WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 49 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I just want to see some improvement on HH GFS for next week. Not expecting a SECS just a tick in the right direction. Happy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One major difference is how they handle the flow in Canada. The euro has a SW way up north out of the way while the GFS digs that further south just north of the lakes which impacts the flow over the US. Where the euro has a high over the top the gfs has a low creating a weakness for the storm to cut because of how they handle that feature. Does the storm really cut though? The blocking overtop pretty much keeps it on a west to east trejectory once it forms in the midwest. Just a little too far north from the get go to do us any good. If that low is in kentucky instead of Indiana/ohio we would get a transfer along the nc/va coast which could possibly put us in the game we would also most likely get a nice front end thump. Lots of options still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: "It reminds me of 2018" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I was wrong the euro digs it south not north. I was looking at different SWs. At 120 the gfs/euro are similar. Then they diverge...both have a SW coming into AK. The GFS amplifies it and it moves south east ending up north of the lakes wrecking the flow. Plus the southern end of the trough cuts off and gets stuck in the southwest. The euro dives that AK low south and phases with the southern SW and they come east with a high over the top where the low is on the gfs. Pretty major progression differences for only 120 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Happy? Well it’s different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Does the storm really cut though? The blocking overtop pretty much keeps it on a west to east trejectory once it forms in the midwest. Just a little too far north from the get go to do us any good. If that low is in kentucky instead of Indiana/ohio we would get a transfer along the nc/va coast which could possibly put us in the game. Lots of options still on the table. It starts in the TX panhandle and gets to Columbus before being stopped by the blocking. We can call it whatever, it’s not a pure cutter though. But it’s no good lol. But it took a lot going wrong to get that...it wouldn’t take much to see a better solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well it’s different It certainly is that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It certainly is that I don’t hate this gfs run. Absolutely beautiful look to the significant longwave features. Perfect NAO block and the epo ridge breaks so much so it cuts off into a Rex block north of AK which allows a vortex to cut south of Ak and pumps a PNA. I would rather see good things from large scale features driving the pattern the model is more likely to get right then details of discreet SWs flying around in the flow. Give me that progression and I’ll take my chances something works out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t hate this gfs run. Absolutely beautiful look to the significant longwave features. Perfect NAO block and the epo ridge breaks so much so it cuts off into a Rex block north of AK which allows a vortex to cut south of Ak and pumps a PNA. I would rather see good things from large scale features driving the pattern the model is more likely to get right then details of discreet SWs flying around in the flow. Give me that progression and I’ll take my chances something works out. Is it just me or are the models really flip-flopping on that EPO ridge? Seems like every other run its either gone or raging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, LP08 said: Nice trend on the 18z gfs for the “Euro Storm”. The High Pressure in South Central Canada is about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It starts in the TX panhandle and gets to Columbus before being stopped by the blocking. We can call it whatever, it’s not a pure cutter though. But it’s no good lol. But it took a lot going wrong to get that...it wouldn’t take much to see a better solution. It is an evolving situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Para blues us twice during the 18z run and ends with what is probably a snow/ice to rain deal. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The period around the 26th seems the most favorable of all the hypothetical waves were watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Fwiw, extended GEFS shifts the pesky SE/mid south ridge westward by months end, with a continued very favorable look up top. Pretty good outcome heading into Feb if this happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Fwiw, extended GEFS shifts the pesky SE/mid south ridge westward by months end, with a continued very favorable look up top. Pretty good outcome heading into Feb if this happens. Yeah. Great to see that the -NAO continues for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The period around the 26th seems the most favorable of all the hypothetical waves were watching. I remember you posting something similar in Jan 2016 about which period to key on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Yeah. Great to see that the -NAO continues for the foreseeable future. More ridging out west and colder air directed eastward is the big take away with that look- not to downplay the continued blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Just a matter of time. Probably shorter than we think. Feeling good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just a matter of time. Probably shorter than we think. Feeling good Gotta like the chances with the persistence up top, despite the Pac doing its best to eff it all up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gotta like the chances with the persistence up top, despite the Pac doing its best to eff it all up. Yep, if this was a one week blip at a -NAO, it’s one thing....but the fact that it seems to persist and linger makes me bullish we score eventually. And if we don’t, we’re fooked and should just accept the fact that it’ll never snow in the cities/SE again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yep, if this was a one week blip at a -NAO, it’s one thing....but the fact that it seems to persist and linger makes me bullish we score eventually. And if we don’t, we’re fooked and should just accept the fact that it’ll never snow in the cities/SE again. I pretty much agree with everything u said. And I'm convinced we WILL score and likely score big. Patience will pay off. Just have to see if its gonna be a one and done, a couple of weeks of sustained winter with a couple of SECS, a slow buildup to a consistent producing pattern, a KU Archambault event, etc. It will happen sooner than later and my confidence is sold on the fact the HL blocking isn't going anywhere even when the LR and weeklies at the end were showing otherwise. We are kicking the pattern flip can over and over and that is a great sign. Like someone else said, this isn't a shutout look where we aren't scoring. This is a pretty much sustained workable pattern evolving with loads of chances. We've just had a string of poor luck past 10 days. Things are about to break in our favor. 