dallen7908 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Wait ... we only need a 100% absolutely dead perfect textbook pattern. I thought we needed a storm during that ephemeral window too. Seriously, many of the the myriad things we need to get a substantial snow are highly correlated with each other so at some point things will improve rapidly. Hard not to think that luck has been lacking lately when we hear about snows in Texas, Oklahoma, Madrid etc. Its kind of amusing to be rooting for flow from Canada and when it comes several alert posters point out both graphically and with numbers that it is of Pacific origin - Those posts and the wonderful analysis by you and others makes this an enjoyable forum. Also, I encourage members to spend a few days each winter in northern New England and to track the weather at your destination several weeks in advance. Very rewarding. Unfortunately, this winter, a few trips to White Grass may have to suffice for me. On to the 12UT suite, hopefully, we can all meet in the 3-7 day forum soon ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Looking good so far...12z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Nice elongated confluence. That ULL in s Canada helps keep the flow south. HP N of the low too so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Major storm Incoming on GFS. Nice CAD signature. Main vort staying neutral in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I don’t like the pesky low north of Michigan. Hopefully a non-factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Changes on H5 at hour 198 from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Temps are torched verbatim. Nice to see a storm but hopefully it doesn’t go down like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 That ULL could be a tough one. It could actually help force things farther south or if the main storm phases and tilts the trough with it. Either way good signal so far today. Onto cmc and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 No sense getting worried about details. Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 A real gully washer here at the coast- but that’s to be expected. Good luck to you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 No blue but plenty of yellow and orange lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Minor adjustments and that’d be a huge event for the area. It rapidly strengthens in a favorable spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Just now, Prestige Worldwide said: A real gully washer here at the coast- but that’s to be expected. Good luck to you guys Looking at h5 192-204 it’s pretty sweet. I wouldn’t just assume gullywasher even at the coast. Especially with solutions that have more pronounced blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 12z para has much better confluence. We might have a signal boys and gals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para coming in alot less progressive then little brother Gfs for the day 5/6 front . Looks alot more blocky. Have to see what implications that has for any follow up system. Para looks better. 50/50 low? Eta the ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 CMC is slightly south, gets light snow in the region, but decent H5 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 This one might have legs. Let’s see what our European friend thinks. Probably finishing a plate of bangers and mash getting ready to take a steamer on us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Good set of 12z. All the major models showing a storm around the day 7 to 9 time . Cmc and Para mainly south but a good signal for this far out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 GFS has a follow up storm that misses to the south. This map is just LOL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS has a follow up storm that misses to the south. This map is just LOL though. Don't laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 50 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Its kind of amusing to be rooting for flow from Canada and when it comes several alert posters point out both graphically and with numbers that it is of Pacific origin - I don’t know if you were pointing this out or not, sometimes I suck at context clues, but this is exactly what I’m talking about. We are downwind of the pac! Almost always our airmass will be pacific in origins. And before it was in the pacific it was probably over Asia! But air masses do change characteristics some. There is a huge difference between a pacific Maritime airmass that originated in the tropical or subtropical pacific blasting straight across the US at mid latitudes and a pacific airmass that originated in the colder north Pacific then traversed Alaska and the Yukon before diving into the US. The former will never work. The latter better darn well work because that’s responsible for 90% of our snow. How common do you think a direct cross polar flow from Siberia is? And guess what more often then not when we get those arctic blasts once in a blue moon it’s a cold dry pattern then warms before any storm comes because typically to get that you need a full latitude wave 1 EPO ridge configuration and that is NOT good for getting a favorable storm track here. If we need a direct flow from Siberia to get snow we (as DT would say) are fooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 41 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Changes on H5 at hour 198 from 6z SHOCKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: SHOCKING Lol. I was like “really. Come on man.” He’s not wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Don't laugh. The MA snow hole on that map including Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 The signal for the 19/20th has only become more pronounced in the last 24 hours. All the parts are there. Severely displaced TPV in southern Canada. Colder antecedent airmass. -NAO. Very nice wave depth and alignment signature. But the details models will not get accurate at this range will determine exactly how it plays out. No sense getting upset over those details that will change every run for another couple days. 150 hours seems to be about the magic spot where the globals start to hone in on some synoptic level details. We’re still 2 days from that. I will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time. 15 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The signal for the 19/20th has only become more pronounced in the last 24 hours. All the parts are there. Severely displaced TPV in southern Canada. Colder antecedent airmass. -NAO. Very nice wave depth and alignment signature. But the details models will not get accurate at this range will determine exactly how it plays out. No sense getting upset over those details that will change every run for another couple days. 150 hours seems to be about the magic spot where the globals start to hone in on some synoptic level details. We’re still 2 days from that. I will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time. The good thing is it’s only 7ish days away. Not super fantasy land. We just need to get rid of these low heights around the lakes and move a stout high to our NE. This h5 is pretty darn close to a thumping though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time I agree. Taking a break from tracking. Nice day out. Taking our Greyhound for a walk. Of course looking forward to the GEFS and the EPS. I rather luck out being g too cold because it seems cold is the issue not precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time. At least I'll have the best reaping I've ever had and my last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 12z GEFS supports the OP for Day 7-9. Mix of good hits and rainers (leaning towards rain). 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: The good thing is it’s only 7ish days away. Not super fantasy land. We just need to get rid of these low heights around the lakes and move a stout high to our NE. This h5 is pretty darn close to a thumping though This is a different longwave setup then the one you’re describing. We haven’t had this look much recently, it’s not that uncommon historically but it’s been virtually extinct lately. But the TPV displaced in south central Canada will promote lower heights in the lakes and ridging to our northeast. And if we didn’t have a huge western ridge and a -NAO with a decently cold antecedent airmass that would be a death sentence which is what we’re used to lately. But with a trough of that depth/longitude/axis we actually need that. Anything that forms down south would end up way OTS otherwise. That’s the kind of look where a storm runs the coast. Us being the furthest west of the megalopolis actually is favorable here. These type setups were more common in the past and can leave eastern NE more susceptible to a flip sometimes if it takes an inside track. The key for us is the trough not going negative too early or trending further west. There was a high to our northeast. Weak but it’s there. The lakes low is behind the dominant southern wave and the coastal develops a closed mid level circulation before that should interfere. But that’s another detail we need. The northern stream needs to feed into the southern wave not the other way. If the NS is the dominant SW this won’t work. Ideally if future runs trend towards a 50/50 low this goes from a very good look with MECS potential to a perfect HECS one but with the TPV in southern Canada that’s a tough ask as that’s going to promote ridging in front. But it also is going to dig the trough just to our west so it compensates for that issue some also. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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