howrdcounty snow Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nevermind, spoke too soon thanks saved me from looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 6Z GEFS thru Day 8....not great but best look in weeks at this range. Will be interesting to see if we finally trend the right direction inside 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 53 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ensembles continue to increase depth of the trough day 6/7 period . A few BIG hits on the 6z Gefs. Need a more neutral trough as it heads east or the northern part of the shortwave will crush it. There are a couple MECSs on the 6z individuals. GEPS likes it too. The other issue is the kicker behind it with the fast flow we’ve been having. That many big hitters on the individuals tells me there’s a small % we see some 12z changes with this event. (Crosses fingers) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nevermind, spoke too soon Lol. It’s still a good setup as the -PNA energy bleeds east under the block. Just need to pray the block stays as strong as pronged. I like the week of the 25th. Although I’m not discounting some snow before that if things shake out right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Not bad We need the ridge over Alaska to trend east a bit, then we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yes I said a week ago. The potential fail potential with the upcoming “good” pattern was fast flow shredding sws. Psu remembers. I’m like halfway decent at this hobby now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nevermind, spoke too soon you should know better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: you should know better Do you mean wrt posting a 300+ hr op surface map or the relentlessness of the shred factory? I assumed we could lock in that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 For folks who like snowfall maps, 6z GEFS is most bullish of the season (outside the lead up to the December event). 6” line is just east of Dulles. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We need the ridge over Alaska to trend east a bit, then we're in business. You aren't going to get much better than that in a Nina. GEFS has trended better in the EPO domain in recent runs. AO and NAO are more negative as well in the LR. HL teleconnections are pretty weenie going forward. Should be progressively colder over the next 10+ days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The -NAO will relax in time for our Feb 5th 2021 BECS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The -NAO will relax in time for our Feb 5th 2021 BECS. Can you post the EPO and the WPO from the over night Euro if possible. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Just now, frd said: Can you post the EPO and the WPO from the over night Euro if possible. Thanks I should have linked the twitter post to this image. I don't have those tellies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, frd said: Can you post the EPO and the WPO from the over night Euro if possible. Thanks He should post the AO/NAO/EPO/WPO off the latest GEFS. Would get a lot of likes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 The - NAO will get a big assist going forward as Eric describes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We need the ridge over Alaska to trend east a bit, then we're in business. The ridge goes east all the way to Greenland. You want it to extend to the moon maybe? Or did you mean south? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 48 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The -NAO will relax in time for our Feb 5th 2021 BECS. If we waste that, it’s obvious we have offended and we need to sacrifice this whole sub in the panic room to appease the gods 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Kidding not kidding...I’m not saying we should get a HECS...but if we get through the next 3 weeks with no snow somethings really wrong 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Kidding not kidding...I’m not saying we should get a HECS...but if we get through the next 3 weeks with no snow somethings really wrong Clarify please the next 3 weeks starting from today or from the 20th or when? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 CPC AO forecast has trended to the Euro with 2/3 of the members going down after the initial decline that is taking place now. Also the GFS NH NAM index forecast has updated, the latest is the bottom image. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we waste that, it’s obvious we have offended and we need to sacrifice this whole sub in the panic room to appease the gods Not the whole sub, just a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: CPC AO forecast has trended to the Euro with 2/3 of the members going down after the initial decline that is taking place now. Also the GFS NH NAM index forecast has updated, the latest is the bottom image. Anyone got a link to explain how the heck to read these charts? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Anyone got a link to explain how the heck to read these charts? The blue means negative anomalies, which correlate to high latitude blocking and a weakened vortex. What you are seeing is the blue anomalies extend all the way down to the lower troposphere. So basically there's blue over us @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Clarify please the next 3 weeks starting from today or from the 20th or when? I wasn’t trying to be that specific...the point was if this whole period of blocking which is still escalating and looks to feature a -epo -NAO ridge bridge coming up...produces nothing! That pattern really begins to set in around the 18th and extends out past where we can see but it won’t last forever. But it looks very likely it extends into early Feb at the least. We’re talking about a great pattern hitting during our best snow climo period. So if we make it to like Feb 7 and it’s breaking down and we have nothing to show for it...let me be clear I doubt that. We could even get multiple warning level hits in that look with some luck. Or maybe we don’t get lucky but even in that case we should get some snow somewhere from a pattern like that this time of year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The blue means negative anomalies, which correlate to high latitude blocking and a weakened vortex. What you are seeing is the blue anomalies extend all the way down to the lower troposphere. So basically there's blue over us @Ji Thanks, got that. What geography does this chart cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: I said a week ago. The potential fail potential with the upcoming “good” pattern was fast flow shredding sws. Psu remembers. I’m like halfway decent at this hobby now But that’s a permanent issue with the pac jet blasting in. It’s irregardless if the NAO. I’d still rather have a good longwave pattern over N Amer then not when trying to overcome that issue. Going forwards as the pac ridge shifts poleward it should help mitigate that some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 If you click on the animation and then go full screen you can see some pretty significant differences later in the forecast cycle. As Ventrice points out the GEFS is much different than the EPS north of Alaska. Focus on the evolution after hour 222. I am sure there are implications for us depending on what outcome wins out. I am guessing we would want the GEFS outcome, leading to colder air masses. T However in both loops you can see the development of the very impressive Baffin Bay block . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But that’s a permanent issue with the pac jet blasting in. It’s irregardless if the NAO. I’d still rather have a good longwave pattern over N Amer then not when trying to overcome that issue. Going forwards as the pac ridge shifts poleward it should help mitigate that some. Yeah but isn’t that flow now getting squeezed by all of the blocking and basically creating a firehose right over the mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 First time I have seen this expanse of cold over the NH this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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