January Long Range Disco Thread

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

We can add Texas to the list in about 48 hours.  Then Louisiana as well.  

If you like SE snow, GFS says 'look at me D12!' 

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Here's a shot from Jonesville in Lee County this Morning. 

Hmmm. Airmass problems 

[frd]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know the vortex west of AK was preventing cross polar flow. But it was also preventing a typical Nina response in the PAC longwave pattern by suppressing the central pac ridge.  Our longwave pattern purely from a storm track POV has been perfect but we just needed that to back off some. I wanted to take my chances that we eventually get cold enough in that look. But the N PAC vortex looks to exit completely. That means a ridge through AK will pop and we will get cold injected into the pattern. But it also means the we will be fighting attempts to build an eastern ridge in that longwave pattern. The ridge will end up too far west without that vortex to suppress it and shunt it east. So long as there is still good blocking that can work.  If the AO remains negative it will squeeze the trough far enough southeast to get the thermal gradient into the east despite the SE ridge. That could set up a 2014 type look. But the danger is if the blocking relaxes the gradient will likely end up to our NW. 

Appreciate your posts  PSU , I imagine  it  is a double edged sword to a degree, we'll get our opportunity hopefully between the 16 th and 25 th. 

[PivotPoint]

My fear about the upcoming “good” pattern is starting to seem a bit more substantiated at h5 on recent runs, as we move past the 15th. Lots of sw’s that shear ots under our block and fast flow coming off the eastern seaboard, IN to the Atlantic @psuhoffman thoughts?

[chris21]

20 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Also, I think the reason the cities haven't had any real snow is not because of some new normal. I think it's just been a ridiculous amount of bad luck so far. I know that's not a scientific answer. However, it is snowing in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia today.  Yes, even in this crap airmass. We just haven't had any real threats recently and the one's we've had have literally been 50-100 miles away from being huge hits.

 

This line of thinking has kind of kept me sane over the past couple winters. At some point, we will get lucky. At some point we will get the big dog. Until then I  try to be at peace that I live just south of Baltimore near the bay and any snow I receive is a bonus and not a guarantee. 

I used to live in Asheville and although there is elevation it is def less snowy than DC.  They are def getting somewhat lucky so far.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

I used to live in Asheville and although there is elevation it is def less snowy than DC.  They are def getting somewhat lucky so far.

my wife wants to move to NC---i know i will never see snow again if that happens but is it easy to drive to Beach Mountain?

[North Balti Zen]

From Asheville? Yes. From the outer banks? No.

[Wxdavis5784]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

my wife wants to move to NC---i know i will never see snow again if that happens but is it easy to drive to Beach Mountain?

Depends on where in NC you are. If you are on the coast you are 6+ hrs from there.

[chris21]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

my wife wants to move to NC---i know i will never see snow again if that happens but is it easy to drive to Beach Mountain?

Im looking at places in Roan, Beech and Boone. My gf is surprisingly ok with the 3500’ requirement so I’m going all in. If you live in Asheville it’s unbelievably easy to chase snow. Most spots are 20-30 minutes from decent upslope locations. The city itself normally misses out.

[BristowWx]

19 minutes ago, chris21 said:

I used to live in Asheville and although there is elevation it is def less snowy than DC.  They are def getting somewhat lucky so far.

Their average is I think 10 inches.  DC is what maybe 13 or so.  I think it’s a wash with the elevation giving Asheville the edge. And less traffic  

[chris21]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Their average is I think 10 inches.  DC is what maybe 13 or so.  I think it’s a wash with the elevation giving Asheville the edge. And less traffic  

They have a tiny amount of big years and the average temps are warmer. I’m thinking more about NW DC/Bethesda climo than DCA. Most of their snow comes from 1 inch upslope events that melt within hours. Those same events dump lots of snow up high though.

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Im looking at places in Roan, Beech and Boone. My gf is surprisingly ok with the 3500’ requirement so I’m going all in. If you live in Asheville it’s unbelievably easy to chase snow. Most spots are 20-30 minutes from decent upslope locations. The city itself normally misses out.

thats exactly what i wanted to know. She is looking at Mooresville...and it looks like that is about 1.5 hours away from Booone/Beach. Closer than Western MD from my house now. Is it tough to get up there with terrain,etc?

