howrdcounty snow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 well son of a gun, now we have a ku to possibly track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: well son of a gun, now we have a ku to possibly track Pretty sure the PAC will make sure we cross that worry off our list. We’ll be tracking the western trough and SER. Let’s see what 6z GFS shits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Pretty sure the PAC will make sure we cross that worry off our list. We’ll be tracking the western trough and SER. Let’s see what 6z GFS shits out. aw I don't consider it a worry, more like a joyous event considering how much snow we have had so far, I don't know what a SER is, there is always something wrong to us getting snow, but WTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: aw I don't consider it a worry, more like a joyous event considering how much snow we have had so far, I don't know what a SER is South East Ridge. Our arch nemesis....sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: South East Ridge. Our arch nemesis....sometimes 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: South East Ridge. Our arch nemesis....sometimes thanks, I don't post very much so I appreciate your comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: thanks, I don't post very much so I appreciate your comments With the advertised block and the SER we could have a scenario where the convergence over where ever it sets up allows for a nice overrunning event. The where it sets up part can be problematic. Pray to be in the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 I remember the last great over running event , my mother died the next morning, got almost 2 ft 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, howrdcounty snow said: I remember the last great over running event , my mother died the next morning, got almost 2 ft If you look at the GFS post 300 you will see the SER in all its glory. That big closed circle of hate off the SC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: If you look at the GFS post 300 you will see the SER in all its glory. That big closed circle of hate off the SC coast It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed. Bristow is the master of looking at post 300 hr op runs and predicting temps. We all have our role right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Jan 21-24 has a pretty good signal on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Jan 21-24 has a pretty good signal on the GEFS. Yeah I was just looking at that. EPS does too. Some potential with the h5 look here, with a coastal storm implied on the mean, but would need some minor shifts in timing wrt the moisture/advancing cold/transfer verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Spotsylvania County will probably announce school closings for this soon. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed. Agreed. And if anything the means have been hinting that feature retrogrades West. Even hints it develops into a PNA ridge. Odd evolution but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Euro has a much better 50/50 for the day 9-10 event which is why it is colder. You see on the OP gfs and cmc what happens without it. Temps would struggle as H5 ULL and HP placement isn’t ideal. Looks like a classic thump setup though. Not a great airmass yet, I think that comes the week of the 25th, but def a signal for an event on the 22-23rd, just going to rely on the placement and strength of 50/50. Lately, (most of the time anyway) the models cave to the euro so hopefully we see some colder solutions on the globals today for next week. I think the potential prime pattern setup starts Sunday the 24 through that week as -epo colder temps start seeping into the region. Get some -pna energy to start heading east with the block in place hopefully things work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Euro has a much better 50/50 for the day 9-10 event which is why it is colder. You see on the OP gfs and cmc what happens without it. Temps would struggle as H5 ULL and HP placement isn’t ideal. Looks like a classic thump setup though. Not a great airmass yet, I think that comes the week of the 25th, but def a signal for an event on the 22-23rd, just going to rely on the placement and strength of 50/50. Lately, (most of the time anyway) the models cave to the euro so hopefully we see some colder solutions on the globals today for next week. I think the potential prime pattern setup starts Sunday the 24 through that week as -epo colder temps start seeping into the region. Get some -pna energy to start heading east with the block in place hopefully things work out. Cmon, I can't possibly be the only one noticing that we have been kicking the can on day 9-10 op threats. We went from Jan 3 threat, to Jan 7, to Jan 11, to Jan 15, to Jan 18, Jan 22, and now hearing "but the best setup won't be here until after the 25th". Look, I'm optimistic....keep that HL block and keep throwing chances and eventually we will score. But continually pursuing something on an OP 9-10 days out is torture. Get those 'legit' threats under 144 hrs and we can talk. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Cmon, I can't possibly be the only one noticing that we have been kicking the can on day 9-10 op threats. We went from Jan 3 threat, to Jan 7, to Jan 11, to Jan 15, to Jan 18, Jan 22, and now hearing "but the best setup won't be here until after the 25th". Look, I'm optimistic....keep that HL block and keep throwing chances and eventually we will score. But continually pursuing something on an OP 9-10 days out is torture. Get those 'legit' threats under 144 hrs and we can talk. Yeah, but what else is there to talk about Ralph lol. New eagles coach?! James harden a sizer?! There’s not really a good shot for anything until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cmon, I can't possibly be the only one noticing that we have been kicking the can on day 9-10 op threats. We went from Jan 3 threat, to Jan 7, to Jan 11, to Jan 15, to Jan 18, Jan 22, and now hearing "but the best setup won't be here until after the 25th". Look, I'm optimistic....keep that HL block and keep throwing chances and eventually we will score. But continually pursuing something on an OP 9-10 days out is torture. Get those 'legit' threats under 144 hrs and we can talk. I agree with this but those two chances in Jan were noticed through the ensembles as periods of interest and imo we were unlucky with the NS sws being perfectly timed to crush everything coming north. The one where it snowed in SW VA was because of the block and that little sucker pinwheeled down at the absolute wrong time, it happens. I think we have been in a favorable period and have been completely unlucky to not see anything. Definitely not a Hecs pattern but at least some winter could have happened during these two weeks of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cmon, I can't possibly be the only one noticing that we have been kicking the can on day 9-10 op threats. We went from Jan 3 threat, to Jan 7, to Jan 11, to Jan 15, to Jan 18, Jan 22, and now hearing "but the best setup won't be here until after the 25th". Look, I'm optimistic....keep that HL block and keep throwing chances and eventually we will score. But continually pursuing something on an OP 9-10 days out is torture. Get those 'legit' threats under 144 hrs and we can talk. My weatherbug app is showing a snow threat next Thurs/Fri. It's been more accurate than any of the actual models so there's that... