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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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3 hours ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

 

Psu Interestig comments by Anthony here wondering what to make of it.

If forcing shifts later in the month of January especially with the latest forecast that show cold over the Eastern United States do you care to elaborate on what your feelings are regarding the progression of forcing in the West Pac. 

Replying to
I've been thinking about preseason/years like 88-89 showing up. Then I see the pattern ahead, etc. & tropical forcing reorganizing to Maritimes for Feb. You have to wonder if we see a rapid flip to very cold in W-C US. This would be a lot easier if polar state was more 1980s like
 

So far the Mjo hasn’t been a major influencer this year. Could it become more dominant and could it shift back to the MC....lots of could there and that’s a long way out. I won’t pretend to know. 

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0z Euro is certainly more suppressed, not a cave to the GFS, but quite the shift.. although the interesting thing is that the storm gains latitude earlier than it's 0z counterpart, near the Louisiana coast rather than over Tallahassee. 18z EPS did the same IIRC, so perhaps that's our ticket to getting the storm up here?

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

0z Euro is certainly more suppressed, not a cave to the GFS, but quite the shift.. although the interesting thing is that the storm gains latitude earlier than it's 0z counterpart, near the Louisiana coast rather than over Tallahassee. 18z EPS did the same IIRC, so perhaps that's our ticket to getting the storm up here?

204 Euro OMG crazy storm. Ripping snow for the whole area

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Euro ftw.  Weird how it got there tho.  But it's a significant storm for us

It washed the initial wave out because of the monster wave amplifying right behind it.  The evolution at h5 of that system was very similar to Jan 1996. Beautiful monster closed h5 low with a perfect track. That solution didn’t even maximize potential. The storm got a late start because of the initial wave running the baroclinic zone and deep moisture feed off the coast ahead of it but the upper level pattern was so perfect another storm exploded behind it anyways as the upper low got close enough to tap whatever gulf and Atlantic moisture left. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It washed the initial wave out because of the monster wave amplifying right behind it.  The evolution at h5 of that system was very similar to Jan 1996. Beautiful monster closed h5 low with a perfect track. That solution didn’t even maximize potential. The storm got a late start because of the initial wave running the baroclinic zone and deep moisture feed off the coast ahead of it but the upper level pattern was so perfect another storm exploded behind it anyways as the upper low got close enough to tap whatever gulf and Atlantic moisture left. 

Ah ok, thanks for the explainer.  This is why I thought it was weird because it was so close on the heels of the frontrunning wave.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ah ok, thanks for the explainer.  This is why I thought it was weird because it was so close on the heels of the frontrunning wave.  

It was a little odd how it didn’t phase the initial wave and instead had it wash out in favor of the wave behind. But the h5 evolution of that second wave was just classic. It was a nice ending to a very good night. Cheers. 

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44 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Significant changes at H5 continue to happen on the GFS with that piece of energy up north this weekend. In the past 4 runs it went from northern Maine to Labrador. Surface doesn't look much better but things haven't finished trending in the right direction.

It won't make any meaningful difference at the surface or 850 mb. It's still there and without any phasing, there is really no way for the coastal low to gain latitude with that compressed flow out in front. The only way this was going to work imo was if that NS vort ended up far enough west to at least partially phase in time.

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43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It won't make any meaningful difference at the surface or 850 mb. It's still there and without any phasing, there is really no way for the coastal low to gain latitude with that compressed flow out in front. The only way this was going to work imo was if that NS vort ended up far enough west to at least partially phase in time.

We’ve got time to get that flow a little further east LOL. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We’ve got time to get that flow a little further east LOL. 

I will keep watching it lol. Heck my yard would be a decent spot to benefit, but even for me it would take some major changes that seem unlikely at this range. At this point coastal SBY over towards coastal DE may see some light precip on the NW edge.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

im guessing the 0z euro has no support lol? Looks like pure Northern S/W for the next 16 days that will result in dry clippers or Millers. We could really use a split flow. Our that ridge being more west

Still a signal for something, but not as good as the 12z run. Lets see if I can do the bingo card thing.

we are still in the game

plenty of time for changes- still 6 days out

we just cant know

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are 36 days into Met Winter and alot of people still havent seen their first inch with nothing in sight. Sad!

I have seen 14 flakes man. And my brother in Greensboro NC is getting actual snow in a couple days. 

patience

the better pattern has not yet begun

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Still a signal for something, but not as good as the 12z run. Lets see if I can do the bingo card thing.

we are still in the game(because its winter so were always in the game)

plenty of time for changes- still 6 days out(for things to go even worse

we just cant know(we kind of do. No snow for you,me or DT)

 

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