January Long Range Disco Thread

[Scraff]

[Ralph Wiggum]

GGEM is just dangling carrots now laughing at us. Seriously, what else do we need to have happen here? PNA axis in ideal spot, -NAO, -AO, weak 50/50, big energy moving across, slight SER to keep it from sliding.  And the surface ends up with a sheared out nothing burger.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It looks like the only thing blocked is energy in the stj. Yet there is no mechanism to block it. Its like any energy in the south never moves East it just drags its feet completely blocked up like a bad case of constipation. Yet the epic NAO block has energy just flying all around it, under it, over it, and everywhere else. Never seen anything like it.

[nj2va]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

It looks like the only thing blocked is energy in the stj. Yet there is no mechanism to block it. Its like any energy in the south never moves East it just drags its feet completely blocked up like a bad case of constipation. Yet the epic NAO block has energy just flying all around it, under it, over it, and everywhere else. Never seen anything like it.

We’ll soon be adding a new chapter to the mid-Atlantic climo book.  “How to go snowless in a -AO/-NAO pattern”

[Ji]

All NS like euro. Icon went that way too. 

As I said....when the euro its by itself and it involves no snow.....its always right.

Now watch it bring it back tonight

[RedSky]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

As I said....when the euro its by itself and it involves no snow.....its always right.

Now watch it bring it back tonight

and being all alone that means it also will then be wrong and there will be no snow, I got this

 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It looks like the only thing blocked is energy in the stj. Yet there is no mechanism to block it. Its like any energy in the south never moves East it just drags its feet completely blocked up like a bad case of constipation. Yet the epic NAO block has energy just flying all around it, under it, over it, and everywhere else. Never seen anything like it.

Loop day 10-16. A NS SW that tracks through the lakes gets to Maine then loops north and west to Hudson Bay then dives back to the lakes. That’s pretty blocked. The flow is very blocked.  But a block can’t make all those SWs in the NS disappear. That’s a result of the hopped up pac jet.   But it’s all NS and the NS is flying too many SWs around for anything to dig and amplify.  This is one reason our better hecs look with blocking is the split flow with a trough off the west coast. That way systems come in across the south and the NS is out of the way up in Canada. But that wasn’t working this year because there was no cold in the pattern at all. Losing the split flow will get the NS into the US and inject cold but we just saw what the danger with that could be. 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Loop day 10-16. A NS SW that tracks through the lakes gets to Maine then loops north and west to Hudson Bay then dives back to the lakes. That’s pretty blocked. The flow is very blocked.  But a block can’t make all those SWs in the NS disappear. That’s a result of the hopped up pac jet.   But it’s all NS and the NS is flying too many SWs around for anything to dig and amplify.  This is one reason our better hecs look with blocking is the split flow with a trough off the west coast. That way systems come in across the south and the NS is out of the way up in Canada. But that wasn’t working this year because there was no cold in the pattern at all. Losing the split flow will get the NS into the US and inject cold but we just saw what the danger with that could be. 

Ninas usually manage to screw us one way or another. We do much better with the southward displaced jet of a Nino, but even that seems to be shifting lately.

[CAPE]

Looking at the 0z GEFS, signals are still there for possible events for our region between the 17th and the 24th, but somewhat weaker than the previous "good" runs. The snowfall mean looks decent, but there are about 12 of the 30 members that have next to nothing for the DC area through the entire run. There are also fewer southern events compared to 0z and 6z runs of yesterday. 

EPS says we might wanna close the blinds.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

7 hours ago, nj2va said:

We’ll soon be adding a new chapter to the mid-Atlantic climo book.  “How to go snowless in a -AO/-NAO pattern”

Everyone always weenies out over the AO/NAO but IMHO the last ten years have shown it to be not as important anymore.