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I pretty much agree with everything u said. And I'm convinced we WILL score and likely score big. Patience will pay off. Just have to see if its gonna be a one and done, a couple of weeks of sustained winter with a couple of SECS, a slow buildup to a consistent producing pattern, a KU Archambault event, etc. It will happen sooner than later and my confidence is sold on the fact the HL blocking isn't going anywhere even when the LR and weeklies at the end were showing otherwise. We are kicking the pattern flip can over and over and that is a great sign. Like someone else said, this isn't a shutout look where we aren't scoring. This is a pretty much sustained workable pattern evolving with loads of chances. We've just had a string of poor luck past 10 days. Things are about to break in our favor. Oh, sorry I was talking about the mid-Atlantic scoring. You’re too far north as the blocking will just push all the blizzards straight into this area. There’s always next year for you!!! 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: I remember you posting something similar in Jan 2016 about which period to key on. I’ve been wrong plenty of times too though. Lol that one in 2016 was easy to see the setup from REALLY far out. Even though it didn’t really show on ops until about 9 days out the setup was crystal clear well before that from the way the pattern was progressing although I think I might have originally targeted a day or two too soon as the wave slowed a lot. I also “saw” that 2011 and the Feb 2010 storms from really far out but those were slightly less difficult patterns. The blocking was similar but we didn’t have the raging pac jet we do now. That complicates things. I would not put this threat (late Jan) quite at the same level of confidence as those long range calls. But it’s very good. If those were level 10 (for long range) this is an 8 level. There is more that could go wrong here with the current pac but it’s still a very good chance. I am intrigued by the progression. We’re kind of stuck in a squeeze play. The EPO ridge will put more cold into the US. It will be centered out west initially but it will bleed east under the block more behind each wave. At the same time as the NAO Rex block retrogrades SW from Greenland into Northern Quebec the blocked flow will intensify. That will trap more cold in from the northeast (that over time bleeds into the pattern). At the same time the weakness between the western trough and the eastern trough will allow gulf systems to organize and try to cut. But that will become increasingly difficult as the block retrogrades. I’m simply playing that progression out and “guessing” about the 26-28th is the magic spot where there is enough cold into the pattern and the block has retrograded enough to get something trying to cut to get forced to secondary under us. Hybrid miller b. Those can be NICE. Hopefully my imagination is close to reality. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I am not saying the wave around the 22-23 couldn’t work. It’s has a decent shot. Just saying imo the progression gets even more favorable just after that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 One of the contributing factors to the fail of the last pulse of the high latitude blocking was the orientation and progression. The wave break in the Atlantic was mediocre, the NAO ridge was actually enhanced by a mid latitude ridge originating from the pac that transported poleward and linked with the NAO ridge. The result was an elongated inverted omega block extending NE to SW and instead of retrograding it faded northeast. That is not really the greatest configuration or progression for is to score. There were other contributors like lack of cold and fast pac jet but the block itself wasn’t ideal. This next iteration looks like a much more “classic” progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: One of the contributing factors to the fail of the last pulse of the high latitude blocking was the orientation and progression. The wave break in the Atlantic was mediocre, the NAO ridge was actually enhanced by a mid latitude ridge originating from the pac that transported poleward and linked with the NAO ridge. The result was an elongated inverted omega block extending NE to SW and instead of retrograding it faded northeast. That is not really the greatest configuration or progression for is to score. There were other contributors like lack of cold and fast pac jet but the block itself wasn’t ideal. This next iteration looks like a much more “classic” progression. Great catch and thanks for the explanation. And its a legit west/Baffin block too on guidance. I’ll take my chances with that any winter especially with a 50/50 that seems fairly persistent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I have started a little project to keep track of the the GEFS ensemble mean temperature predictions in MBY. For every daily run at 18z, I am entering the 2m temp prediction for each 24 hours thereafter (as taken from TT). I noticed a sharp warming in the predicted temps for the 6 - 10 day period between 18z yesterday and 18z today. This matches BAMWx post someone posted a few hours ago. Can anyone comment on the EPS temp profile form the 12z run? Is it seeing any nice cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I have started a little project to keep track of the the GEFS ensemble mean temperature predictions in MBY. For every daily run at 18z, I am entering the 2m temp prediction for each 24 hours thereafter (as taken from TT). I noticed a sharp warming in the predicted temps for the 6 - 10 day period between 18z yesterday and 18z today. This matches BAMWx post someone posted a few hours ago. Can anyone comment on the EPS temp profile form the 12z run? Is it seeing any nice cold? EPS has AN temps until Day 10. Then it gets a little colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EPS has AN temps until Day 10. Then it gets a little colder. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I am not saying the wave around the 22-23 couldn’t work. It’s has a decent shot. Just saying imo the progression gets even more favorable just after that. So maybe the storm after the storm.. We play that card many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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