Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out... The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking Primary goes into Wisconsin and there's still blue over our area, so probably lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Well for laughs... at 360, the precip kinda goes poof over us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out... The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking This run the block actually retrogrades so far SW (into central Canada) that it blocks the trough in the west from progressing east at all. So it ends up a crazy solution. A little less extreme and that system comes east under the block instead of cutting up west of it then occluding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Few runs now that GFS has been keying into the 28/29...big ones are sniffed out early yadda yadda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Well for laughs... at 360, the precip kinda goes poof over us lol Read my last post to Ji. Block stops the whole trough from progressing. The system cuts west of it, occludes and dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2021 Author Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Read my last post to Ji. Block stops the whole trough from progressing. The system cuts west of it, occludes and dies. Yup I saw it... just thought I'd be Ji for once and complain about the Blues disappearing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: CMC ends up looking like GFS for next Thursday/Fri but warmer. That wave on the CMC on the 22nd isn’t the one the GFS amplifies. It gets squashed. The cmc then suppressed the wave on the 24 that the GFS gives places north of DC snow. The wave on the 22 has no real chance if the trough splits our west. The airmass isn’t cold enough yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I’ll take crazy too much blocking solutions at that range. Doubtful it verifies. You back the blocking off some to allow the trough out west to progress east and that was a big solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 So far I've seen nothing close to interesting as the dec 15 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I’ll take crazy too much blocking solutions at that range. Doubtful it verifies. You back the blocking off some to allow the trough out west to progress east and that was a big solution It literally died over the dmv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 @stormtracker para remarkably similar to op gfs but adjusted south... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: So far I've seen nothing close to interesting as the dec 15 storm That was a rare historic storm. Not here but it out down 40” in places and a huge area of 10”+. Your bar is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 That was a rare historic storm. Not here but it out down 40” in places and a huge area of 10”+. Your bar is ridiculous Yea but that storm happened before the pattern got amazing and it was waAY before peak climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I'm looking for the kind of storms we got in 57-58 with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 WB 0Z GEFS does not show much interest in next weekend, one good member.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was a rare historic storm. Not here but it out down 40” in places and a huge area of 10”+. Your bar is ridiculous Yea but that storm happened before the pattern got amazing and it was waAY before peak climo That was a pretty good pattern mid December that week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 @Ji the December setup wasn’t bad. Rex block north of AK. Ridging extending into Greenland. 50/50. Nice trough in the MS valley. We’ve snowed in much worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker para remarkably similar to op gfs but adjusted south... That'd be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Euro holding that vort back like the GFS :/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 WB EURO 12Z v. OZ for next week... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 ugh...that nothern vort killing what could have been a nice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 WB EURO 12Z v 0Z back to bed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Ha, might be a just in time transfer...riding the line hard with this one (I'm up to 204 on Pivotal, that's what I'm commenting on) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 WB EURO 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This run the block actually retrogrades so far SW (into central Canada) that it blocks the trough in the west from progressing east at all. So it ends up a crazy solution. A little less extreme and that system comes east under the block instead of cutting up west of it then occluding. Looked to me the NAO tries to link up with the SER which isn't crazy in this progression given the PAC. Remember, the PAC is running the show here essentially and if the ridge in the central PAC backs and pumps enough, then the SER naturally has a response to flex. Couple that with the retrograding NAO that attempts to link up and the pattern is teetering precariously on caving in on itself. Not saying this is right, but is certainly a viable solution given the progression in the PAC. You have been spot on discussion of the progression in the NAO, but we should be taking notes in recent times on how the PAC is dictating the conus pattern Moreso in recent years and what may have been gold just a few years ago has changed quite a bit. Again, not saying this is correct, but just something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: I'm looking for the kind of storms we got in 57-58 with this pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO 12Z v. OZ for next week... HP in N Plains replaced with LP. Minor changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 48 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ugh...that nothern vort killing what could have been a nice storm Ya gotta hope that...we get at least 4 chances in our prime window. That way, if we continue contend with these stupid vorts hopefully one or two of the 4 a northern vort WON'T ruin things. It's like literal dice...do ya roll a vort or no? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The pesky nothern vorts...is there anything in the pattern that can help prevent those (or push them south), or is that just a nina symptom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Putting on my Weather Will cap but.. PSU v2 storm looks ripe on the snow mean.. as good of a signal as you can get this far out As for the 21/22 threat.. this isn't actually a disappointing mean. We're south of the center of the mean and the 850s are borderline, but we have blocking on our side at the very least. Glad we're dealing with a signal rather than a flicker so to speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now