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: It really never becomes an issue on the means. With the weenie HL look being advertised, other than something very brief/weak, the SER will be suppressed. and i dare say a necessary evil unless you are into suppression depression. Scary i know, but we might need forcing to bring things up this way as battle zone might be too far south. Guess we'll know in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Canada still above, still awaiting a change, maybe by the end of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah, but what else is there to talk about Ralph lol. New eagles coach?! James harden a sizer?! There’s not really a good shot for anything until then. I'm willing to bet, maybe not this week, but at some point soon we will back into a system in the MR that wasn't progged on a day 9-10 maps as being anything substantial. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 7 hours ago, stormtracker said: Nevermind. Effing block from hell man. Almost got to us That suppressed storm is north on the ensemble and Gfs so I don’t mind seeing the euro south. Still think we see even better opportunities as the block retrogrades but that isn’t a bad window. 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cmon, I can't possibly be the only one noticing that we have been kicking the can on day 9-10 op threats. We went from Jan 3 threat, to Jan 7, to Jan 11, to Jan 15, to Jan 18, Jan 22, and now hearing "but the best setup won't be here until after the 25th". Look, I'm optimistic....keep that HL block and keep throwing chances and eventually we will score. But continually pursuing something on an OP 9-10 days out is torture. Get those 'legit' threats under 144 hrs and we can talk. So we should close this thread then since this is for pattern and threats 7+ days out? We have a different thread for day 3-6 stuff now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, frd said: Canada still above, still awaiting a change, maybe by the end of Jan. It’s a fair amount cooler than it has been recently however so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That suppressed storm is north on the ensemble and Gfs so I don’t mind seeing the euro south. Still think we see even better opportunities as the block retrogrades but that isn’t a bad window. So we should close this thread then since this is for pattern and threats 7+ days out? We have a different thread for day 3-6 stuff now. Not sure how/ why but maybe Wiggie has taken to Ji's infectious persona..... I'm of the mindset (like many) that with the upcoming pattern and the ebs and flows of change we are seeing on the models, that it wont take too much to luck into something (appetizer kinds stuff) while waiting for that 372hr shellacking to get closer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure how/ why but maybe Wiggie has taken to Ji's infectious persona..... I'm of the mindset (like many) that with the upcoming pattern and the ebs and flows of change we are seeing on the models, that it wont take too much to luck into something (appetizer kinds stuff) while waiting for that 372hr shellacking to get closer.... It's not going to deliver south of 41N or so. Even the historic Madrid snows occurred north of us and that was a perfect setup. In regards to the snow in Lousiana.. we won't be able to repeat that insane blocking so there's that. Strato PV thoroughly recycled and probably somewhat crippled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: It's not going to deliver south of 41N or so. Even the historic Madrid snows occurred north of us and that was a perfect setup. In regards to the snow in Lousiana.. we won't be able to repeat that insane blocking so there's that. Strato PV thoroughly recycled and probably somewhat crippled. Oops....I forgot to add one name to Ji's wreckin crew............ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure how/ why but maybe Wiggie has taken to Ji's infectious persona..... I'm of the mindset (like many) that with the upcoming pattern and the ebs and flows of change we are seeing on the models, that it wont take too much to luck into something (appetizer kinds stuff) while waiting for that 372hr shellacking to get closer.... I'm not being pessimistic. I'm actually still cautiously optimistic. Just impatient like many of us are becoming. Heck, if it takes until the last week of Feb to score thats still a win. The waiting is the hardest part. And yes @psuhoffman u r right I forget about the midrange thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not being pessimistic. I'm actually still cautiously optimistic. Just impatient like many of us are becoming. Heck, if it takes until the last week of Feb to score thats still a win. The waiting is the hardest part. And yes @psuhoffman u r right I forget about the midrange thread. Ralph go make a meatloaf or something 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not being pessimistic. I'm actually still cautiously optimistic. Just impatient like many of us are becoming. Heck, if it takes until the last week of Feb to score thats still a win. The waiting is the hardest part. And yes @psuhoffman u r right I forget about the midrange thread. You and I have different ideas of what cautious optimism is pal...lol Joking aside, we all feel it and are equally as anxious, but we also know pattern flips arent light switches....and nor are the opps that happen during said periods. I think it fair to say that we have a decent window coming up, and with all of the vorts flying through the chute, its not unreasonable to see a surprise "score". Lets just keep the chances coming and hope for hits...big and small. Still lightyears better than last years dumpster fire IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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