WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Now is the time for something to say that’s an impressive mean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MocoMike Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed? When I look at this, I think it is going to cut. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, MocoMike said: Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed? When I look at this, I think it is going to cut. Thoughts? Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, chris21 said: Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there. Pretty warm out in front-- despite the NAO and lower heights near 50/50. IT's a timing issue where cold air is coming at the same time as the storm. Could end up 300 miles north or south depending on timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro OP definitely has some support from the eps for next Thursday/Friday. Control has a big hit just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Euro OP definitely has some support from the eps for next Thursday/Friday. Control has a big hit just to the south. Can you post the control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Can you post the control? 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: And there is your gradient pattern overunning look. Juicy and west to east. We can get some of our biggest thumps with these. Let's keep it going! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: That southern look is just where I want it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Agreed.....lets make this happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, MocoMike said: Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed? When I look at this, I think it is going to cut. Thoughts? Here's the ensemble 850 temps during the peak of precip (198hrs) Seems pretty darn borderline, however, here is the same panel at 0z Even with the SER flexing itself ahead of time, the 850s still are manageable. Surface temps aren't the best, but it's still not a bad place to be this far out. This seems like a characteristic of overrunning, no? Borderline 850s and a thump of moisture. Certainly beats looking at a South Carolina bullseye at this length out, at least imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I don't really care about temps at this point (when they are that borderline). We can't even keep a storm from getting shredded lately so I'd rather see a potent system/moisture and worry about borderline temps closer in when models pick up on thermals more accurately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, IronTy said: That southern look is just where I want it right now. How’s that worked out recently? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 is the control run the same as the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, flsch22 said: is the control run the same as the mean? No. It has the identical inputs as the operational euro but run at the resolution of the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How’s that worked out recently? Nothing's worked at all for the past two years to the day so I'm sure it'll be gone by morning. But it's on weatherbug so I'm getting the feeling this time is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, flsch22 said: is the control run the same as the mean? No. The mean is the average of all the members. The control is a member that has the same input as the op but run at a lower resolution. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The member view is getting much 'bluer' with each run... several nice hits in there now: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I just want to see some improvement on HH GFS for next week. Not expecting a SECS just a tick in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Extended blocking is a possibility. @SimonLeeWx MSLP forecasts for February-April from this month's update to the @CopernicusECMWF seasonal suite. Some suggestion of negative NAO lasting into March. Note that JMA, Météo-France, NCEP & UKMO have a weaker SSW signal because they are time-lagged ensembles. @SimonLeeWx Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability of a major SSW, versus 100% from SEAS5. Very different tropospheric forecasts likely a result of this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: The member view is getting much 'bluer' with each run... several nice hits in there now: I will go out on a limb and say that this is our first real snow threat, for SE of I-95. I will probably get burned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 If I remember correctly, last week there was a signal for something around the 20-22nd. I would think that it is good that it is still there, or is back. But we still have another week to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This is 3 days in a row the Euro has been sniffing something out on the 21st. I can't wait to get this threat to the other thread! We need something to track in the short range!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 DT's take on the GEFS earlier today. Interesting seeing the EPS flip-flop with the GEFS as being the coolest/most wintry ensemble now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, frd said: Extended blocking is a possibility. @SimonLeeWx MSLP forecasts for February-April from this month's update to the @CopernicusECMWF seasonal suite. Some suggestion of negative NAO lasting into March. Note that JMA, Météo-France, NCEP & UKMO have a weaker SSW signal because they are time-lagged ensembles. @SimonLeeWx Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability of a major SSW, versus 100% from SEAS5. Very different tropospheric forecasts likely a result of this! Still no sign of blocking breaking down. But it has to actually help at some point lol. My guess if it holds i through early Feb it will. Kinda hard to run a block through Jan 20-Feb 10 and not snow. That would be something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Nice trend on the 18z gfs for the “Euro Storm”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.Euro worked cause it came in early enough to interact with some hp/cad. Gfs is a few days after Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason. One major difference is how they handle the flow in Canada. The euro has a SW way up north out of the way while the GFS digs that further south just north of the lakes which impacts the flow over the US. Where the euro has a high over the top the gfs has a low creating a weakness for the storm to cut because of how they handle that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Euro worked cause it came in early enough to interact with some hp/cad. Gfs is a few days after Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Yeah, even with the terrible track on the GFS it's still ice to drizzle to dry slot. Shows you what a block can do. Still in the game. Big threat window is still open imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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