nj2va Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just so I’m following...are we looking past the pattern change that gets us into a great look in the MR to now looking at the 2nd pattern change that is the unmitigated disaster in the LR? I forgot why I hated LR pattern tracking. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly. Yeah I get the great snow analogs and all with the big ass NE Pac trough, but that works better in a Nino, and the Pac jet has been on steroids in recent years. Our source region has been/is torched with Pac air, despite the favorable AO/NAO. It could still work given enough time, but the pattern is going to do what its going to do regardless. EPS does get some decent cold into our source region, and into the lower 48- its just focused out west beyond the next 10 days, and our friend the SER says HI. What we need is to strike a balance that is probably difficult to achieve in a Nina, and this is what the ens means are depicting with the trough retrograding and a developing ridge along the west coast and into the EPO domain. EPS now wants to make that idea transient and go full bore Pac ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEPS has the same idea as the EPS towards day 15. Sounds we need to score between the 17 th and the 23 rd. Have to admit though it would not surprise me for another model swing to better down the road. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Yeah I get the great snow analogs and all with the big ass NE Pac trough, but that works better in a Nino, and the Pac jet has been on steroids in recent years. Our source region has been/is torched with Pac air, despite the favorable AO/NAO. It could still work given enough time, but the pattern is going to do what its going to do regardless. EPS does get some decent cold into our source region, and into the lower 48- its just focused out west beyond the next 10 days, and our friend the SER says HI. What we need is to strike a balance that is probably difficult to achieve in a Nina- and this is what the ens means are depicting with the trough retrograding and a developing ridge along the west coast and into the EPO domain. EPS now wants to make that idea transient and go full bore Pac ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 @CAPE Paul has had the hottest hand so far in Pac recognition. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, frd said: Sounds we need to score between the 17 th and the 23 rd. Have to admit though it would not surprise me for another model swing to better down the road. I am not buying into the EPS pattern evolution at this point, esp with all the stuff occurring wayyy upstairs. We should all be pros at "wait and see" on the LR by now, while continuing to track any potential threat that pops up in the medium range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: Just so I’m following...are we looking past the pattern change that gets us into a great look in the MR to now looking at the 2nd pattern change that is the unmitigated disaster in the LR? I forgot why I hated LR pattern tracking. Not me. I like what i saw on the GEFS for the 17th-24th, and hopefully beyond. I mean, we cant just pretend the EPS is the JMA, so it certainly needs to be discussed in a thread that includes discussion of the LR. I would prefer the LR talk be in its own thread, but that idea seems to be dead lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am not buying into the EPS pattern evolution at this point, esp with all the stuff occurring wayyy upstairs. We should all be pros at "wait and see" on the LR by now, while continuing to track any potential threat that pops up in the medium range. Exactly, the EPS has been wrong many times, while the GEFS has won many forecasts over the Euro Op and the EPS . I say all options are on the table at this time moving forward. The GFS has been extremely erratic, no news there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not me. I like what i saw on the GEFS for the 17th-24th, and hopefully beyond. I mean, we cant just pretend the EPS is the JMA, so it certainly needs to be discussed in a thread that includes discussion of the LR. I would prefer the LR talk be in its own thread, but that idea seems to be dead lol. Given the model chaos that we have all accepted, I think it would make sense to have two threads this year. Of course, I don’t know much of anything about weather, but I do know a thing or two about administration! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Ever since the Super Nino it has been a mess, and last year was the year of the West Pac hyper warm MJO cycle. Every year it is a negative driver, you pick , West Pac, IO record phase, etc. etc. It might just be the new normal in the warm regime. Reminds me of growing up in Michigan in the 1990's when we hardly ever got significant snowstorms. I don't see any signs or reason for the oceans to suddenly start cooling any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: If true, anyone whomever posts the stupid weeklies should be banned Have you noticed the continuous, almost laughable, repetitive predictable failure of the modeling when it forecast cold or a colder pattern, been happening more and more the last three years, maybe related to the whatever, all I know is modeling can not be trusted and the evolving base state is ruining everything it seems. I'm just an armchair amateur and I subscribe to all the WB models mostly just for fun, I've been doing it for a couple years now because I like learning about the weather. But frankly I've become really disenchanted with modeling. There have been dozens (hundreds?) of runs of models, even in the 5-day timeframe over the past two years that have showed significant storms and EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. has been wrong. Not just a little wrong, but completely wrong. That's an embarressment. Like serious, every single run showing snow has been wrong for two years. The temps haven't even scored that well. What's the point of them? They're terrible. I try looking at the h5 level just to get the pattern trend but outside of 2-4 days they aren't even accurate. I'd be better off just looking at my weatherbug app and its 10-day forecast. Maybe the pros get more out of them because they can apply some sort of bullshit filter to each run. Thinking about it further, I'd have to run some statistical analysis and I'm not going to waste my time doing it, but just the laws of random chaos should dictate that at least a few of the runs showing snow would come to fruition. It's hard to actually be so bad to pitch no hitters for multiple years in a row. Eventually you start to accuse the pitcher of rigging the game... