January Long Range Disco Thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

Too much chaos here. Don’t take what you’re seeing past about 3 days as gospel.

That alone explains why the usually consistent Euro is bouncing.

[Cobalt]

I've seen worse snow means?

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Can always thread a needle, and that was pretty marginal. You didn't have to go too far east find just another cold rain event.

that wasnt really threading the needle. You wont really find a better event for the Middle of Dec. We got a little unlucky...we were close to a 15-20 inch event

[WxUSAF]

@Cobalt yeah that could very well be. Some basic domestic cold isn’t enough when we’re permanently 5F above “normal”. If we get some of this very meridional flow from NW Canada in another 10 days or so and we’re still only getting lows in the low 20s and highs near 40?? Sheesh. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. 

At least we get the EPO tho right? 

So long as the AO/NAO stay negative that WPO ridge will put us in the game. But if the NAO/AO flip that epo ridge is centered way too far west. In a +NAO we would need the EPO ridge positively tilted extending into the Yukon not centered through AK. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

sounds like we might get a week of winter this winter---hopefully it turns out as well as Jan 25-32nd in 2000

Don’t forget that nice 3-5” event around Jan 20 that year 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

that wasnt really threading the needle. You wont really find a better event for the Middle of Dec. We got a little unlucky...we were close to a 15-20 inch event

I wish I could have been a little unlucky instead of a lot unlucky then.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

then you got 9 inches before a week before FAll solstice even ended

I was talking about the DC area. I am below climo for up here now anyways and that’s pretty astounding given the AO. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Still Plenty of decent hits on the Eps for day5/6 

Shockingly it trended more amped after everything else went sheared 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I've seen worse snow means?

Lol. That's better than last night's run.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was talking about the DC area. I am below climo for up here now anyways and that’s pretty astounding given the AO. 

how are you below normal. you got around 9 in Dec right? You dont live that far for me

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. 

At least we get the EPO tho right? 

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

[Chris78]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

Don't worry about February . We can't even get next week's stuff nailed down lol.

[WinterWxLuvr]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. 

At least we get the EPO tho right? 

Fine. Keep a love of the polar vortex over Hudson Bay, pop that se ridge and let’s roll with over running events.

I wish tomorrow we had a bit of southeast ridge.

[JakkelWx]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

At least we get the EPO tho right?

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. That's better than last night's run.

Eh, I wouldn't say exactly that. The probability tool is actually pretty useful here. With the 0z runs there was a fair bit more consensus with getting snowfall into our area, generally 30-50% of ensemble members in our general subforum area gave us 1" or more, compared to ~20-40% this run. Probably a big hitter or two skewing the mean here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Don't worry about February . We can't even get next week's stuff nailed down lol.

Well I mean...that SER flexing in February idea is a bit scary...and I know Isotherm is usually pretty good, right? I just don't want a scenario where we don't see a flake for two separate reasons (first not enough cold and then too much) and have that happen in February. Wouldn't that be game over?

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I mean...that SER flexing in February idea is a bit scary...and I know Isotherm is usually pretty good, right? I just don't want a scenario where we don't see a flake for two separate reasons (first not enough cold and then too much) and have that happen in February. Wouldn't that be game over?

I get it .That would suck and also require alot of bad luck

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Eh, I wouldn't say exactly that. The probability tool is actually pretty useful here. With the 0z runs there was a fair bit more consensus with getting snowfall into our area, generally 30-50% of ensemble members in our general subforum area gave us 1" or more, compared to ~20-40% this run. Probably a big hitter or two skewing the mean here. 

Gotcha . Just going off of the map you posted the snow mean looked a little better. ( in my yard). 

Thanks for the clarity. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

how are you below normal. you got around 9 in Dec right? You dont live that far for me

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years.  So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35".  By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date.  But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO.  Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.  

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t forget that nice 3-5” event around Jan 20 that year 

I was thinking about that 2 week period quite a bit leading in to this winter. maybe it's just a hunch or wishful thinking but it is on the table. Our good window really doesn't start until the 15th. This upcoming week still may workout but it looks like we got a bit of a head fake. When our official window gets here its look like well have 2-3 weeks to score. Hopefully there is a reload and we get extend into first 2 weeks of February. We know it has to break down but hopefully we max out on length of favorable indices. Whether or not we enter a 2-3  week stint of deep winter like in 2000 is the million dollar question.

