WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: I know you feel strongly. I have lived with the facts for 20 years. It’s a take a shot at all scenarios and claim confirmation when one hits. We’ve had about 7 solid snow looks in the 5 day+, one has semi confirmed Ok. Then you forecast the next two weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS is about as fast and progressive a flow thru majority of the run that I have seen in quite a while. Getting something to dig and amplify in that regime is going to be one hell of a challenge. Somehow I thought that is what a -NAO gave us the opportunity for a vort to slow down, dig and amplify. Is this not true? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Somehow I thought that is what a -NAO gave us the opportunity for a vort to slow down, dig and amplify. Is this not true? You gotta have that upstream ridge. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Somehow I thought that is what a -NAO gave us the opportunity for a vort to slow down, dig and amplify. Is this not true? A flat ridge or displaced ridge in the NAO region won't slow down the flow. Rather it will suppress the flow (sliders) but allow things to keep zipping along quickly. Also the ridging keeps rolling over and a true block never establishes, tho some will argue semantics over what a true block is. We are seeing short-lived blocking but overall it is flat ridging that continually rolls over on itself keeping the flow underneath flat and fast in the NS. I'm not saying the GFS is right, but that is not the look verbatim of a blocking regime in the NAO region nor is it a big dog look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, IronTy said: Good for him I guess. I definitely wouldn't be able to play football this Sunday though. The joint and muscle aches are out of this world and I'm a former competitive bodybuilder so I don't consider myself a slacker. I got tested Monday and got it. How you feeling so far. I felt a little not ok for about 2/3 days and now feel pretty good. Except I can’t taste or smell. Hope you recover soon. Don’t workout for awhile. Even a couple weeks thereafter. You’ll want to avoid myocarditis. My regiment has been lots of fresh squeezed juice (I have a juicer) tons of fresh ginger and lemon water. Tons. And the key vitamins suggested for specifically helping with covid. Zinc, d, and a quality multi. Also, eating minimal to limit inflammation and tons of water. Access to fresh air and I’ve been practicing light yoga and breathing for blood flow and some sort of cardiovascular work. Just very light. Hope it goes well for you. Again don’t work out. I know it’s hard. I was a former collegiate strength coach so yea, that parts rough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 22 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I have lived with the facts for 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Truthiness: belief or assertion that a particular statement is true based on intuition or perception, without regard to evidence, logic, intellectual examination, or facts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: A flat ridge or displaced ridge in the NAO region won't slow down the flow. Rather it will suppress the flow (sliders) but allow things to keep zipping along quickly. Also the ridging keeps rolling over and a true block never establishes, tho some will argue semantics over what a true block is. We are seeing short-lived blocking but overall it is flat ridging that continually rolls over on itself keeping the flow underneath flat and fast in the NS. I'm not saying the GFS is right, but that is not the look verbatim of a blocking regime in the NAO region nor is it a big dog look. It’s not a Rex block but it is an omega block or NAO ridge. A Rex block is better. The rare white elk pattern. So I’m not saying the details you just posted are wrong. But the way you say it kind of implies we need a Rex block to snow. We’ve had plenty of big snowstorms with a regular old -NAO and not a full on Rex block. I am as frustrated as everyone but I keep seeing these posts blaming very minor imperfections in an overall very good longwave pattern as if the pattern is all wrong. We would almost never get snow if we needed all these variables to be absolutely perfect like some imply. And I know lately it has been that way but I’d like to hope that’s just bad luck and not a new normal because if the only way we can snow is if we have a full on Rex block located exactly over the Davis strait with a +PNA and a -EPO and cross polar flow and a displaced TPV we will get one snowstorm a decade if we’re lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I dunno, I just feel like the cold air has been in Siberia for all of this winter. I look at the temperature anomaly maps every day and I see a big blue and white ball of cold anomalies in Kazakstan that doesn't want to budge. Hopefully that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 GEFS says temper your expectations for snow through the next 9-10 days outside the mountains. While a threat could pop up in the short/medium range and/or next week trends back into a minor event, today’s guidance has been pointing to the more favorable period many here have talked about for increased snow chances. It sucks, but it is what it is. If the strong ULL works out over MLK weekend, I’d suggest people chase to the mountains of MD/WV and get your dose of snow. Good for the psyche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I got tested Monday and got it. How you feeling so far. I felt a little not ok for about 2/3 days and now feel pretty good. Except I can’t taste or smell. Hope you recover soon. Don’t workout for awhile. Even a couple weeks thereafter. You’ll want to avoid myocarditis. My regiment has been lots of fresh squeezed juice (I have a juicer) tons of fresh ginger and lemon water. Tons. And the key vitamins suggested for specifically helping with covid. Zinc, d, and a quality multi. Also, eating minimal to limit inflammation and tons of water. Access to fresh air and I’ve been practicing light yoga and breathing for blood flow and some sort of cardiovascular work. Just very light. Hope it goes well for you. Again don’t work out. I know it’s hard. I was a former collegiate strength coach so yea, that parts rough Thanks for the kind words. Also good to hear you're doing so well. So far it's been a classic case of the flu for me: 1. Very run down for a few days wondering why my workouts are so crappy. 