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 59 minutes ago, frd said: Teleconnections have been great for weeks on end, and we have zero snow to prove for it . We see most of our snow when they are favorable, but that doesn't mean we always do. And we can get snow when they are mostly in the wrong phase sometimes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, frd said: Teleconnections have been great for weeks on end, and we have zero snow to prove for it . Except for the Pac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Except for the Pac Are you including the EPO? I am just referring to the PNA, AO and PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 She’s probably going to cut and that GL low isn’t helping but is this not close to a good look? I’m still learning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: She’s probably going to cut and that GL low isn’t helping but is this not close to a good look? I’m still learning here. In that setup the block would have to be much further SW. that’s not necessarily an east based -NAO but it’s too east based for the pattern over the US. Also that piece over the northern plains might phase in to an extent. It might work out for New England but not the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, MocoMike said: That isn’t actually a good look. That’s the first wave (of what was supposed to be a more extended period) but that isn’t going to produce a snowstorm here. 1. That trough doesn’t have enough depth. 2 look at the ridging in front of it. 3. The antecedent airmass sucks. The cold is behind the wave. so...ridge in front, crap airmass, no depth...any storm with that trough is going north of us. If you look at the individual members you will see what I mean. It would be the next wave that has potential. But the problem is there is no next wave on that EPS run. It retrogrades the pattern too quickly such that nothing can amplify east and knock down the WAR and becoming a 50/50. Instead the trough axis pulls into the west and everything would cut then wash out. The next wave (the one I identified on the GEFS last night as a good threat window) never makes it into the east. It’s only one run. I’m not jumping on this. I was just pointing out that it’s there. The EPS paints a fail picture. I’m not ready to jump ship because of one bad run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: In that setup the block would have to be much further SW. that’s not necessarily an east based -NAO but it’s too east based for the pattern over the US. Also that piece over the northern plains might phase in to an extent. It might work out for New England but not the MA. Thx. Verbatim it ended up a snow to rain event for most of us. But still close to a good event. Better in NE as you predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 hours ago, frd said: Ah, but the weakening Nina, a game changer. 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Ha I just mentioned that. Is that still a thing? Imo it doesn’t matter once we get to March anyways. The shorter wavelengths have made March a wildcard in a Nina. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation with some Nina years ending cold/snowy and some a torch with no regard to the strength of the Nina into late winter. Nina forcing is bad so it’s not gonna hurt to see it weaken but we’re at the point where it’s becoming irrelevant because by the time the lag wears off the part of the season where Nina has much impact has ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I am not buying into the EPS pattern evolution at this point, esp with all the stuff occurring wayyy upstairs. We should all be pros at "wait and see" on the LR by now, while continuing to track any potential threat that pops up in the medium range. Me either. I debated not even bringing it up but I’m not a head in the sand kind of guy. That option is there. My guess is that their progressing the pattern too quickly. We also haven’t seen any impact from the SSW yet. Lastly we’ve seen blocking regimes head fake a break down on guidance many times before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Imo it doesn’t matter once we get to March anyways. The shorter wavelengths have made March a wildcard in a Nina. There doesn’t seem to be any correlation with some Nina years ending cold/snowy and some a torch with no regard to the strength of the Nina into late winter. Nina forcing is bad so it’s not gonna hurt to see it weaken but we’re at the point where it’s becoming irrelevant because by the time the lag wears off the part of the season where Nina has much impact has ended. Agree. That was mostly a subtle troll attempt on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Except for the Pac What Pac tele are you referring too? We’ve had a +PNA since late Nov and the EPO has no correlation to snowfall here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Agree. That was mostly a subtle troll attempt on my part. Gotcha lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Me either. I debated not even bringing it up but I’m not a head in the sand kind of guy. That option is there. My guess is that their progressing the pattern too quickly. We also haven’t seen any impact from the SSW yet. Lastly we’ve seen blocking regimes head fake a break down on guidance many times before. We shouldn't be "afraid" to mention/discuss unfavorable pattern elements that show up on an ens run in a LR thread. Maybe we need fainting couches for those who are perpetually on the edge of panic in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: In that setup the block would have to be much further SW. that’s not necessarily an east based -NAO but it’s too east based for the pattern over the US. Also that piece over the northern plains might phase in to an extent. It might work out for New England but not the MA. I think the ridge axis (too far west) out west is a bigger issue. As I argued last night the NAO may not be a picture perfect Davis strait Rex block there...but it’s not supposed to be that hard to get snow. We don’t live in the tropics. A regular old Greenland -NAO ridge has resulted in snow here plenty. Maybe not a 20” HECS but a snowstorm. You can nitpick a minor flaw in almost any pattern. But there is way more right then wrong there. Yet lately is seems unless everything is 100% perfect in every way we can’t buy a snowstorm near DC. ETA: I said near DC because DCA is a joke. It doesn’t surprise me if a runway on an island south of DC at sea level lower in elevation then everyone around them can’t get snow. But even places around DC that average 20” a year can’t seem to buy any snow lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Verbatim 12z GFS is a disaster with one storm missing north and another missing south, but good to see at least some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What Pac tele are you referring too? We’ve had a +PNA since late Nov and the EPO has no correlation to snowfall here. You saying the EPO has no correlation to cold? Cold has a correlation to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 LOL that’s one of the best runs we’ve had for the gfs and the first thing said is what’s wrong with it. Time for me to do something else. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MocoMike Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL that’s one of the best runs we’ve had for the gfs and the first thing said is what’s wrong with it. Time for me to do something else. Um yeah. I thought the same thing! If you are looking for increased chances of at least seeing some snow (far better than what we have seen recently), it looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL that’s one of the best runs we’ve had for the gfs and the first thing said is what’s wrong with it. Time for me to do something else. Was thinking the same. Run certainly wasn't perfect, but at least showed signs of hope. Alas, folks just gonna over analyze everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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