 

i told her that only condition i would move is if i get 2-3 trips a year by myself to chase snow

[chris21]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats exactly what i wanted to know. She is looking at Mooresville...and it looks like that is about 1.5 hours away from Booone/Beach. Closer than Western MD from my house now. Is it tough to get up there with terrain,etc?

If you are experienced with driving in snow in the mountains you’ll be fine. I was probably more adventurous than I should have been in my Camry but I never had any issues even in blizzard conditions. I will say that I lived near snowshoe for a couple years so Im relatively experienced with it. Even though it’s in the south, the counties to the north and west of Asheville average enough snow (between 40-90 inches) to be mostly on the ball with road clearing operations.

[BristowWx]

Actually my wife wants us to move to Lake Norman.  I can’t bear the thought of moving south unless it’s up in elevation.  I hardly get snow now. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Actually my wife wants us to move to Lake Norman.  I can’t bear the thought of moving south unless it’s up in elevation.  I hardly get snow now. 

I don't have a wife and I can live anywhere I want to

[Wxdavis5784]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats exactly what i wanted to know. She is looking at Mooresville...and it looks like that is about 1.5 hours away from Booone/Beach. Closer than Western MD from my house now. Is it tough to get up there with terrain,etc?

 

i told her that only condition i would move is if i get 2-3 trips a year by myself to chase snow

321 is a beautiful drive.

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I don't have a wife and I can live anywhere I want to

Same

[Paleocene]

NC is great and all but can we move this stuff to banter? We can't even complain about not getting digital snow and instead go OT about residential location choice in relation to average annual snowfall!

But, I see why we're upset...

[Ji]

Actually my wife wants us to move to Lake Norman.  I can’t bear the thought of moving south unless it’s up in elevation.  I hardly get snow now. 

Same man. Her friends moved there and are gushing about it. We’re suppose to go visit spring break smh


.

[MocoMike]

[Ji]

very sad what happened to the Tuesday storm.

The euro on 3 different occasions hit us with a big snowstorm--its like we had 3 different takes on how to get snow and it looks like we are going to strike out on all 3

[Ji]

this map is ridiculous. 2 states in the country have any kind of precip?

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this map is ridiculous. 2 states in the country have any kind of precip?

I see at least 6 states w precip. Just sayin'.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

very sad what happened to the Tuesday storm.

The euro on 3 different occasions hit us with a big snowstorm--its like we had 3 different takes on how to get snow and it looks like we are going to strike out on all 3

Require universal agreement for a snow threat these days and unless it's a 1996 type event would like that in the medium range. Simply can't put much faith in modeling these last few winters. An abundance of failures. However, still like the threat period ahead. 

[nj2va]

29 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

 

The only thing about that 500 map that I missed picking up on from the 6z version is I wonder if that suggests a Miller B pattern given the deepest 500 anomalies are centered north of our latitude.  @CAPE - would we want those focused a bit further south?

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I see at least 6 states w precip. Just sayin'.

Are we still counting Cali as a state?

[arlwx]

Waiting until February, according to the GFS, to start looking for my flamethrower.

[AmericanWxFreak]

30 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I see at least 6 states w precip. Just sayin'.

I see 7 though...

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

my wife wants to move to NC---i know i will never see snow again if that happens but is it easy to drive to Beach Mountain?

Move to Boone 

[MocoMike]

12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The only thing about that 500 map that I missed picking up on from the 6z version is I wonder if that suggests a Miller B pattern given the deepest 500 anomalies are centered north of our latitude.  @CAPE - would we want those focused a bit further south?

It does definitely look more NS dominated during this period, so I imagine a Miller B screw job would be the biggest threat.  All about getting that dig so the transfer happens below us.  With the blocking in the ideal location, one can only hope. That said...this period, as others have been mentioning, looks like our best chance at getting something to come together; given temps look to finally cooperate.