2. Whole body starts aching and feels like I'm 110yo with arthritis. Also have weird dreams and night sweats. This started two days ago. 3. Cough starts and headache too. This started today. So basically a textbook flu for me, just a really amplified one. Next will be the sore throat and stuffy nose. I never get fevers for whatever reason. I am fortunate enough to have a very well equipped basement gym so I don't even go to the actual gym anymore. But for sure I won't be doing any workouts for a while other than gentle stretching and foam rolling. I'm retired from competition now anyway, I just lift for fun at the old age of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 48 minutes ago, IronTy said: Thanks for the kind words. Also good to hear you're doing so well. So far it's been a classic case of the flu for me: 1. Very run down for a few days wondering why my workouts are so crappy. 2. Whole body starts aching and feels like I'm 110yo with arthritis. Also have weird dreams and night sweats. This started two days ago. 3. Cough starts and headache too. This started today. So basically a textbook flu for me, just a really amplified one. Next will be the sore throat and stuffy nose. I never get fevers for whatever reason. I am fortunate enough to have a very well equipped basement gym so I don't even go to the actual gym anymore. But for sure I won't be doing any workouts for a while other than gentle stretching and foam rolling. I'm retired from competition now anyway, I just lift for fun at the old age of 40. Good stuff man. Sounds pretty classic. Feel better soon brother. Then you gotta get back to those heavy DLs... 40 is the new 25! On a weather note, lol, check out this crazy map on TT. This is the time period I’m looking at right now. There is some potential for merging right here of the NS and SS. So close to a good storm look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not a Rex block but it is an omega block or NAO ridge. A Rex block is better. The rare white elk pattern. So I’m not saying the details you just posted are wrong. But the way you say it kind of implies we need a Rex block to snow. We’ve had plenty of big snowstorms with a regular old -NAO and not a full on Rex block. I am as frustrated as everyone but I keep seeing these posts blaming very minor imperfections in an overall very good longwave pattern as if the pattern is all wrong. We would almost never get snow if we needed all these variables to be absolutely perfect like some imply. And I know lately it has been that way but I’d like to hope that’s just bad luck and not a new normal because if the only way we can snow is if we have a full on Rex block located exactly over the Davis strait with a +PNA and a -EPO and cross polar flow and a displaced TPV we will get one snowstorm a decade if we’re lucky. It seems like a combination of bad luck + us jumping the gun. From Jan 1st we had known that the best chance of snow would be Jan 15-25 onwards, but a few favorable model runs speeding up the breakdown of the negative PNA had us looking for some gravy before our main window arrived. Some of those looks produced pretty snow means, mainly for the events on the 8th and 12th. Considering those storms as well as the one on the 3rd, it's somewhat clear to see why we've been effectively shutout. Those have all been rather weak waves that struggled to produce much precip or to struggled to pull in any cold air. The 3rd is a decent example of this, and even there it gave upstate PA a modest snowfall while we got a pitiful initial wave of light rain. The 8th was rather suppressed in the medium range, but some runs showed the route in which we could've scored there. Even as you mentioned, without a moderate temp gradient the precip shield was anemic at best and that threat went right out the window. As for Jan 12th that's still TBD, but yet another weak wave won't amount to much for us as currently modeled. Outside of the 8th and 12th threats on the super early Jan ensembles, most members still pasted our region with +5-10 temp departures in 850s and in surface temps through mid month. With weak precipitation that's not gonna do much in the way of snowfall in our general region. Part of me looks at NC and Texas getting decent snow as proof that we're simply dealing with wrong place and wrong time, but who knows. We've certainly punted great patterns before, and in a moderate Nina it seems fitting. Hope our mid/late Jan luck is better, and hopefully if the SE ridge does try to flex itself in, we can wiggle our way to the positive side of the snow gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Icon hints at this possible shot end of run 120hr Subtle changes in spacing and timing could be something 18z EPS has a small cluster of those lows off the shore on Thursday (12z EPS had a few but not as many) . I guess considering that if that followup wave happens, it's 6 days out now, but wouldn't the great lake low ruin the party?? The control also had this, which seems pretty close to something other than a nonevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 18z EPS has a small cluster of those lows off the shore on Thursday (12z EPS had a few but not as many) . I guess considering that if that followup wave happens, it's 6 days out now, but wouldn't the great lake low ruin the party?? Too many GL lows on that plot. That’s the issue (right now) as well with the day 9-12 time frame. Lots of northern stream action and lows hanging around the lakes. Does this happen with greater frequency due to the cross polar flow that is being modeled? