JakkelWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 2:07 PM, leesburg 04 said: I know but I like to see the big blown up graphics....it helps get the point across Expand Too small couldn't read the image. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 2:07 PM, leesburg 04 said: I know but I like to see the big blown up graphics....it helps get the point across Expand My optometrist would be proud 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 2:05 PM, mappy said: you know you can just copy the tweet directly instead of a screenshot Expand As someone whose work laptop blocks twitter, I appreciate it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 11:56 AM, Ji said: im guessing the 0z euro has no support lol? Looks like pure Northern S/W for the next 16 days that will result in dry clippers or Millers. We could really use a split flow. Our that ridge being more west Expand There is split flow out west actually but the blocking forces the NS to rip across the northern CONUS and there are 8,000 vorts flying across acting as a shred factory for anything that tries to come from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 NAM gets some snow into the OC area on Saturday. Might have to head to the beach this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Noise is a good word. @antmasiello There is a reason I've been hesitant this year to call things well in advance. When all the polar heights are retracted to one side of the NH and baroclinicity is poor (relative speaking), it becomes like a sickly free-for-all of waves in slow/choppy flow. Noisy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 1:32 PM, frd said: That is true, most events don't benefit us. However, it can weaken and perturb the vortex, a plus, but then the question becomes does it ruin or side track a pattern destined to be good ala 2018 possible, but sometimes they ( warmings ) do benefit the East. Already there is much hype on Accuu - Weather , CWG, private services. The official warming was Jan 5 th , so add 20 days = Jan 25 th to see the cold materialize as per HM. Expand The end of week 3 after a SSW is when the cold really starts to correlate but some have suggested that timeline can speed up some when the TPV was already weak. So seeing the cold appear towards day 15 on guidance isn’t out of line with normal progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Does anyone have a zoomed in GEFS member 18? I need it for... reasons... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z GFS is trying for the early next week storm. NS SW getting behind the southern one prompting higher heights out front. May or may not get it done but its a closer look. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 10:36 AM, CAPE said: It won't make any meaningful difference at the surface or 850 mb. It's still there and without any phasing, there is really no way for the coastal low to gain latitude with that compressed flow out in front. The only way this was going to work imo was if that NS vort ended up far enough west to at least partially phase in time. Expand You are 100% correct about what our best scenario was 3 days ago when that NS vort was diving down over Lake Erie. If that had trended west and come in through Michigan we were golden. But that ship sailed and at this point, while its very very very slim, it’s trended so far the other way that perhaps there is a slight crack open for this to come north some. That NS SW trended so far east it has allowed the upper low to trend back north. It’s actually taking a perfect track for us again after it looked to be squashed down into the Carolinas the last couple days. But there are 2 problems. Without the NS phase there isn’t much cold and so a very limited precip shield to the north of the low. That ship has sailed so moving on. But the other issue is the NS SW up near Maine now instead of NY starts to absorb the system and it’s opening up and washing out by the time it gets here. This is very unlikely at this range but not impossible that if the spacing can increase just a bit more that the h5 low could hold on an extra 12 hours or so and that could pull the storm up the coast and additional 50 miles or so but also increase the moisture flow off the Atlantic for a while. Get “this” adjustment to the look and suddenly a surprise is possible. Again not likely but not crazy impossible. If the adjustments to the NS continue at the same rate it would probably would happen but those adjustments become less likely as leads shorten so at some point I suspect they stop and we do see further north nudges but not to the degree we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS at H5 Is trying for next Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here. Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs. Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Lol...light rain then drifts east...Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Probably won't get it done this run but much improved at h5 and surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here. Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs. Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE. Expand And then falls apart... looked good through 120 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Very similar to what the ICON just spit out. So close to a phase or at least enough interaction to bring it further NW and expand the precip shield. Two decent runs imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:08 PM, yoda said: And then falls apart... looked good through 120 though Expand Good enough improvement for me from 6 days out. Yesterday the GFS had killed off the storm completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:11 PM, Chris78 said: Good enough improvement for me from 6 days out. Yesterday the GFS had killed off the storm completely. Expand This is true... h5 was much better as you and others above stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 3:59 PM, Rhino16 said: Does anyone have a zoomed in GEFS member 18? I need it for... reasons... Expand I assume you mean p17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:11 PM, poolz1 said: Very similar to what the ICON just spit out. So close to a phase or at least enough interaction to bring it further NW and expand the precip shield. Two decent runs imo. Expand That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:13 PM, Chris78 said: That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us Expand The one dropping into the Northern Plains at 156? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:13 PM, Chris78 said: That vort dropping in from behind has the look that could be good for us Expand Yeah, its not like we have good confluence to the north to block a west track or coastal hugger. A delicate setup where we have hit it just right....what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here. Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs. Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE. Expand I laughed..the results literally made me lol'd. We are cursed on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GFS is getting there. But it’s massive differences run to run at h5 have to give anyone pause, regardless of your desired outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:06 PM, WxUSAF said: Yeah, GFS should be pretty good here. Much cleaner 500mb evolution through ~120hrs. Precip shield expanding quickly in the SE. Expand Much better. It phased but then it left a piece behind which stretched out the trough positively tilted and prevented the system from amplifying. The kicker diving into ND didn’t help either. The pattern has huge upside but all these NS SWs flying around are making it difficult. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:14 PM, yoda said: The one dropping into the Northern Plains at 156? Expand The one dropping in behind the initial SW at 114 Edit - That could help pull the precip field further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:16 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS is getting there. But it’s massive differences run to run at h5 have to give anyone pause, regardless of your desired outcome. Expand This. This right here. THink it goes to our thinking...with the chaos could come rewards that could sneak right up on us. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:16 PM, stormtracker said: I laughed..the results literally made me lol'd. We are cursed on the GFS Expand Yeah, I don't now WTF that hot mess was. 500mb evolution was supportive of a coastal storm. Can't explain that surface solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 On 1/6/2021 at 4:17 PM, psuhoffman said: Much better. It phased but then it left a piece behind which stretched out the trough positively tilted and prevented the system from amplifying. The kicker diving into ND didn’t help either. The pattern has huge upside but all these NS SWs flying around are making it difficult. Expand Yeah, this was a cleaner evolution at 500mb. Less random s/w's to muck things up. A kicker still there though, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Look at the potential. Perhaps a bit far apart but hard not to notice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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