For those too young to remember I'll give recap of how that period in January 2000 played out. Horrible 1st 2 weeks of January. Pattern changed on the 18th. Very cold cloudy day with a small clipper that dropped only a half inch of snow but snarled traffic around DC. Only virga from Baltimore northward. Then a nice quick moving system dropped 3-6 inches to kick start the run. The next day was very windy and cold. There was a potential storm on the 23rd but it failed and resulted in flurries. Then of course the 25th we all know about. The next storm was on the 30 th superbowl sunday. Forecast busted in a positive way for northemwest burbs. 4-8 inches fell and never changed over even though most forecast were for 1-3 and a change to a mix then rain. Stayed chilly after that storm for a few days with some snow showers then winter ended. I got 26 inches in Reisterstown all in a 10 day  stretch. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The ridge is a little west, more a WPO then an EPO...which is "ok" if we have a -NAO.  

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If you look close there's a handful of members that are delayed with development and either phase a bit later or get bypassed by the 1st ns energy and develope around 140-156 hours timeframe vs 120 hr time frame .  A couple big hits for esp nw .

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how.  The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work.  Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.  

[Cobalt]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how.  The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work.  Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.  

Seems like we're better off banking on the wave slowing rather than speeding up.. seems like models tend to slow down storms anywho. Wasn't that what happened with the Dec 16/17th storm, where the slowdown allowed the 50/50 low to ease to the east somewhat?

 

[GEOS5ftw]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I was thinking about that 2 week period quite a bit leading in to this winter. maybe it's just a hunch or wishful thinking but it is on the table. Our good window really doesn't start until the 15th. This upcoming week still may workout but it looks like we got a bit of a head fake. When our official window gets here its look like well have 2-3 weeks to score. Hopefully there is a reload and we get extend into first 2 weeks of February. We know it has to break down but hopefully we max out on length of favorable indices. Whether or not we enter a 2-3  week stint of deep winter like in 2000 is the million dollar question.

For those too young to remember I'll give recap of how that period in January 2000 played out. Horrible 1st 2 weeks of January. Pattern changed on the 18th. Very cold cloudy day with a small clipper that dropped only a half inch of snow but snarled traffic around DC. Only virga from Baltimore northward. Then a nice quick moving system dropped 3-6 inches to kick start the run. The next day was very windy and cold. There was a potential storm on the 23rd but it failed and resulted in flurries. Then of course the 25th we all know about. The next storm was on the 30 th superbowl sunday. Forecast busted in a positive way for northemwest burbs. 4-8 inches fell and never changed over even though most forecast were for 1-3 and a change to a mix then rain. Stayed chilly after that storm for a few days with some snow showers then winter ended. I got 26 inches in Reisterstown all in a 10 day  stretch. 

Nice recollection. That first system (Jan 20?) is overlooked because of what came after, but a very underrated storm IMO. It was a pure NS wave that dropped far enough south to work for us. Then it blew up into a huge bomb offshore (like 950mb) and hit Nova Scotia pretty hard, but missed NE. That's why it was so windy afterwards, some of the most impressive blowing and drifting I have seen in this area especially considering the storm total was only 3-6 as you mention. I wonder if the look being advertised day10+ could lead to this type of opportunity.

[LP08]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how.  The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work.  Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.  

The ICON is the only global that is doing this (yes i know the ICON sucks but just for visualization).

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

Looks like our usual around here. 7-10 days of true winter. That is my guess at the very least. It is becoming apparent we aren't scoring with the -AO/-NAO. Eventually that has to retreat and go neutral. It is during that period we will score. Likely during the 2nd half of Jan. 

The big question is do we regain the NAO/AO as some are saying the SWE states we will? Or do we lose the ATL in lieu of the EPO thumb ridge or rex block and not see the -AO/NAO return this winter.

That should be interesting moving into the latter part of this month and early Feb. Again, we will get our week to 10 days of winter as per usual after the 15th when the Atl relaxes imho. Just wondering where we head thereafter. 

[PivotPoint]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years.  So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35".  By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date.  But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO.  Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.  

Yea but not all -AOs are created the same. Even though it’s like multiple std dev negative the underlying cold is not what one would expect in an anomalous AO state. So it’s almost like who cares it’s negative. The AO is Luke warm to begin with this year

[stormtracker]

Imma say it again. H5 84 hour NAM.  Don't look at me like that.   What else have we got in this time of extreme desperation.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Imma say it again. H5 84 hour NAM.  Don't look at me like that.   What else have we got in this time of extreme desperation.  

doom scrolling...lots and lots of doomscrolling