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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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37 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

You waited until last sentence to lose your credibility. 

Yeah I was like...seriously? Lol Gonna get on me, but give him a pass? I guess if that's the standard, if you complain, I guess as long as you post a model map in the same post as said complaint you're contributing and not part of the problem! :lol:

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising.

1611316800-YuRQ1ebyQqU.png

thats not the blue i wanna see bro

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I was like...seriously? Lol Gonna get on me, but give him a pass? I guess if that's the standard, if you complain, I guess as long as you post a model map in the same post as said complaint you're contributing and not part of the problem! :lol:

Yeh man you get little doom and gloomy at times, but so much more chill than vajina. He's just so oversaturated 

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising.

1611316800-YuRQ1ebyQqU.png

I feel like a broken record but everything really is progressing in the way we outlined a week ago and is typical of a blocking regime. There has been no degradation of the progression. The only let down is there was hope we “could” score something during the early phase of the blocking with some luck. 
 

My optimism for the Jan 15-30 hasn’t waned but waiting sucks. But I do keep having this thought lately...and touched on it with wxusaf earlier,  it seems we don’t luck into minor events in decent patterns anymore.  Waiting a while into a blocking pattern isn’t unusual. But in the past we usually had minor events along the way. 1995/6 we didn’t have any warning events until Jan 7 and that block established in early December but we had a string of minor events along the way.  Lately it feels like we wait around for a perfect setup to get a big storm and otherwise it’s shutout city where we can’t even get a car topper. That makes this harder. Even a couple 1-2” events would probably make the mood more bearable. 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats not the blue i wanna see bro

you are really funny sometimes 

sometimes 

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33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising.

1611316800-YuRQ1ebyQqU.png

Keep us on the path to righteousness my friend 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Checking the various news outlets on line...CNN headline: polar vortex may be on the way...now shits gettin real

Its never good when the laymen folk start talking about the polar vortex...since they don't have a fukking clue what it actually is.

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@Ji @WxUSAF @CAPE

3 of the last 4 runs of the op gfs have looked like the ensembles do day 10-15. 
DBE34172-17A6-485B-9A03-33A76B3C318D.thumb.png.d6d72a3e6030a96f84c787971340d9c9.png

and suddenly we’re seeing snow in that period almost every run. This run was about to bury us at the end. I also doubt that day 10 storm lifts that far north before jumping to the coast. But the main point is the op gfs is hinting how that pattern would play out. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji @WxUSAF @CAPE

3 of the last 4 runs of the op gfs have looked like the ensembles do day 10-15. 

and suddenly we’re seeing snow in that period almost every run. This run was about to bury us at the end. I also doubt that day 10 storm lifts that far north before jumping to the coast. But the main point is the op gfs is hinting how that pattern would play out. 

I’m not a fan of living and dying by snowfall mean maps BUT 18z GEFS 5 day snowfall mean (1/16-1/21) is 2” in DC.  That’s as good a signal we could expect 10-14 days out for a 5 day mean.  

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I’m not a fan of living and dying by snowfall mean maps BUT 18z GEFS 5 day snowfall mean (1/16-1/21) is 2” in DC.  That’s as good a signal we could expect 10-14 days out for a 5 day mean.  

The best window is just starting to enter range. I expect to see those maps light up a bit more in the next few days. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The best window is just starting to enter range. I expect to see those maps light up a bit more in the next few days. 

Yeah the next few days begins the transition from Pac flood to injection of Polar air into our source region and then southward.

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_22.png

gfs-ens_T850a_namer_47.png

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF @CAPE


This is a 10 day mean day 6-16. If we can’t snow with this pattern in mid to late January then it’s time to let @Ji loose on one of his scorched earth burn it to the ground epic tirades. I’ll even join in. 

We’ll be talking about the epic MLK day blizzard with that pattern.

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