[Ralph Wiggum]

LR GEFS/GEPS aren't horrible. SER is losing steam and the NAO/AO rebuild toward the end. Central PAC ridge blob is roaring though but it extends up into a blended WPO/EPO thumb ridge. Still looks like a ripping NS embedded with sw after sw but I wouldn't call it a shutout look either. Sorry in advance for the crap graphics:

[Ralph Wiggum]

I was hopeful we would enter a clipper pattern after the 20th and we still could. With the NS ripping, getting something to amplify and phase with the stj is going to be a challenge. Less of a challenge would be to get the HL ridging to nudge the NS disturbance track towards our latitude which would provide disturbances to push thru originating downstream of the EPO aka Alberta Clipper/Manitoba Mauler/Saskatchewan Screamer. I lump all 3 together as 'clippers' or simply northern stream disturbances. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

LR GEFS/GEPS aren't horrible. SER is losing steam and the NAO/AO rebuild toward the end. Central PAC ridge blob is roaring though but it extends up into a blended WPO/EPO thumb ridge. Still looks like a ripping NS embedded with sw after sw but I wouldn't call it a shutout look either. 

Its not a shutout look at all. With the advertised Pac ridge location/orientation and -PNA, the -NAO will keep the SE ridge suppressed. Lets hope the blocking sticks around for awhile. As for the NS dominance, that can be a real struggle at our latitude, but- with the west based block and a TPV lobe underneath, we might have a better chance of getting NS shortwaves to track further south than we might typically see. Hopefully one can track underneath and amp up a bit.

[anotherman]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was hopeful we would enter a clipper pattern after the 20th and we still could. With the NS ripping, getting something to amplify is going to be a challenge. Less of a challenge would be to get the HL ridging to nudge the NS disturbance track towards our latitude which would provide disturbances to push thru originating downstream of the EPO aka Alberta Clipper/Manitoba Mauler/Saskatchewan Screamer. I lump all 3 together as 'clippers' or simply northern stream disturbances. 

That would be nice.  Anything but nothing would be nice.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That would be nice.  Anything but nothing would be nice.

Imho that may be the scenario we need to put our chips on for the foreseeable future. We've clearly seen already why during a Nina it is hard to get something to come up out of the stj....shear city thanks to the fast NS. Once anything gets North of say the Hatteras latitude, generally speaking, it get shredded or just bullied ENE. Until that NS slows down or gets more convoluted later in the season, outside of a fluke event, we will be tracking short range NS disturbances more often than not. Now get that fast flow look in the map I posted to set up just under us, and that's the look we want for clippers to deliver. Every once in a while they hit the coast and bomb out too when they run into WAR. So its like a rapid fire lottery...we can get many chances for 1-3"/2-4" events with such a setup. I think most here would take anything at this point. Now watch 12z mock me and roll in chock full of stj systems, Miller A's and bombing stj coastals.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Its not a shutout look at all. With the advertised Pac ridge location/orientation and -PNA, the -NAO will keep the SE ridge suppressed. Lets hope the blocking sticks around for awhile. As for the NS dominance, that can be a real struggle at our latitude, but- with the west based block and a TPV lobe underneath, we might have a better chance of getting NS shortwaves to track further south than we might typically see. Hopefully one can track underneath and amp up a bit.

Every time thus far that the PAC has tried to dig the trof into the SW or off the SW coast, the Nina laughed in its face and said nope, move along and stay N. With the map I posted, the other scenario we could score in is in fact digging the trof in those areas, splitting the flow, and having sw's eject out of the Southwest and provide overunning. I alluded to this last week stating the clipper look and the SWFE (gradient) setups are two possible wintry patterns I could see this heading. Many have stated gradient patterns seem rare anymore and with the Nina, that statement could certainly continue to have merit. But that's my take on how things may evolve over the next 3 weeks.

[Ji]

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

 

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

 

This is what his "predictor" is showing? Is that akin to spinning the roulette wheel?

[Anyweather]

On 1/9/2021 at 2:41 PM, psuhoffman said:

I think the EPS took a baby step towards a better look for the threat window around the 20th

much better ridging into the west and more depth to the eastern trough as well as a better alignment. Only snag is it still washes the wave in front of it out and so the WAR is still there. If that wave can amplify into a 50/50 that’s a really good look. But 2/3 factors moved in the right direction. Meatloaf approves. 

