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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker @Ji 

6D5F1A67-E8DB-4F7E-A67E-C2E0DF361A25.thumb.jpeg.baf7363573c1539cbb9b62368f7a2e02.jpeg

this needs to go away. GFS actually had an excellent representation of the wave in the Miss Valley but it’s can’t amplify and pump and ridge in front with that there. NAM doesn’t have that feature and that’s why it was coming north had it gone out 12 more hours.  

Same verse, same as the first.  I'm mostly joking by posting the 84 hour NAM because I know it's going to eventually correct to what the globals say...but man, I wish it pull a shocker and be right

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0z Euro seems to have that slowed down wave idea.. weak/no precip through Tuesday but the secondary wave of precip gets to just south of our area near 0z Wednesday.. not much in the form of anything, but it's quite the trend considering that the 12z run had no precip during that time. Perhaps this is what we want?

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

6z GFS has a totally different look beyond 180 and it’s not a good look.  Ridge in SE popping up like crabgrass

Seeing hints of the EPAC ridge strengthen/retrograde into its typical Nina happy place towards day 15 on the ens means. That would favor some troughing out west. Long way off, and even with some signs of that on the means, the -AO/NAO/EPO are still there. Hell, the way things are going so far, we could use a bit of a SE ridge.

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45 minutes ago, nj2va said:

6z GEFS isn’t enthused on snow chances for the next 7-8 days.  Continues to suggest our chances increase after the 15th/16th.

ETA:  Here’s the 7 day mean ending 1/22.  if we can’t score a warning-level event in this pattern along 95, time to see PSU and Ji go scorched earth.

Are you feeling our window has narrowed down a bit?  Its looks like it can produce near the 20 to 23  rd , but the longevity of it seems to be lessening. We kind of knew the Pac would improve, but then go the other way again. 

Certainly possible we warm up in early Feb only to turn colder again later. If indeed this SSWe has any role in our sensible weather it would produce another period of - NAM later in Feb.  

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

Are you feeling our window has narrowed down a bit?  Its looks like it can produce near the 20 to 23  rd , but the longevity of it seems to be lessening. We kind of knew the Pac would improve, but then go the other way again. 

Certainly possible we warm up in early Feb only to turn colder again later. If indeed this SSWe has any role in our sensible weather it would produce another period of - NAM later in Feb.  

Lol after all this......we have a 3 day window for winter weather.

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38 minutes ago, frd said:

 

This still looks poor. 

The Pac puke has left its mark in Canada.  

I know some are expecting a change here by mid month, we shall see.  

 

 

 

It's not that it left its mark. It is still occurring. Until that NE PAC trough weakens and retrogrades, and the PAC jet relaxes, the puke continues to flow into our source region. That happens right around mid month and as the PNA/EPO ridge develops, the fire hose is pinched off and we have a mechanism to inject polar air southward. 

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1610701200-ZRHtmfcqqMU.png

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