pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i actually dont get excited about blue on the maps unless i see it 3-4 runs in a row. But everytime we have a good trend, the next 3-4 runs are 5 steps back. thats the realistic perspective. and at any given day or timestamp during a "good" period, you can often find blue over your house. Yes, we also see the same trends you see, but just dont flip sh!t every 6 hours. You've been at this almost as long as i have and should know that very rarely do we get into longwave stable patterns that just are chalk fulla blue over your house. Of late, we've become experts at bootleggin more times than not. Regardless, the upcoming period will continue to show you blue at varying intervals on varying models...and when we start seeing consensue build...I'll get excited right along w/ you. Until then....keep it real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 seems like the models with high pressure are giving us the blue.....even though it isnt the best CAD ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: finally a model that shows what is suppose to happen in a blocking pattern. Not a cutter like GFS(which should be de-activated until we get it right) shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: seems like the models with high pressure are giving us the blue.....even though it isnt the best CAD ever. Ops need time grasshopper......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, IronTy said: weatherbug must see the 850 temps at -22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is the only model showing this nice snow, i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro is a nice psychological boost. But it changes every 12 hours and has no support. Just this once, can we get something to f*cking stick 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun I believe this time it works out, if it's still 2 out of 3 at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro is a nice psychological boost. But it changes every 12 hours and has no support. Just this once, can we get something to f*cking stickIt was on the verge of something big last night right? So 2 good runs in a row?Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: weatherbug must see the 850 temps at -22 My sources assure me that it's a proprietary model that takes into account all the dynamical(tm) data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Do I still get 21" on the 27th? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 The GFS, Para, CMC, and ECMWF all show a wave moving E/NE out of the texas/arkansas area mid-late next week. It's even there on the JMA and NAVGEM and ICON. For 8 days out its something worth looking at... looking for crumbs here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Great atmospheric parameters, coldest point in the year, the most common time these storms show themselves near day 8. I honestly don't know what possibly could go wrong. Other then those 10,000 other things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro is trying hard to make it blue day 8 Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, RedSky said: ECM is the only model showing this nice snow, Doesn't matter. Hug the living piss outta that shit bro! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ji said: seems like the models with high pressure are giving us the blue.....even though it isnt the best CAD ever. Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro is a nice psychological boost. But it changes every 12 hours and has no support. Just this once, can we get something to f*cking stick This is 3 days in a row the Euro has been sniffing something out on the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ji said: i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range. Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real. Hopefully its cookin' up something good for us. see what I did there? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Doesn't matter. Hug the living piss outta that shit bro! For the record, weatherbug sniffed that out first. I'm really liking a threat withing d10. Might have to mount the blade on the Muck Truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence. He already knew that....just needed to read a post sayin it so he could tell his friends....... I read it on the internet. Alright JI, I'm done for now. You got your blue for at least 6 hrs (on a couple models mind you). Relish the time my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Does this storm get pushed further south from what the Euro is modeling with the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range. Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough I googled that pork thingy youre makin. What time shall we be over? Sounds delish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: Does this storm get pushed further south from what the Euro is modeling with the block? IMO ops are still trying to correct w/ the blocking, but to your point, look at the last 2 storms and how they looked a week ago vs where they ended up (shredder). Indicies suggest suppression is a valid worry, but until you stop seeing systems headed for Chicago, and everything going under us....then i'd start to worry. I think next couple days start to shed light on strength of NAO/EPO/AO and what it translates to here in the MA. FWIW we all are better positioned than interior NE, as its frozen popcorn farts for the forseeable future for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I googled that pork thingy youre makin. What time shall we be over? Sounds delish... Stuffing I made was baby kale, butternut squash, caramelized onion, toasted pecan, craisins, pears, and blue cheese. Back to wx.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 WB 12Z EURO....for late next week. Hopefully something still to track at 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MocoMike Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Last 24 hours of the Euro....Does it keep trending and go to our north or does the block do it's work? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Thanks Will. Lets hope we can get this under 150hrs or so. That seems to be the fall apart point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Someone smart can interpret but this looks like a nice panel to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 WB 12Z EPS. Note this is all from late next week 15th and onward. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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