gopper Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why? We can't even score in a good pattern is seems. Heck, if we don't score over the next 2 weeks which takes us to the 24th I say reshuffle the deck and hope we back into something in some oddly convoluted pattern with unfavorable tellies. Mitchnick approves of this! He was always in favor of the "reshuffle" if I remember correctly. It does seem that we get snow more when things are not "just right". Maybe something will pop up in the short range and surprise us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 10 days out, we are in good shape. Lots will change over the next few days - happy to be in the game. I agree. I think by Tuesday, real threats will be on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. this... leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall... if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits. If we can’t score in that look verbatim as the block relaxes, its time to root for 60s and sun through March. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: If we can’t score in that look verbatim as the block relaxes, its time to root for 60s and sun through March. Agreed, but I can see it now, we get shutout until the st paddy’s day blizzard of 2021. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, gopper said: Mitchnick approves of this! He was always in favor of the "reshuffle" if I remember correctly. It does seem that we get snow more when things are not "just right". Maybe something will pop up in the short range and surprise us! This just goes to show how much of a challenge it is to get a MECS. Often times we go thru periods of being somewhat spoiled. Soooo many things need to happen properly even in an epic pattern to produce. Timing, temperature, ridge/trof amplitude, spacing, etc. Maybe 1 out of every 4 times these great tellies setup do we actually score. That ratio is a rough guess but I believe some folks think every time things align will yield a MECS. Wish it worked like that but sadly it doesn't. "Should" the coming pattern or relaxing of said pattern produce? Probably. Will it? Tbd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that area of extreme neg anomalies over Europe/Scandinavia a function of the SWE do you think? That is quite a neg anomaly right there. Yes the main pv displacement went to their side. We still benefit from a weakened PV in general and as the pac pattern retrogrades and we get some cold into our side maybe that finally pays off. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: we get some cold into our side maybe that finally pays off Assuming of course that this happens. What is your current take on that? Looking at the 18Z GEFS I see a nice cool shot (at 850 MB at least) after the 16th, then the cold really gathers in NW Canada. Although we are by no means torching, its just seasonal to coolish by day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I was actually saying that was a pretty good setup. It’s not perfect. More wave separation and a 50/50 would be ideal. But a displaced TPV lobe diving in and phasing just to our west is a way we have scored before. It can cut inland if the trough amplifies too far west so it’s not this sure thing can’t fail look. Get more spacing and a 50/50 and it becomes that. But I was saying that tpv there makes getting higher heights in the lakes impossible. But so long as the low is behind the southern wave and not in front it’s ok. The way that works is the cold is locked in long enough in front then by the time the lakes low would screw us the coastal takes over and the mid levels close off and the lakes low becomes irrelevant. That only works if the NS isn’t dominant like the gfs and ggem showed. The euro was all NS and that won’t work. To make my point look at the 12z gfs run. The mid levels stay cold enough. We’re rain because it is just too warm at the surface despite a closed circulation and saturation. The lakes low wasn’t really a huge issue it was just too warm at the surface. That’s sad for Jan 19 with a bombing low off the coast! Oh, I get what you’re saying now. But my point was is that if there’s no phasing then those lower heights act as confluence as opposed to amplification. My point was if it made not going to phase into the SS sw then I’d prefer it were out of the way all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Agreed, but I can see it now, we get shutout until the st paddy’s day Flizzard of 2021. Corrected it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: It is pretty crazy how difficult it is to get a random snow shower or a light mix event anymore. That sort of thing used to happen even in pretty crappy patterns. Literally nothing last winter, and nothing so far this winter to this point for a large part of this sub forum. The worm needs to turn lol. Even up here in Central Upstate New York, it's been the same I am at 16 inches for the entire season. No cold air for lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Cold anomalies still sitting in Russia. I'm sure someone smarter than me can tell me the weather reason for this and if it might change. Probably the crappy pac I read about a lot here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 42 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Oh, I get what you’re saying now. But my point was is that if there’s no phasing then those lower heights act as confluence as opposed to amplification. My point was if it made not going to phase into the SS sw then I’d prefer it were out of the way all together. Usually I agree. But then we’re back to the split flow idea and that hadn’t been working wrt cold lol. Double bind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Usually I agree. But then we’re back to the split flow idea and that hadn’t been working wrt cold lol. Double bind. Any particular discrete improvements in the modeling within Day 10 that you would love to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Any particular discrete improvements in the modeling within Day 10 that you would love to see? Blue over us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Blue over us I should clarify: realistic discrete improvements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Any particular discrete improvements in the modeling within Day 10 that you would love to see? For the 19th threat...more amplified deeper trough and a 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 GFS looks totally different than before for MLK - and not in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS looks totally different than before for MLK - and not in a good way. Trough is way more positively tilted. Won’t even be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 GeezSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Geez Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Bob Chill used to say we needed 4 or 5 threats to score once. Feels like DC is going on 16 or 17 threats at this point...with nothing to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Bob Chill used to say we needed 4 or 5 threats to score once. Feels like DC is going on 16 or 17 threats at this point...with nothing to show.It's amazing how nothing and I mean nothing ever trends right for us. We take 1 step forward immediately by 4 steps back Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 It's amazing how nothing and I mean nothing ever trends right for us. We take 1 step forward immediately by 4 steps back Sent from my SM-G981V using TapatalkLook at the Tuesday event and how that started in the modeling and how it ended Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS looks totally different than before for MLK - and not in a good way. Typical Nina progressive and fast NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 All NS like euro. Icon went that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Its over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Look at the Tuesday event and how that started in the modeling and how it ended Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Seems like we’d be better off with the pattern in December....at least DC got some frozen with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Typical Nina progressive and fast NS. Yea except our avg snow in a -AO Nina winter is close to median which isn’t a lot but it’s not this crap either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Typical Nina progressive and fast NS. Why can't it progress fast into snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Any other winter we would be looking down the barrel of a loaded gun with this look. Smfh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Ggem went to the euro NS dominant progression too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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