Ji Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 even when we are thrown a blue bone once a while, its the lighest blue possible and its for one frame only 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Incredible. Getting a model to show a few pixels of blue over us is more difficult than pushing out a hard turd when constipated. Right where we...ahh forget it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Tracking sucks right now. 18z gfs with a big whiff. Has zero snow through Jan 26. I guess we’re building up cred for next years massive HECS. This blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Agreed.. and I’m not sure I gathered what you were saying earlier. You were saying that the upcoming h5 setup in the 7-10 day range is more indicative of how we fail then how we usually succeed? Because of the TPV being displaced this far south? I understand that we don’t want the TPV centered in the southern central CA but not sure what your explanation was for a ridge out west and lower heights in the southern tier being a fail setup. Seemed like the heights around the lakes were keeping our trough from turning negative and moving up the coast. What am I missing I was actually saying that was a pretty good setup. It’s not perfect. More wave separation and a 50/50 would be ideal. But a displaced TPV lobe diving in and phasing just to our west is a way we have scored before. It can cut inland if the trough amplifies too far west so it’s not this sure thing can’t fail look. Get more spacing and a 50/50 and it becomes that. But I was saying that tpv there makes getting higher heights in the lakes impossible. But so long as the low is behind the southern wave and not in front it’s ok. The way that works is the cold is locked in long enough in front then by the time the lakes low would screw us the coastal takes over and the mid levels close off and the lakes low becomes irrelevant. That only works if the NS isn’t dominant like the gfs and ggem showed. The euro was all NS and that won’t work. To make my point look at the 12z gfs run. The mid levels stay cold enough. We’re rain because it is just too warm at the surface despite a closed circulation and saturation. The lakes low wasn’t really a huge issue it was just too warm at the surface. That’s sad for Jan 19 with a bombing low off the coast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: Tracking sucks right now. 18z gfs with a big whiff. Has zero snow through Jan 26. I guess we’re building up cred for next years massive HECS. This blows Naw another Nina coming. 2012 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too. Dark days in the land. I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too. Dark days in the land. I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff. I think we are mostly just bored with the waiting, and having a little fun with it. At least I am. I still think we are in decent shape beyond the next week. Subject to change ofc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 33 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Tracking sucks right now. 18z gfs with a big whiff. Has zero snow through Jan 26. I guess we’re building up cred for next years massive HECS. This blows GFS must have the highest verification scores for 360 snowfall forecasts. Bravo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Expectations should be low through the next two weeks...ensembles remain a dud. Forget about AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, EPO, and strat.warm. Say a Hail Mary and hope ET comes home. We need divine intervention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 18Z WB GEFS through Day 10, Dudsville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB GEFS brought Day 10, Dudsville. Perfect. When the odds are high the reality is zero. Let’s try it the other way for a change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perfect. When the odds are high the reality is zero. Let’s try it the other way for a change. Low pressure over detroit at d10 on the GFS? Right where we want it at this range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, IronTy said: Low pressure over detroit at d10 on the GFS? Right where we want it at this range... Patience. February will make us shiver.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Trying to find some good news....here’s the snowfall mean for various periods on the 18z GEFS (for DC). D1-D10: 0.8” D11-D15: 1.2” (total: 2.0”) D16: 1.3” (total 3.3”) A few takeaways: 1) Go find a hobby to keep busy for the next 7-10 days. 2) That’s a pretty big signal on a D16 24 hour snowfall mean. 3) It always feels 10+ days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Patience. February will make us shiver.... But I don't deliver papers? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too. Dark days in the land. I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff. or at least 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 59 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too. Dark days in the land. I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff. Like CAPE I’m mostly just bored with this pattern chasing. Also frustrated we can’t seem to link into just some snow in what shouldn’t be a shutout look. But we look to keep the extremely -AO/NAO for the next 15 days if not longer. I still will be shocked if we get a strongly -AO/NAO for a solid month in mid winter and get shut out. That’s kinda crazy. I’ll bet that somewhere we get lucky. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Trying to find some good news....here’s the snowfall mean for various periods on the 18z GEFS (for DC). D1-D10: 0.8” D11-D15: 1.2” (total: 2.0”) D16: 1.3” (total 3.3”) A few takeaways: 1) Go find a hobby to keep busy for the next 7-10 days. 2) That’s a pretty big signal on a D16 24 hour snowfall mean. 3) It always feels 10+ days away. The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. this... leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall... if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Patience. February will make us shiver.... With every newspaper I’d deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, IronTy said: But I don't deliver papers? You beat me to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, Yeoman said: or at least 10 days 10 days out, we are in good shape. Lots will change over the next few days - happy to be in the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. this... leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall... if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits. But this is practically the end of January! I sure hope the pattern does not break down fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, nj2va said: 1) Go find a hobby to keep busy for the next 7-10 days. We need to set a rotation schedule for someone to check on Ji at least daily. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Man, this is probably about the lowest morale has been around here in a while....and in the midst of a "great" pattern too. Dark days in the land. I think we should all just grit our teeth and wait one more week from now and see where we are before we hit the cliff. Crazy looking back at this past Friday getting that 1.5” event. It was dumping here for a little bit. Beggars definitely can’t be choosers at this juncture. Pretty deflating to see Deep South getting snow in TX and LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Crazy looking back at this past Friday getting that 1.5” event. It was dumping here for a little bit. Beggars definitely can’t be choosers at this juncture. Pretty deflating to see Deep South getting snow in TX and LA At least you got to see snow falling and accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 10 days out, we are in good shape. Lots will change over the next few days - happy to be in the game. Who actually likes snow anyway? It’s the chase that matters :/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs is going bonkers with the Greenland block. this... leads to this look as it starts to relax which leads to that spike in snowfall... if the gefs is right about that the period as the blocking relaxes is commonly when we do score so the progression fits. Is that area of extreme neg anomalies over Europe/Scandinavia a function of the SWE do you think? That is quite a neg anomaly right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, gopper said: But this is practically the end of January! I sure hope the pattern does not break down fast! If it did break down, you think things could actually get worse? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, gopper said: But this is practically the end of January! I sure hope the pattern does not break down fast! Why? We can't even score in a good pattern it seems. Heck, if we don't score over the next 2 weeks which takes us to the 24th I say reshuffle the deck and hope we back into something in some oddly convoluted pattern with unfavorable tellies. Eta: ninja'd by @WinterWxLuvr 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 11, 2021 Share Posted January 11, 2021 If it did break down, you think things could actually get worse?How could it get any worse? 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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