nj2va Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Looping the 12z GEFS precip type maps across the members showing lots of opportunities (hint: blue) across the area beginning around the 18th or so. I think it would bring another smile to @CAPE’s face, per his comment this morning. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Epic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I admit to being a fainter, but I try to keep my spells off of the board. That being said, I am only able to devote a tiny percentage of the time to this hobby that I would like right now so I depend on this board for pretty much all my LR information. I'm actually going to try to make myself a little chart to encapsulate a subjective opinion the status of how good or bad the pattern looks on the two primary ensembles (GEFS, EPS). To keep it apples-to-apples I am only going to ignore the 06Z and 18Z GEFS, and just consider at the 00Z and 12Z runs. So my plan is to fill in this chart with values from 1 - 10, with 1 being last January and 10 being the best pattern you can imagine. I accept any and all suggestions for numbers 00Z GEFS 00Z EPS Day1 - 5 3 3 Day 6 - 10 5 5 Day 11-15 7 1 I would bump the GEFS to a 8 long range and the EPS isn’t good but it’s not a 1. It does still have a -AO and there is at least hope with that. Last year with that pac and a +AO was a 1. I’d give the EPS a 2/3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: But it also has a correlation to dryness. No moisture, no snow. That too...with a flow straight off the pole the STJ gets shut off and even if the cold does come east we can go dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 44 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe just have a LR discussion thread(this one) and then make another one for identifying/discussing potential discrete threats inside 6 days. When we get inside 3 with a legit threat we can make a specific storm thread and jinx it. Yea “long range pattern thread” and “medium range storm thread” thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Honest question, who could you possibly be driving nuts with this? If one is not interested in discussions like that, why would they be here? I'm honestly perplexed. People who only want to hear what could go right and not what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Ok we’ll try the thread split. Gimme a few minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I like the idea of a long range thread and then separate threads for specific threats that pop up within a week. Perhaps a lot of those threads will die a slow or quick death when the threat fails to materialize, but who cares? It will just fade down the board over time. It gets confusing in here sometimes when people post about a certain model run and don't specify the storm or date of the threat they are giving their analysis about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 @frd @CAPE @WxUSAF there is a dichotomy long range. The strat crew keeps hinting Feb could rock. The MJO/AAM/GLAM gang thinks we torch feb. There are conflicting signals. The progression of the tropical forcing and angular momentum favors a warmer canonical Nina Feb. The SSW progression favors Feb as when we see the greatest impacts on the TPV and subsequent blocking and cold intrusion into the mid latitudes. The question is which driver wins that fight or if it’s a stalemate does that end up favorable enough for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ok we’ll try the thread split. Gimme a few minutes I’ll wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 On 1/7/2021 at 8:00 AM, mappy said: I'm okay with that. I know its just another thread to follow, but worst case the short term thread becomes a storm thread when a specific threat looks likely. Ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I’m not going to spend all my time moving posts back and forth so people need to do their best here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just in case anyone wasn’t in on the joke the gefs didn’t cave. Even out to day 16 it was pretty similar if not slightly better then the 0/6z runs. Model death match still on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not going to spend all my time moving posts back and forth so people need to do their best here Yeah the system sucks on moving posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not going to spend all my time moving posts back and forth so people need to do their best here I mean worst case people post in the wrong thread and so it’s the same as now lol. I think people can figure it out. Don’t disappoint me people. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just in case anyone wasn’t in on the joke the gefs didn’t cave. Even out to day 16 it was pretty similar if not slightly better then the 0/6z runs. Model death match still on. I don't have access to any of the pay sites so I just have TT and they didn't have the 12Z yet, so I wasn't in on it. My heart sank. Now its back on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just in case anyone wasn’t in on the joke the gefs didn’t cave. Even out to day 16 it was pretty similar if not slightly better then the 0/6z runs. Model death match still on. GEFS has done well the last few months. Doesn’t mean it’s right here, but in previous years when the GEFS was on its own you knew it was going to cave eventually. EPS has caved to it several times this winter. The 17-20th period definitely has potential. Not much else to say now. 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Yeah the system sucks on moving posts. Especially on a phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would bump the GEFS to a 8 long range and the EPS isn’t good but it’s not a 1. It does still have a -AO and there is at least hope with that. Last year with that pac and a +AO was a 1. I’d give the EPS a 2/3 20210109 12Z updates 12Z GEFS 12Z EPS Day1 - 5 3 3 Day 6 - 10 5 5 Day 11-15 8 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 This is an intriguing look. Would be plenty cold and offer storm chances. Gotta have that EPO ridge though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: This is an intriguing look. Would be plenty cold and offer storm chances. Gotta have that EPO ridge though. Yes. It all comes down to that. The GEPS is fully on the EPS side now. Both lose the EPO ridge and the pac jet gets directed right into the CONUS. It’s all down to that one feature because everything else is identical across guidance (except for features that are a direct effect of that difference). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 ^got to have a -NAO there or it’s SE ridge R US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: ^got to have a -NAO there or it’s SE ridge R US. Definitely but I guess that part I just took for granted since the -NAO is there across all guidance. The difference is the GEPS/EPS lost the EPO ridge and develops a flat pac ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Definitely but I guess that part I just took for granted since the -NAO is there across all guidance. The difference is the GEPS/EPS lost the EPO ridge and develops a flat pac ridge. Really want it to be pretty strongly negative and well placed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 I like this thread split already. We can look down the road at the modeled pattern and discuss it without upsetting some folks lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Really want it to be pretty strongly negative and well placed too. It’s a beast signature and centered almost perfect across all guidance. But if that degrades we’re screwed no matter what happens w EPo given how far west the pac ridge is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Nice improvement on the 12z EPS in the EPO region compared to 0z at hour 294. More GEFS like. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like this thread split already. We can look down the road at the modeled pattern and discuss it without upsetting some folks lol. I think the EPS took a baby step towards a better look for the threat window around the 20th much better ridging into the west and more depth to the eastern trough as well as a better alignment. Only snag is it still washes the wave in front of it out and so the WAR is still there. If that wave can amplify into a 50/50 that’s a really good look. But 2/3 factors moved in the right direction. Meatloaf approves. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nice improvement on the 12z EPS in the EPO region compared to 0z at hour 294. More GEFS like. Yes..took a step back from the ledge. Also better NAO block and that wasn’t even a problem to begin with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yes..took a step back from the ledge. Also better NAO block and that wasn’t even a problem to begin with. Check it out at hour 330. SER suppressed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes..took a step back from the ledge. Also better NAO block and that wasn’t even a problem to begin with. Better all the way around. Still tries to dump the trough out west near the end but it was a solid step towards the GEFS compared to 0z eight the EPO. We live to fight another day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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