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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah but isn’t that flow now getting squeezed by all of the blocking and basically creating a firehose right over the mid Atlantic?

So would you rather it be directed to our north and blast pac puke across again?  You’re right except that pac jet is a problem no matter what configuration everything else is in. The coming epo ridge should help some. 

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So would you rather it be directed to our north and blast pac puke across again?  You’re right except that pac jet is a problem no matter what configuration everything else is in. The coming epo ridge should help some. 

I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. Even if the pacific ridge builds, once the flow comes east it’s getting squeezed and shooting straight off the east coast. I don’t think any storm can withstand that. Personally I think the block needs to relax some or be a little more west in order to allow storms to at least be a able to move north a bit. 

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. Even if the pacific ridge builds, once the flow comes east it’s getting squeezed and shooting straight off the east coast. I don’t think any storm can withstand that. Personally I think the block needs to relax some or be a little more west in order to allow storms to at least be a able to move north a bit. 

Yes...that’s why we want a retrograding block into the western NAO domain which is what we look to get.  Early on when it’s still east based it’s not as helpful.  

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49 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Death by "too much" blocking. One would expect this to happen eventually because the flow becomes too meridional on the North America side locking the cold air into Siberia/Europe.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

I thought I jokingly said something similar earlier in the year... i apologize for my words and will think about what I’ve done.

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2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I thought I jokingly said something similar earlier in the year... i apologize for my words and will think about what I’ve done.

We will need weenie tribunals en masse. WxWatcher007 will be the head administration of the Truth and Reconciliation department.

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1 hour ago, anotherman said:

Well respected Lancaster, PA met....

 

 

Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. 

Its not science nor good forecasting  to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive

 

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. 

Its not science nor good forecasting  to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive

 

I don’t remember him saying anything. Or are you using what someone else said against him?

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. 

Its not science nor good forecasting  to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive

 

Ok, so then why are you on here and in this thread?  Should we just look and see if the cows are sitting down or ask Grandma if her leg hurts?

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But that’s a permanent issue with the pac jet blasting in. It’s irregardless if the NAO. I’d still rather have a good longwave pattern over N Amer then not when trying to overcome that issue. Going forwards as the pac ridge shifts poleward it should help mitigate that some. 

Exactly. I also think a building epo ridge will help us cutoff that pac flow. And if our block can retrograde a bit more west then we can definitely score then. I saw hints on the eps of the blocking progression. End of January could ACTUALLY be a go or able period, imo. Like, no no more pushing out in time. 

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34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That has cutter/jumper written all over it imo.

 

Rain at 330 hours GFS  and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

 

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19 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Ok, so then why are you on here and in this thread?  Should we just look and see if the cows are sitting down or ask Grandma if her leg hurts?

Of course not....we should use the pressure difference between DC and Pittsburg to extrapolate the pattern for the next 3 weeks!!!

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Rain at 330 hours GFS  and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

 

That second storm you showed isn’t far from being a decent storm here. The para at about the same time shows what that setup can deliver.

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If course not....we should use the pressure difference between DC and Pittsburg to extrapolate the pattern for the next 3 weeks!!!

He just seems bitter but I’m not sure about what. I gave him the chance to forecast the next two weeks a few days ago but he declined.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Rain at 330 hours GFS  and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

 

The last 2 runs that system was a hit and a miss to the south.  Now it is a very close miss north. At that range it’s going to bounce around because very minor details that can’t possibly be pinned down at 300 hours will determine if the storm snows on PA or MD or VA or NC. And some don’t want to hear this but the pattern from the general hemispheric longwave pattern we can see hints of at that range is the same for all those solutions. We’re not geographically far enough apart to see the discreet differences between a PA and a VA snowstorm at that range.  A good pattern gets us in the game that’s all.  The real key is if this pattern lingers for 2-3 weeks we should get a hit out of the 4-5 waves that would come during that time. 

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