WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para getting closer with the weekend system. It already tickles Md with snow . A bit more separation from the Maine MC Hammer sw and @CAPEis shoveling a couple inches. Let’s keep this alive brother. No way we are out on that thing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 It would help if we could slow the sw a bit and deepen it a little further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Fwiw Icon at 120 looks like the euro and is amplifying the trough in the Miss Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's. If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event. If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential. What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 For those wondering about the cold, the end of the 18z OP GFS has DC not getting out of the upper 20s on Inauguration Day. Sub zero air in Canada and the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Jeez, everyone is getting on the bandwagon! GFS must be wrong with digital snow totals. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/arctic-outbreaks-major-winter-storms-may-unfold-thanks-to-polar-vortex/877841 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago i think it was the gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago That used to be the Euro - thought to do better in Nina years. Dunno if that holds in a Nina year that blocks like a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i think it was the gfs lol Seriously, no. It was the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 58 minutes ago, Ji said: you cant draw up a worst 500mb to spark a storm. Absolutely horrid Honestly I could use a little dry weather to do some things outside. I'm tired of all this mud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 @losetoa6 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well. I don’t know. One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS. We’ll see which one ends up correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well. thats exactly what i thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: @losetoa6 It literally farted out flakes...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: It literally farted out flakes...lol Baby steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 I think my brother, who oddly enough lives NW of Greensboro NC, has had more snow than me the last couple years lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I don’t know. One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS. We’ll see which one ends up correct. I think we know how this works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person Do you by any chance hunt animals for the kill but don't eat the meat? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 No panic until after this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said: No panic until after this timeframe This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity. say it again for the people in the back ... @Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Flurry Fringed I’ve noticed the rain here has been getting colder with each storm. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS through Day 14 says patience will be needed... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 GEFS are pretty adamant that the coldest anoms in the NH shift to NA in the LR. Not saying its good or bad for snow prospects but its impressive to see how quick the extreme cold fades across east Asia and forms in NA. Cross polar flow stole it right out from under them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS through Day 14 says patience will be needed... Maybe we could sneak in a clipper or 2. Maybe the block is just too darn epic. Sorry for the language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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