BristowWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Let’s analyze the 18z GFS while doing shots of whiskey and punching ourselves in the face because that would be the only way to get through it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: 18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run. Let’s just root for the most epic block fail scenario ever in recorded history. It might be more fun 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Not sure I’ve seen many storms move the way the GFS depicts from 324-336. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Ha and the block still forces a low under us even after it starts in the upper Midwest...but without the epo we don’t get the expansive cold press so again it’s a narrow as bleep snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run. GEFS looks OK. At least through 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: GEFS looks OK. At least through 198. Good because that op run was brutal. Maybe academy award winning worst ever January with a block run in a supporting role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run. “Hopefully it’s just a bad op run” - winter 2019-2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I mean, strong -AO/-NAO/-EPO starting at day 7, and plus it's currently only Jan 12th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good because that op run was brutal. Maybe academy award winning worst ever January with a block run in a supporting role. To be clear, I don’t mean good in terms of snow. Just good in terms of keeping the general pattern it has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: To be clear, I don’t mean good in terms of snow. Just good in terms of keeping the general pattern it has been showing. Yes. I knew that. But if we lose the pattern too then plant your grass seed and start getting in shape for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z Gfs op lost the epo ridge totally. Instead it’s a flat central pac ridge and we see the results. The blocking is crazy but it can’t offset that pac. Hopefully it’s just a bad op run. Why is this a surprise ? It has happened literally every time. And last winter too. Pac is King . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 18z GEFS. Sorry stormvista maps not as pretty as others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Must say the GEFS looks sweet with blocking and cold. Maybe better than 12z at 252hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS Sad Hour through Day 11... 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Thanks for that Will. I was getting too enthused. If I buy the bullet can you load the gun for me. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thanks for that Will. I was getting too enthused. If I buy the bullet can you load the gun for me. Thanks in advance. None of us will do it, but to keep your sanity, one should just not look at the models for five days and then check back in....the head fakes from run to run are crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 41 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS looks OK. At least through 198. 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good because that op run was brutal. Maybe academy award winning worst ever January with a block run in a supporting role. 32 minutes ago, snowfan said: “Hopefully it’s just a bad op run” - winter 2019-2021. The 18zgefs does not agree wrt EPO. Even stronger poleward ridge then 12z. Was probably just an op at range on a tangent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 18zgefs does not agree wrt EPO. Even stronger poleward ridge then 12z. Was probably just an op at range on a tangent. So you're saying we have a chance? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 18zgefs does not agree wrt EPO. Even stronger poleward ridge then 12z. Was probably just an op at range on a tangent. have you noticed that no matter what combination the pattern is--the models wont give us any blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: have you noticed that no matter what combination the pattern is--the models wont give us any blue? I’ve noticed. Now what do we do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So you're saying we have a chance? If we’re lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: have you noticed that no matter what combination the pattern is--the models wont give us any blue? Have you noticed you’ve said this about 300 times 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: This is the Eps 72 hour mean day 12-15. Honestly you won’t see a stronger signal at that range. Both GEFS and EPS are sniffing something there. It’s been on the GFS op also If day 5 maps can’t get it right, day 15 is def the way to go 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 18zgefs does not agree wrt EPO. Even stronger poleward ridge then 12z. Was probably just an op at range on a tangent. BAMWX corrupted me not to ever believe a forecasted - EPO , my bad. And wow , this is nuts ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 BLOCK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, frd said: BAMWX corrupted me not to ever believe a forecasted - EPO , my bad. And wow , this is nuts ! 2m temps are AN for us on that time stamp. Sad but true. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: No way ? There must be a couple outlier members cutting or something. That h5 looks cold enough to me . Temps are probably right about normal there, but colder thereafter. Nothing extreme, but better than it is now. If in fact it verifies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: I mean, strong -AO/-NAO/-EPO starting at day 7, and plus it's currently only Jan 12th What professional forecasting outfit responds to a guy with 66 followers like this? No Pro met can get a fair shake in here or on social but this is just some JV shit if you ask me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, poolz1 said: What professional forecasting outfit responds to a guy with 66 followers like this? No Pro met can get a fair shake in here or on social but this is just some JV shit if you ask me. BAMWX is overrated, as is Twitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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