frd Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Less than 1.5” snow mean on the GEFS through the next 13 days doesn’t inspire much confidence for winter weather. Ha, ninja’d by PSU. Some so called experts on other boards , not here , get pissy when you mention temps, but it so true. Source region matters despite the massive block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Less than 1.5” snow mean on the GEFS through the next 13 days doesn’t inspire much confidence for winter weather. Ha, ninja’d by PSU. True, but just 24 hours ago the GEFS mean was 4”. Not saying things will work out but as you know these snow means can fluctuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Gefs is beyond frustrating through day 13. The means look good wrt precip/temps but nada on the snow maps. Looking into individual members reveals why. The temps are skewed colder by cold dry members. The wet members are warm. It’s either suppressed members or cutters. Lol Cutters are meteorological impossibilies in this pattern. You know better than to make an ensemble snow map give you any emotion either way. Where it showed us 8 or 1Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, frd said: Some so called experts on other boards , not here , get pissy when you mention temps, but it so true. Source region matters despite the massive block. We’re also getting a lot of bad luck here. We’ve been cold enough, not cold but cold enough, to snow recently but the last several waves got shredded. We need less split of the trough in this upcoming pattern. I still doubt these cutter looks with that block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Cutters are meteorological impossibilies in this pattern. You know better than to make an ensemble snow map give you any emotion either way. Where it showed us 8 or 1 Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk I’m pointing out what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re also getting a lot of bad luck here. We’ve been cold enough, not cold but cold enough, to snow recently but the last several waves got shredded. We need less split of the trough in this upcoming pattern. I still doubt these cutter looks with that block. 10 minutes ago, frd said: Some so called experts on other boards , not here , get pissy when you mention temps, but it so true. Source region matters despite the massive block. At we work so cant do detailed look. How is the source region looking over the next 10 day in general on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Cutters are meteorological impossibilies in this pattern. You know better than to make an ensemble snow map give you any emotion either way. Where it showed us 8 or 1 Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk So long as that blocking is there we will have a shot at every wave. But there is a real problem on the pac side. The ridge is retrograding too fast and really pulling the us trough too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What para are you looking at? The one the just threw 6 shots of precip at us in a period that looks to have potential. I'm not JI, and don't need to see BLUE over my house for every event to realize that opportunities are on the horizon. If you cant see the same potential...I guess I'm a little surprised at that. While we cant shovel potential, we need potential to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: The one the just threw 6 shots of precip at us in a period that looks to have potential. I'm not JI, and don't need to see BLUE over my house for every event to realize that opportunities are on the horizon. If you cant see the same potential...I guess I'm a little surprised at that. While we cant shovel potential, we need potential to shovel. I see the potential. I’ve been leading the charge on the potential. But the way you worded it confused me. “That would be a memorable run” threw me. Not if it went down exactly as shown lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So long as that blocking is there we will have a shot at every wave. But there is a real problem on the pac side. The ridge is retrograding too fast and really pulling the us trough too far west. NINAs hate us lol. My Ji post for the month. 12z GEFS looks active the last few days of the month. Some nice hits among the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I see the potential. I’ve been leading the charge on the potential. But the way you worded it confused me. “That would be a memorable run” threw me. Not if it went down exactly as shown lol. does dizzying/notable/exciting make you feel better.... point is, there is an active pattern shaping up, and while not every one goes our way, chances are that we can score on 1 or 2 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and while the weenie in us is all in for the Para to be on point (just watched the loop and yeah...that'd make for a memorable stretch of winter for all of us). Its an Op run. Gut says ol man GFS is about to belly under in the coming days as tellies suggest it should. Yeah we've been fooled before, but we've got multiple indicies in our favor....not just 1. huh? saw nothing on the PAra that was memorable...unless you like no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: NINAs hate us lol. My Ji post for the month. 12z GEFS looks active the last few days of the month. Some nice hits among the members. just stop dude....that 15-16 days away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: The one the just threw 6 shots of precip at us in a period that looks to have potential. I'm not JI, and don't need to see BLUE over my house for every event to realize that opportunities are on the horizon. If you cant see the same potential...I guess I'm a little surprised at that. While we cant shovel potential, we need potential to shovel. yes we need to see blue over our house. There has been no blue on the models and no white in your yard so yes...if you dont see blue...there is legit concern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: huh? saw nothing on the PAra that was memorable...unless you like no snow honestly dude....take a break and come back when you get some snow.... Weather isnt Amazon...you just don't see something on a screen that you like, order it.... and have it show up in (what used to be) 2 days. The period coming up has potential....yes stones have been kicked down the road.... blah blah blah. Stop focusing on living and dying every 6 hours....it really takes away from the skill you have, because you should be better than this by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: just stop dude....that 15-16 days away It was in response to his earlier post about it looking frustrating through day 13. Now peel your panties out of your ass crack. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: yes we need to see blue over our house. There has been no blue on the models and no white in your yard so yes...if you dont see blue...there is legit concern Nah, I dont look at weather/life like you do.....my wife woulda left me a LOONNNGGGGGG time ago. Try taking a look from a realist perspectve...not the 1 run that gave you 12+. It really helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 euro is going to be close--closer than the GFS Or para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro is trying hard to make it blue day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Nah, I dont look at weather/life like you do.....my wife woulda left me a LOONNNGGGGGG time ago. Try taking a look from a realist perspectve...not the 1 run that gave you 12+. It really helps. i actually dont get excited about blue on the maps unless i see it 3-4 runs in a row. But everytime we have a good trend, the next 3-4 runs are 5 steps back. thats the realistic perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: euro is going to be close--closer than the GFS Or para but..... theres no BLUE over your house...... toss it. Good lord you need to change your name to flip flop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Euro is trying hard to make it blue day 8 now that is blue---but that looks like playing with fire haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: but..... theres no BLUE over your house...... toss it. Good lord you need to change your name to flip flop did you see the rest of the run.....blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: euro is going to be close--closer than the GFS Or para This is the period my weatherbug app says to expect snow at my house. Lock it in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: now that is blue---but that looks like playing with fire haha You should by a lifetime supply of Dramamine.....they say it really helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: This is the period my weatherbug app says to expect snow at my house. Lock it in. finally a model that shows what is suppose to happen in a blocking pattern. Not a cutter like GFS(which should be de-activated until we get it right) shows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 ECM is the only model showing this nice snow, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: You should by a lifetime supply of Dramamine.....they say it really helps. seeing blue to me makes all the difference. Now i have a model that is one you would like to have in your corner. Now it means shit if it shows rain at 00z which it will likely do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ji said: seeing blue to me makes all the difference. Now i have a model that is one you would like to have in your corner. Now it means shit if it shows rain at 00z which it will likely do but as RedSky pointed out...it's on an island...still nice to see blue and it fits more than a cutter...its a nice start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: but as RedSky pointed out...it's on an island...still nice to see blue and it fits more than a cutter...its a nice start i would say the GGEM supports it somewhat no? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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