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Isotherm stated earlier for a major SSWE I think it was a full 5 days or more of a wind reversal. Looking at some data tonight it appears a secondary push below 0 will occur in about 5 days and from there it could be 5 to 7 days until the winds revert back to Westerly Also noticed here both the GEFS and the bias corrected CFSv2 have trended with a weaker vortex moving forward. Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: Too many GL lows on that plot. That’s the issue (right now) as well with the day 9-12 time frame. Lots of northern stream action and lows hanging around the lakes. Does this happen with greater frequency due to the cross polar flow that is being modeled? Aren't GL lows more prevalent during Nina's due to them being more NS dominant? Or is it something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Aren't GL lows more prevalent during Nina's due to them being more NS dominant? Or is it something else? That sounds right. Our resident (honorary) meteorologist @psuhoffman could probably confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Aren't GL lows more prevalent during Nina's due to them being more NS dominant? Or is it something else? Generally yes. Fast dominant NS will increase the chances. But that’s kind of the status quo. The mean NS position will be just to our north in winter and so that places the most likely path of those NS SWs through the lakes. We complain about bad luck but it’s really just normal. Getting a high blocked in to our north is the unusual thing. That’s why snow isn’t normal here. We’re too far south to typically get much from those NS polar boundary waves and getting the pattern we need to make a southern stream system work isn’t that common either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Boom!! GFS creeping the cold rain closer on Tuesday. ETA: Meh. Swing and miss on the light rain. I’m moving to Seattle... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Arrival of cold still looks on pace for around the 15th 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Trying to spin a low up at 162 That should have had a much better precip representation but it will look completely different in 6 hours anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 A discreet threat window might be coming into focus. This setup is hinted at on the CMC GEFS and EPS. Around Jan 18-20 The -NAO is centered and oriented in a much better location (across all guidance) there compared to this first iteration (below). The orientation there (especially how it extends back into Quebec and Ontario is too suppressive. That’s going to shift the storm track pretty far SE but it’s also completely cutting off any cold (even domestic cold) from Canada. But the look above day 9 is where we want a block centered. That prevents excess ridging in the east but allows enough room for a wave to amplify. It also allows cold intrusion into the US from western Canada. We likely have a colder antecedent airmass to work with. Clear 50/50 signature but with a decent spacing between waves and a sharp ridge (we want sharper not shallow with those wavelengths and blocking) far enough west to allow that wave to dig in to out west. Provided that wave can have enough depth/amplitude such that the southern branch gets involved and it can track under us that would be a good setup. The parts are all there. Imo the first really truly good look at a discreet period/threat. But it’s still on the far edge of where we can see any details with clarify. I will be interested in how this time period evolves the next few days. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 If this 10 day mean January 15-25 can’t produce something...I don’t know what to say 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 1994 has been showing in the week 2 analogs a lot. Interesting. I can see the similarities but this year has more NAO blocking and everything is displaced south because of it on the long range guidance. Get a 1994 type pattern but shift it south 100 miles and we would be pretty happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 2014 not a horrible match except again featured displaced south due to the -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If this 10 day mean January 15-25 can’t produce something...I don’t know what to say I take it we have ample cold air with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 Not even much interest in the late night model runs, so even though I'm normally just a lurker I'll say thanks psuhoffman for the continued analysis and keeping hope alive. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2021 Share Posted January 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I take it we have ample cold air with that? Considering our source region there is the North Pole I would hope so. If we can’t get any cold in that pattern it’s time to pack it in. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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