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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The stj is constipated and every wave that actually comes thru the Southern Rockies hits a wall in E TX and stops moving East. 

its an embarrasment to the weather community that a model cannot be programmed to get snow into our area

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

it looked promising for a while :(

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Not if you were looking at h5. It split the trough leaving the southern part behind. A non phased split solution won’t work with the NS we’re dealing with. Need phasing to pump ridging otherwise the NS will keep racing west to east squashing anything. Once it split and the NS raced ahead it was dead. The shred factory would get it. 

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but wasn’t that always our target too?  Although i think we were hopeful maybe starting around the 15th but the last week of January looking more likely now.  But my point is even though we kinda expected it to fail...it’s still a fail right?  

true...you're better with words than I am, I"m just glad I have been busy to not really be that disappointed yet about winter. If it all fails into February then I'll probably post a frowny face then go back to living my life again. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

The Atlantic sure isn’t the problem...ten day caveats and all.

154F0A03-9B68-45BA-866E-C3FEA6A0D093.png

i mean you cant have this map and fail...you have a strong -EPO although PSU  would probably like it more east....Very strong -NAO. SE ridge is supressed. this has to deliver something

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i mean you cant have this map and fail...you have a strong -EPO although PSU  would probably like it more east....Very strong -NAO. SE ridge is supressed. this has to deliver something

No that look is great. If that’s what Jan 21 actually looks like I suspect end of Jan early Feb produces. But lots of “if” there. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

if people cant handle the ups and downs of this hobby....they really need to get out of the hobby and just enjoy weather like normal people. Get a grip people

This isn’t a hobby for most here. It’s having a place to look for the possibility of the weather they want. Most couldn’t care less why the weather is what it is. They only care about what it is. I would put myself in that group. I do find the science of it interesting but predicting it to me holds no fascination. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing is a problem there just need to wait.  This first tanking of the NAO failed due to lack of cold. The next tanking comes around the 20.  If cold gets involved after that should hold potential. 

Don’t take this wrong because I really like your posting but sometimes we don’t really see the whole picture. We haven’t had an organized precip event this year and we are 11 days into January. Unless I missed something.  We need precip before temps are a factor. When it’s partly cloudy what difference do temps make?

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

12z eps goes ape with the Atlantic blocking. One of the strongest signals I’ve seen this far out on a mean. Of course we have no +PNA, but maybe an overrunning type pattern? This is 276

246C8E9F-6BC4-47EF-BC9D-0ED17F77A09E.png

that should deliver. Thats a real NAO block---not just red over greenland woah

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

that should deliver. Thats a real NAO block---not just red over greenland woah

With this setup we’d have a really active STJ. If that blocking is legit then there should be event after event. If the blocking isn’t real then we risk a complete failure. Was this what 94-95 had going? With that look HP should park right over the Great Lakes. Patience is running thin but hopefully today’s look stays!

 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t take this wrong because I really like your posting but sometimes we don’t really see the whole picture. We haven’t had an organized precip event this year and we are 11 days into January. Unless I missed something.  We need precip before temps are a factor. When it’s partly cloudy what difference do temps make?

Temps or precip...doesn't matter if we have one and not the other.

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