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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If it is more elongated and doesn't penetrate as far South, we could get screwed. But who knows.

Eta: what I'm saying is, if the block pulls out prematurely then all bets are off

I just hope we don’t end up with egg on our face and some limp shot of cold

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If it is more elongated and doesn't penetrate as far South, we could get screwed. But who knows.

Eta: what I'm saying is, if the block pulls out prematurely then all bets are off

Now it's crystal clear and I thank you and Bristow for your illustrative explanation. I'm a bit thick-headed from time to time...

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49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We should be celebrating.  It’s the holy grail of blocks. Hardly ever seen by human eyes.  Yet somehow it’s like reaching a million in your 401K...you think it’s cool but you are more scared than excited. 

I've got a feeling that look will produce a snowstorm for us.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

March ‘18 produced the equinox storm for us.

 

The discussion about how that storm would've panned out if it had happened a month prior is quite interesting. I remember the DC area wasted most of the WAA precip as rain, then a fair bit more precip during the day of the 21st when rates lightened up near noon. A redux during the prime of winter would certainly make many here happy. 

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1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

For those who wanted a truly cold airmass, here you go.. quite the signal for cold across North America this far out

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_anom_1day-1770400.thumb.png.4cd8ea63419dd30ffb59c614b6515f8a.png

 

That profile is very 2014. Makes sense. The pac ridge was further east in 2014 with some ridging in the AO domain but not much NAO. This year if that projected pattern comes to pass the EPO is further west but with more NAO blocking.  Those differences offset each other and you end up with a similar pattern. 

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8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I've got a feeling that look will produce a snowstorm for us.

Not sure.  We have failed in many patterns.  This time Mother Nature is really calling our bluff.  Just try and fail with this look.  She underestimates how strong the force of fail is with us.  

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

March ‘18 produced the equinox storm for us.

 

March 1960 was another example of a post SSW cold enso poleward Pac ridge blocking pattern where a western trough elongated east and that lead to one of the snowiest months in mid Atlantic history. In March no less. If the block is firm enough to suppress the SE ridge it’s a very good pattern. 

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21 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The discussion about how that storm would've panned out if it had happened a month prior is quite interesting. I remember the DC area wasted most of the WAA precip as rain, then a fair bit more precip during the day of the 21st when rates lightened up near noon. A redux during the prime of winter would certainly make many here happy. 

I was just cold enough to stay all snow and got 14” so likely something like that lol. I had some pretty low ratios that first day and the mix got really close so a month earlier I probably would have got 18-20” from that just from better ratios. 
ETA: just checked I had 1.6 qpf. That’s horrible ratios for here...that definitely would have been a 20” storm here had it been a little colder. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I think I remember 13.6" here . Just imagine March 19th -21st 1958 when a observer recorded 4.00" + qpf in Carroll county . I believe there was a very weak HP of like 1024 . Can you fathom if it was colder with that insane in the membrane liquid :lmao:

Yea except it’s a lot easier to get that crazy qpf in March with the added temp gradients fueling. Of course with warming that’s why we see more crazy qpf storms mid winter lately so maybe we eventually see something like that. If it can happen i along the PA NY border...they get a TON of snow but we are actually in a better spot for big totals from a coastal storm. 

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