Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 its the euro vs everyone else at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 typically Ninas have very dead Southern Jet and its also a very progressive flow....so when there is some kind of Southern Jet action.....its almost impossible to phase the streams which is why maybe in some Nina years...there is a southern storm that dosent hit the Mid Atlantic. But nobody living in the Southeast would ever wish for a La nina winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 sidenote: January has not felt that warm but somehow we are running 6 degrees above normal at IAD lol its the night time lows...so a bit deceptive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: its the euro vs everyone else at this point For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I honestly don’t want a good look beyond about 4 days. There is so much chaos right now in that ns that any look is gonna change drastically at that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: sidenote: January has not felt that warm but somehow we are running 6 degrees above normal at IAD lol Frequent 33F rain will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Gets shredded is more applicable look at the GFS h5 I posted above...the CMC looks exactly the same with the NS. Shred factor right on top of us. We need that whole flow to lift about 200 miles. The ridge is still centered too far south which is forcing the confluence right on top of us instead of a bit to our north. Nothing can amplify up the coast with that look. That's why I keep saying the next reload of the blocking centered more towards Baffin to Greenland looks promising. That is where we want it. This isn't actually a model fail, from long range the blocking was always shown centered a bit far south of our ideal spot but I think (and usually rightfully) we didnt worry about a slight detail like that from long range. But the guidance NAILED it and the -NAO ridge is a little too far south so suppression is a risk. Hopefully the guidance nails the next period of blocking equally well because it looks PERFECT after we had one period of AO blocking centered slightly too far north and one period centered slightly too far south...maybe we finally get just right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: sidenote: January has not felt that warm but somehow we are running 6 degrees above normal at IAD lol its the night time lows...so a bit deceptive The night-time lows are just incredible. A lot of above freezing nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, anotherman said: The night-time lows are just incredible. A lot of above freezing nights. yep--we have had alot of cloudy drizzly nights--not a way to trigger sub freezing nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 @Ji I am just as frustrated as you...but there is a STRONG signal across all major guidance where this is headed post Jan 15 (which go back weeks was ALWAYS the target for this pattern evolution). Once we get the TPV displaced into southeast Canada and ridging out west...I think we will have higher probability events with storms that actually amplify and have a healthy precip representation because there will be a true baroclinic boundary to work with. ALso...look at the last few runs of the long range GFS. Seeing NS systems digging all the way south of us like that is what we want to see at that range. Hold the line.... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Snowfall for this weekend. -_- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Snowfall for this weekend. -_- But 2018 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: . ALso...look at the last few runs of the long range GFS. Seeing NS systems digging all the way south of us like that is what we want to see at that range. Hold the line.... The GFS has issues we know, but many times it is very good at identifying large-scale features many days ahead , even 15 days ahead. I would feel confident about the prospects down the road and later January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 @Snowchaser btw having contours for every inch? Do you have OCD? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Happy 24th Anniversary! And it was a La Niña. I think we’re due! I want that big DT 96er. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: The GFS has issues we know, but many times it is very good at identifying large-scale features many days ahead , even 15 days ahead. I would feel confident about the prospects down the road and later January It’s the same look on the GEFS and EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s the same look on the GEFS and EPS 18-20th period looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18-20th period looking good on both or one of the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 57 minutes ago, Ji said: sidenote: January has not felt that warm but somehow we are running 6 degrees above normal at IAD lol its the night time lows...so a bit deceptive Overnight lows have been warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 in case anyone is wondering....we are indeed wasting something we have hardly seen. We had a +2 Dec and +6 Jan so far. @CAPE hasnt seen a flake. Just an embarrasement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Ji said: in case anyone is wondering....we are indeed wasting something we have hardly seen. We had a +2 Dec and +6 Jan so far. @CAPE hasnt seen a flake. Just an embarrasement The PNA has been positive too. I know people will point out this or that detail that wasn’t perfect but I agree with you. If DC can have a run of -AO +PNA like this and not get any appreciable snow thats pathetic and scary. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 WB 12Z GEFS. Not yet enthusiastic about the next two weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I have had my shovels out for a couple weeks just in case it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS. Not yet enthusiastic about the next two weeks. It's possible we get little to zero snowfall , it has been mentioned above if a negative 4 standard deviation Arctic oscillation cannot deliver snow to the DC area then just forget about it , come back next year. Or, after the comet hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: It's possible we get little to zero snowfall , it has been mentioned above if a negative 4 standard deviation Arctic oscillation cannot deliver snow to the DC area then just forget about it , come back next year. Or, after the comet hits. Okay, I'll bite.... what comet are you referring to? Color me intrigued/worried. And, damn it, we're going to have a solid winter this season fueled by a back loaded series of storms to get us close to normal totals... I'm feeling the law of averages are in our favor as we're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, IceCAPS said: Okay, I'll bite.... what comet are you referring to? Color me intrigued/worried. And, damn it, we're going to have a solid winter this season fueled by a back loaded series of storms to get us close to normal totals... I'm feeling the law of averages are in our favor as we're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ok I'll say it. The Euro is no good for next week. Squashed and shredded. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 This winter is horseshit. At least last winter was warm and I could open my windows. This winter kicks dirt in the face because it's relatively cold yet still no snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ok I'll say it. The Euro is no good for next week. Squashed and shredded. Bullseye of 9" of snow on the LA/MS border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Euro is bi polar projecting potential snow storm and then nothing every 12 hour cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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