 

[psuhoffman]

Never seen a full Rex block on a day 10+ ensemble mean like the 6z GEFS. That’s crazy.  The Atlantic looks as perfect as we could hope for. Unfortunately the pac goes to hell and the central pac ridge goes ape which will try to force a western trough eastern ridge. The Atlantic does resist and the pac ridge is more poleward which will inject more cold and press the boundary more SE then typical with that pac ridge trough alignment.  That combo has worked in the past but it requires getting enough cold into the pattern to press east under the block.  Lately that last part has been a problem. 

[Chris78]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Never seen a full Rex block on a day 10+ ensemble mean like the 6z GEFS. That’s crazy.  The Atlantic looks as perfect as we could hope for. Unfortunately the pac goes to hell and the central pac ridge goes ape which will try to force a western trough eastern ridge. The Atlantic does resist and the pac ridge is more poleward which will inject more cold and press the boundary more SE then typical with that pac ridge trough alignment.  That combo has worked in the past but it requires getting enough cold into the pattern to press east under the block.  Lately that last part has been a problem. 

Could this lead to overrunning events? 

Snow to mix to dry slot?

Edit : with storm tracks to the west?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

 

It degraded significantly since then. The trough doesn’t have enough depth and it’s all NS now 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Could this lead to overrunning events? 

Snow to mix to dry slot?

Edit : with storm tracks to the west?

Yes or if the block is really flexing crazy transfers from the Midwest to the coast.

[Anyweather]

I found this article on Bloomberg News. Here is an excerpt:

That could mean chills anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, though this year it’s likely to end up in the U.S. according to Ryan Truchelut, president of Weather Tiger LCC. A wave of deep cold could give the Great Lakes and East Coast their first real blast of frigid winter weather, along with a storm pattern that delivers snow storms as well.
 

read the entire article since the last paragraph is, well, a little deflating. 
 

link:https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/as-polar-vortex-stirs-a-deep-freeze-threatens-u-s-and-europe

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It degraded significantly since then. The trough doesn’t have enough depth and it’s all NS now 

Still, that ought to be capable of producing snow. Clippers, weak lows, something.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE the eps actually fully caved to the GEFS pattern progression in the long range. But both have now picked up on something that mutes our opportunity before that.  It makes sense in hindsight. After the poleward pac ridge goes up and the initial dump of true cold goes into the west...a ridge will pop as response in the east. At that time there isn’t enough cold in the east yet for that see saw equation to end well.  It also doesn’t help that the NAO ridge still is just an extension of the WAR at that time and hasn’t retrogrades and cut off enough yet to fully resist the SE ridge.  But with the blocking that cold starts to bleed east and eventually we get a pattern that can work.  The only problem there is that’s a more typical Nina pac and the STJ will be totally cut off. So the fear is if the NS doesn’t gain enough depth it’s a dry NW flow pattern and we watch New England get late developing Miller Bs.   It has worked before though. March 2018 was a poleward pac ridge -NAO pattern. But remember that was frustrating at times with 2 miller b miss big New England storms before we finally got our snowstorm.  January 2011 had a poleward PAC ridge buy it stayed centered just off the west coast and never fully pulled back too far. Feb 2006 kinda worked...we got one big snow but we waited around most of the month with a great block waiting for that one southern wave to come along.  That general pattern has lead to snowstorms but it can be really frustrating if the NS is dominant and nothing amplifies. 

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still, that ought to be capable of producing snow. Clippers, weak lows, something.

Some pity flakes maybe. A real snowstorm...ehh. You should talk to losetoe6 

[WinterWxLuvr]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some pity flakes maybe. A real snowstorm...ehh. You should talk to losetoe6 

Would you rather have “pity flakes” or no flakes.

I think I’ll set my bar a bit lower than the 12”+ snow.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Would you rather have “pity flakes” or no flakes.

I think I’ll set my bar a bit lower than the 12”+ snow.

By bar is somewhere between 12” and some random flakes.  Also I’m way more willing to be interested in a minor snowfall within 48 hours. But investing time tracking a clipper or some snow showers no. 

[Ji]

ive never seen a long range threat die as fast as the Jan 19. We literally have nothing to track