Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Every expert told me it would be a non stop blizzard in the second half of the month oh no! We're still building up to the '96 pattern. Takes time to evolve - February. From my lips to God's ears. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Me neither sooooooo could you please post it? obviously the blocking shows better at earlier times but that’s crazy for day 15 and all the smoothing at that range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: looks like another storm that will miss us south. COngrats NC Too much blocking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: obviously the blocking shows better at earlier times but that’s crazy for day 15 and all the smoothing at that range. who cares about what happens in Greenland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh the storm it didn’t even have last run misses us this run. Oh no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Oh the storm it didn’t even have last run misses us this run. Oh no it had it at 00z...12z just sped it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Gefs was a great run. Very cold. Blocking keeps holding stronger and longer..likely runs into Feb now. For those that want to pull hints from clown maps...the day 6-16 snow mean has a max over VA. The snow belt regions will always have a max from upslope and lake effect but otherwise the max snow axis runs just to our south. That’s a good signal. Ji will be along to take a dump on it in 3...2...1... 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs was a great run. Very cold. Blocking keeps holding stronger and longer..likely runs into Feb now. For those that want to pull hints from clown maps...the day 6-16 snow mean has a max over VA. The snow belt regions will always have a max from upslope and lake effect but otherwise the max snow axis runs just to our south. That’s a good signal. Ji will be along to take a dump on it in 3...2...1... GEFS always shows snow when the OP Does not. Then when the OP shows snow, the ensembles do not. whooo---4.5 inches during peak climo with a severe -AO,-NAO, -EPO 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just can’t help thinking that we have to get a little western Atlantic or se ridging to get these storms to come north a bit. I’d totally prefer cutters into cad over this. I’m done with the “we want it south of us at this range” thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just can’t help thinking that we have to get a little western Atlantic or se ridging to get these storms to come north a bit. I’d totally prefer cutters into cad over this. I’m done with the “we want it south of us at this range” thinking. I wouldn’t mind getting the -pna a bit further south out west. A more SE to NE gradient would help. So long as the blocking is ape like that we will need to get lucky we timing up a wave and phasing it to buckle the flow or getting a temporary weakness in the flow...But the blocking will relax eventually and as that happens with a very cold airmass likely rooted in the US...that’s when things could get more interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs was a great run. Very cold. Blocking keeps holding stronger and longer..likely runs into Feb now. For those that want to pull hints from clown maps...the day 6-16 snow mean has a max over VA. The snow belt regions will always have a max from upslope and lake effect but otherwise the max snow axis runs just to our south. That’s a good signal. Ji will be along to take a dump on it in 3...2...1... considering the default is 3 no matter what the winter is---its really 1 -2 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just can’t help thinking that we have to get a little western Atlantic or se ridging to get these storms to come north a bit. I’d totally prefer cutters into cad over this. I’m done with the “we want it south of us at this range” thinking. Very selfish of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: considering the default is 3 no matter what the winter is---its really 1 -2 inches Huh? The default isn't 3 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d totally prefer cutters into cad over this. I’m done with the “we want it south of us at this range” thinking. A quick 2-4 and then rain is better than 25° and cloudy, IMO. SE dodging might be needed to not get less snow than Raleigh this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t mind getting the -pna a bit further south out west. A more SE to NE gradient would help. So long as the blocking is ape like that we will need to get lucky we timing up a wave and phasing it to buckle the flow or getting a temporary weakness in the flow...But the blocking will relax eventually and as that happens with a very cold airmass likely rooted in the US...that’s when things could get more interesting. I agree. You can see the over running potential as well as that of an amped system cutting and hitting a wall and throwing us some precip into what is like to be some stout cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Huh? The default isn't 3 inches lol yes it is---at this time of the year...over 384...the default is usually about 3 inches....it even showed that last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: considering the default is 3 no matter what the winter is---its really 1 -2 inches We’ve had a lot of runs less then 3. Since they upgraded the GEFS it’s snow maps have been less stupid skewed high by outliers. But also that’s a 10 day mean not 16. So you’re exaggerating and comparing a 10 day to a typical 16 day map. BTW the euro wasn’t that far from a better solution. we need 1 and 2 to phase. Instead they don’t and flatten each other out. We need 3 to be a couple hundred miles east...or not there at all..timing up a wave rotating down a trapped 50/50 at day 8 is hard. It’s not out of the question. I don’t care about details past about 150 because they change run to run a lot. 150 in I want to see it closer because the adjustments seem to be more incremental once inside about that range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Huh? The default isn't 3 inches lol If his default is 3” I can understand his frustration. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: We’ve had a lot of runs less then 3. Since they upgraded the GEFS it’s snow maps have been less stupid skewed high by outliers. But also that’s a 10 day mean not 16. So you’re exaggerating and comparing a 10 day to a typical 16 day map. BTW the euro wasn’t that far from a better solution. we need 1 and 2 to phase. Instead they don’t and flatten each other out. We need 3 to be a couple hundred miles east...or not there at all..timing up a wave rotating down a trapped 50/50 at day 8 is hard. It’s not out of the question. I don’t care about details past about 150 because they change run to run a lot. 150 in I want to see it closer because the adjustments seem to be more incremental once inside about that range. Love that look at at that range number 3 is likely modeled too far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just can’t help thinking that we have to get a little western Atlantic or se ridging to get these storms to come north a bit. I’d totally prefer cutters into cad over this. I’m done with the “we want it south of us at this range” thinking.Seems like the EPS Control followed this line of thinking.. although it cuts the primary into Indiana lol. FWIW still a healthy signal during that time on the main ensemble. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 Would the 12z UKIE be a miss for us? This is hr 144 at h5... there is a 1004mb SLP in the GOM just SW of TLH at 144 on the surface maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 EPS has a big signal for that range around Jan 25-26. So does the gefs. West to east type wave as blocking relaxes some. Way too far out but it’s there. Remarkably similar on both ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Would the 12z UKIE be a miss at 144 with that h5 look? That looks close. To me it looks positive tilt going neutral. If I had to guess I would say if a storm is there it would be a close miss to the south. Would love to see a next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is an excellent look. Mean H pressure to our NW with low pressure running the gulf states and up the coast... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Fwiw eps thinks rain is the bigger threat day 8-9 not suppressed. Some hits though. Some south misses. It’s not a bad look. But the signal day 10-15 is really strong for that range. If this look holds I do expect to see something worthy to show as that period comes unto range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This is an excellent look. Mean H pressure to our NE with low pressure running the gulf states and up the coast... The date on that particular map you show would be the 10th anniversary of the famed PSUHoffman storm, by the way! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Too much blocking lol That block is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2021 Author Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: That looks close. To me it looks positive tilt going neutral. If I had to guess I would say if a storm is there it would be a close miss to the south. Would love to see a next frame. Same here... but the UKMET only goes out to 144 lol. That's why I was asking if we were to extrapolate out another 12 to 24 hours if this would be good for us or a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 This is the Eps 72 hour mean day 12-15. Honestly you won’t see a stronger signal at that range. Both GEFS and EPS are sniffing something there. It’s been on the GFS op also 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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