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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, BristowWx said:
I’ve noticed.  Now what do we do? 

Move?

I think so.  If this is the new normal then we can live anywhere as my wife points out.  She said it can not snow here or not snow in our lake house.  She’s right but what I heard was...we can not have sex pretty much anywhere at least we’ll have a water view. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

BAMWX corrupted me not to ever believe a  forecasted - EPO ,  my bad. 

And wow , this is nuts ! 

 

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It’s ok to point it out. The pac jet has interfered with numerous attempts at poleward heat flux. Even without the epo that block would put is in the game but it would be a much easier road with a more poleward ridge. 

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Just now, Ji said:

So we go from cutter to sliders back to cutters

It's not REALLY a cutter...it tracks right over us and transfers...miller b hybrid that doesn't jump in time.  And I would wait another couple days before being sure that solution is likely...were still at the range where things could change significantly and given that blocking...it wouldn't shock me if the changes is south.  That said...we continue to not see the cold press the way we really need...and that is something that can't be ignored since its been a common theme for a LONG time.  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's not REALLY a cutter...it tracks right over us and transfers...miller b hybrid that doesn't jump in time.  And I would wait another couple days before being sure that solution is likely...were still at the range where things could change significantly and given that blocking...it wouldn't shock me if the changes is south.  That said...we continue to not see the cold press the way we really need...and that is something that can't be ignored since its been a common theme for a LONG time.  

Para GFS is super close to a great solution for us.. more expansive cold as well as a larger snow shield, just a bit too North. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS op is doing what the 18z op did...not a poleward enough EPO ridge...so it dumps all the trough into the west and pumps an eastern ridge... the block can only so do much about that.  

So not just one random bad run.  That is concerning.  What does euro/EPS have to say?

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So not just one random bad run.  That is concerning.  What does euro/EPS have to say?

And remember...the op Gfs did EVERYTHING wrong days 1-10 then still managed to get a flush hit because of that block. Even if other factors aren’t great that block given enough chances might come through. But yea I’d like the Pac to cooperate more and not make this so god darn difficult. 

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42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well damn...we get Miller B'd.  Norhing outrageous...but hey..light blues.  At least for the next 12 hours.

Control concurs with a decent event. EPS seems to take the snow mean to the north of us, but that's to be expected at this point. With the block we're def in the game, hope that look holds. 

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