the moisture flow off the Atlantic for a while.  Get “this” adjustment to the look and suddenly a surprise is possible. 
Qgn33g5.jpg

Again not likely but not crazy impossible. If the adjustments to the NS continue at the same rate it would probably would happen but those adjustments become less likely as leads shorten so at some point I suspect they stop and we do see further north nudges but not to the degree we need.  

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Just now, poolz1 said:

Very similar to what the ICON just spit out.  So close to a phase or at least enough interaction to bring it further NW and expand the precip shield.  Two decent runs imo.

That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us

 

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3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us

 

Yeah, its not like we have good confluence to the north to block a west track or coastal hugger.  A delicate setup where we have hit it just right....what else is new?

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here.  Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs.  Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE.  

Much better. It phased but then it left a piece behind which stretched out the trough positively tilted and prevented the system from amplifying. The kicker diving into ND didn’t help either. The pattern has huge upside but all these NS SWs flying around are making it difficult. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS is getting there. But it’s massive differences run to run at h5 have to give anyone pause, regardless of your desired outcome.

This.  This right here.   THink it goes to our thinking...with the chaos could come rewards that could sneak right up on us. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I laughed..the results literally made me lol'd. We are cursed on the GFS

Yeah, I don't now WTF that hot mess was.  500mb evolution was supportive of a coastal storm.  Can't explain that surface solution.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Much better. It phased but then it left a piece behind which stretched out the trough positively tilted and prevented the system from amplifying. The kicker diving into ND didn’t help either. The pattern has huge upside but all these NS SWs flying around are making it difficult. 

Yeah, this was a cleaner evolution at 500mb.  Less random s/w's to muck things up.  A kicker still there though, yeah.

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