January Long Range Disco Thread

[Ji]

once again an example that when the euro is own its in in delivering snow...its a 100% fail. As michnick used to say....we need a pattern reshuffle. This aint working

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Ok I'll say it.  The Euro is no good for next week.  Squashed and shredded.

Definitely more consistency across guidance and not in a good way. Not much phasing from the northern stream so they are shredders. Lots of time to change still with the complicated pattern.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

18-20th period looking good 

That’s been my “target” date for over a week. But I won’t deny I was hopeful we would get something before then. The pattern is good enough you would think we would luck into something sooner or later. But the next 7 days looks suppressive and then we need to wait for that NS wave around the 15 to clear and get the gradient south of us probably. Good news is there looks to finally be a gradient lol. So on the one hand things still are progressing well and the cold is coming and around the 20 looks like a great opportunity I’m still getting frustrated we can’t score something with the consistently decent dominant longwave pattern we’ve had since late November. This is bordering on ridiculous that we can’t even seem to sniff a 2-4” type thing in a sustained non hostile pattern. This had not been a shutout look (as bob would say) yet we have been shutout! 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

once again an example that when the euro is own its in in delivering snow...its a 100% fail. As michnick used to say....we need a pattern reshuffle. This aint working

Every model will likely fail when it’s on its own. A real confident snow signal would be when the majority of all guidance shows it over multiple runs. Grasping at outlier runs (even if it’s the euro) is usually a losing bet. 

[caviman2201]

17 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

So... we're no longer in an Ice Age?

[stormtracker]

We just can't win

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Every model will likely fail when it’s on its own. A real confident snow signal would be when the majority of all guidance shows it over multiple runs. Grasping at outlier runs (even if it’s the euro) is usually a losing bet. 

i guess im got used the old school when the euro had it 3 runs in a row---take it to the bank:(

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s been my “target” date for over a week. But I won’t deny I was hopeful we would get something before then. The pattern is good enough you would think we would luck into something sooner or later. But the next 7 days looks suppressive and then we need to wait for that NS wave around the 15 to clear and get the gradient south of us probably. Good news is there looks to finally be a gradient lol. So on the one hand things still are progressing well and the cold is coming and around the 20 looks like a great opportunity I’m still getting frustrated we can’t score something with the consistently decent dominant longwave pattern we’ve had since late November. This is bordering on ridiculous that we can’t even seem to sniff a 2-4” type thing in a sustained non hostile pattern. This had not been a shutout look (as bob would say) yet we have been shutout! 

Possibly going a solid month with barely a flake when the AO is around -2SD, even with a meh PAC, is pretty breathtaking. 

[Scraff]

Kinda feel like the GFS has been winning the entire time in an unfortunate way. Some of us just had our blind folds on (I know I did anyway). Ah well. The 15-20th window was always the real window anyway....I still hope. 

[caviman2201]

At least we still have February! Our prime snow climo month!

Right?

...

[Vice-Regent]

4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

So... we're no longer in an Ice Age?

We are in deep you know what ... but there is always a silver lining no more ice age's.

[Ji]

id rather have snow than super cold...but there is hardly any cold showing up in the long range....even in PSU;s window

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i guess im got used the old school when the euro had it 3 runs in a row---take it to the bank:(

That was when the euro ran once a day at 12z. So if the euro had a storm on 3 consecutive runs that means it held the look over 3 days. That’s the equivalent of 12 straight runs now that it runs every 6 hours. You considering that?

[aldie 22]

21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Bullseye of 9" of snow on the LA/MS border.  

In a Nina....umpossible

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

id rather have snow than super cold...but there is hardly any cold showing up in the long range....even in PSU;s window

Huge difference in our nearby source region. And LR 2m temps verbatim are the lolz

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Possibly going a solid month with barely a flake when the AO is around -2SD, even with a meh PAC, is pretty breathtaking. 

Loaded question but does your gut say this is just one of those luck things (it has happened before but not often) or possibly portends something more painful wrt a more hostile snow climo now v the past?  Of course a little if both can be true. 

