psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 I’ve never seen a closed contour Rex block on the day 15 EPS before. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yeah but isn’t that flow now getting squeezed by all of the blocking and basically creating a firehose right over the mid Atlantic? So would you rather it be directed to our north and blast pac puke across again? You’re right except that pac jet is a problem no matter what configuration everything else is in. The coming epo ridge should help some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So would you rather it be directed to our north and blast pac puke across again? You’re right except that pac jet is a problem no matter what configuration everything else is in. The coming epo ridge should help some. I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. Even if the pacific ridge builds, once the flow comes east it’s getting squeezed and shooting straight off the east coast. I don’t think any storm can withstand that. Personally I think the block needs to relax some or be a little more west in order to allow storms to at least be a able to move north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t think you understand what I’m saying. Even if the pacific ridge builds, once the flow comes east it’s getting squeezed and shooting straight off the east coast. I don’t think any storm can withstand that. Personally I think the block needs to relax some or be a little more west in order to allow storms to at least be a able to move north a bit. Yes...that’s why we want a retrograding block into the western NAO domain which is what we look to get. Early on when it’s still east based it’s not as helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Death by "too much" blocking. One would expect this to happen eventually because the flow becomes too meridional on the North America side locking the cold air into Siberia/Europe. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Death by "too much" blocking. One would expect this to happen eventually because the flow becomes too meridional on the North America side locking the cold air into Siberia/Europe. You are too much 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Well respected Lancaster, PA met.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 icon is a big dissapointment after some promise last night. Cant ever get 2 good runs in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 49 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Death by "too much" blocking. One would expect this to happen eventually because the flow becomes too meridional on the North America side locking the cold air into Siberia/Europe. I thought I jokingly said something similar earlier in the year... i apologize for my words and will think about what I’ve done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I thought I jokingly said something similar earlier in the year... i apologize for my words and will think about what I’ve done. We will need weenie tribunals en masse. WxWatcher007 will be the head administration of the Truth and Reconciliation department. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 LOL...that's quite the block. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 More BLOCKING Pls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, LP08 said: LOL...that's quite the block. That has cutter/jumper written all over it imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Until someone can prove me wrong, clippers simply don’t exist any more. And I’d love to understand why. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That has cutter/jumper written all over it imo. I’ll take that look all day and on Sunday. Overrunning galore. We might miss out on a couple Miller b’s but at least it will be active with the potential for something to travel under the block. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Well respected Lancaster, PA met.... Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. Its not science nor good forecasting to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. Its not science nor good forecasting to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive I don’t remember him saying anything. Or are you using what someone else said against him? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Honestly it been7-10 days away from a good pattern all winter and for most lousy winters. Its not science nor good forecasting to show such an improvement time after time, week after week, and consider it a success IF a more favorable pattern,or even one shot circumstance, does finally arrive Ok, so then why are you on here and in this thread? Should we just look and see if the cows are sitting down or ask Grandma if her leg hurts? 2 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: Ok, so then why are you on here and in this thread? Should we just look and see if the cows are sitting down or ask Grandma if her leg hurts? I'm partial to the Wooly Bear ensembles, but this works too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: But that’s a permanent issue with the pac jet blasting in. It’s irregardless if the NAO. I’d still rather have a good longwave pattern over N Amer then not when trying to overcome that issue. Going forwards as the pac ridge shifts poleward it should help mitigate that some. Exactly. I also think a building epo ridge will help us cutoff that pac flow. And if our block can retrograde a bit more west then we can definitely score then. I saw hints on the eps of the blocking progression. End of January could ACTUALLY be a go or able period, imo. Like, no no more pushing out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That has cutter/jumper written all over it imo. Rain at 330 hours GFS and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, anotherman said: Ok, so then why are you on here and in this thread? Should we just look and see if the cows are sitting down or ask Grandma if her leg hurts? Of course not....we should use the pressure difference between DC and Pittsburg to extrapolate the pattern for the next 3 weeks!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, frd said: Rain at 330 hours GFS and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. That second storm you showed isn’t far from being a decent storm here. The para at about the same time shows what that setup can deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If course not....we should use the pressure difference between DC and Pittsburg to extrapolate the pattern for the next 3 weeks!!! He just seems bitter but I’m not sure about what. I gave him the chance to forecast the next two weeks a few days ago but he declined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: Rain at 330 hours GFS and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. The last 2 runs that system was a hit and a miss to the south. Now it is a very close miss north. At that range it’s going to bounce around because very minor details that can’t possibly be pinned down at 300 hours will determine if the storm snows on PA or MD or VA or NC. And some don’t want to hear this but the pattern from the general hemispheric longwave pattern we can see hints of at that range is the same for all those solutions. We’re not geographically far enough apart to see the discreet differences between a PA and a VA snowstorm at that range. A good pattern gets us in the game that’s all. The real key is if this pattern lingers for 2-3 weeks we should get a hit out of the 4-5 waves that would come during that time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve never seen a closed contour Rex block on the day 15 EPS before. Me neither sooooooo could you please post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 looks like another storm that will miss us south. COngrats NC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 this is getting extremely frustrating---the models refuse to give us blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Every expert told me it would be a non stop blizzard in the second half of the month oh no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: this is getting extremely frustrating---the models refuse to give us blue I feel like I've heard this before from someone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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