[JakkelWx]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Possibly going a solid month with barely a flake when the AO is around -2SD, even with a meh PAC, is pretty breathtaking. 

This is quite possibly the biggest disaster I have ever seen. A whole month of that and I have not seen a single flake. The only snow we've had was clear snow and what good is that if you can't see it.

Edit: Not for long

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was when the euro ran once a day at 12z. So if the euro had a storm on 3 consecutive runs that means it held the look over 3 days. That’s the equivalent of 12 straight runs now that it runs every 6 hours. You considering that?

nope!

[CAPE]

I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO.

It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

id rather have snow than super cold...but there is hardly any cold showing up in the long range....even in PSU;s window

Don’t use 2m temps in the long range ensembles.  Because that still uses the older climo period and because warming will be most pronounced at the surface any outlier members that have a ridge will be a torch and skew the mean. 850 anomalies age a much better indicator at range. That said 12z gefs backed off on the extreme cold of the previous few runs. But it’s still cold. Maybe that’s better. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Loaded question but does your gut say this is just one of those luck things (it has happened before but not often) or possibly portends something more painful wrt a more hostile snow climo now v the past?  Of course a little if both can be true. 

Yeah I think it’s a bit of both. This is some bad luck, which hopefully will turn around in dramatic fashion. But we are definitely losing marginal events over the last few decades. We’re probably trading that for more frequent, if still pretty rare, KU-class events. The climatological rain/snow line is moving north. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO.

It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.

Good points. I still think we end up probably doing well this month. But the difference between bad/decent/great winters is how often we hit on marginal events. If we miss next week, that might be the 4-5th pretty good if imperfect looking setup since Dec 1 that we completely whiff on? That’s rough. 

[Ji]

replace the high with the low and we are in business for a major storm!

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO.

It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.

It’s possible that what happened in November basically doomed us through the first half of either. That was the worst possible pattern imaginable and robbed us of any cold build up on our side of the hemisphere 

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't think a lot of folks really grasp how much Pac puke has been hurled into Canada. That's one large factor in the failure to produce despite the -AO.

It is gonna change though in a pretty big way.

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. 

At least we get the EPO tho right? 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good points. I still think we end up probably doing well this month. But the difference between bad/decent/great winters is how often we hit on marginal events. If we miss next week, that might be the 4-5th pretty good if imperfect looking setup since Dec 1 that we completely whiff on? That’s rough. 

I get it. I am still in shutout mode here lol. I was looking at the Pac jet on the GEFS this morning, and early in the run, it's split and the northern component is still straight into Canada, with the southern part well to our south. That looks odd and not conducive to storms here, esp not cold ones. That changes in a major(and favorable) way by the end of the run.

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good points. I still think we end up probably doing well this month. But the difference between bad/decent/great winters is how often we hit on marginal events. If we miss next week, that might be the 4-5th pretty good if imperfect looking setup since Dec 1 that we completely whiff on? That’s rough. 

I might be going out on a limb here, but it seems like to combat the increase in temps, we need our PAC look to be substantially better than it used to. That's what made our rather frequent events in 13/14 and 14/15 work out pretty well. I mentioned this in the banter thread, but that necessity has to undoubtedly hurt us in Ninas, since for any high end WWA or WSW events (as pointed out by PSU) they require the favorable Atlantic to be our main lifeline to pull off those events. Yet if the pacific needs to be perfect to prevent a warm/wet and cold/dry regime, we're essentially dancing between both the PAC and Atlantic teleconnections. Like I said, I'm probably going out on a limb, but that's the main way I can see how most of our Ninos in the past decade have been near or above climo, while we've punted numerous good patterns in recent Ninas.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s possible that what happened in November basically doomed us through the first half of either. That was the worst possible pattern imaginable and robbed us of any cold build up on our side of the hemisphere 

then you got 9 inches before a week before FAll solstice even ended

[Ji]

sounds like we might get a week of winter this winter---hopefully it turns out as well as Jan 25-32nd in 2000

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

then you got 9 inches before a week before FAll solstice even ended

Can always thread a needle, and that was pretty marginal. You didn't have to go too far east find just another cold rain event.