Kmlwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 @psuhoffman - There are young people in here! Good lord. That is a beautiful map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range. This looks VERY supportive. perfect ridge placement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wes isn't enthused by the 12z OP euro. what was his concern if you don't mind sharing and don't say because it's rain at his house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You're looking at the wrong thing for "support" at that range. This looks VERY supportive. Looks like a texbook pattern that checks all the boxes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: what was his concern if you don't mind sharing 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: 7 days out Well it's 3 hours closer now 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: what was his concern if you don't mind sharing and don't say because it's rain at his house He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts. My gut does feel like in the end if this phases rain is a bigger risk then suppressed. The blocking is relaxed there and not nearly as much confluence. Luckily the ridge/trough axis looks really good though and the antecedent airmass is decent. Still not good for January but not the rotting dumpster fire it’s been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts. Always best to be cautious in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: My gut does feel like in the end if this phases rain is a bigger risk then suppressed. The blocking is relaxed there and not nearly as much confluence. Luckily the ridge/trough axis looks really good though and the antecedent airmass is decent. Still not good for January but not the rotting dumpster fire it’s been. i think he was more concerned that the ensembles didnt support was the euro was showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i think he was more concerned that the ensembles didnt support was the euro was showing Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome. That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means. Next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Less H5 suppression on 18z GFS for this Friday/Sat. Still a bit of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome. That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means. Next run! its also amazing how quickly he posted that on FB after the euro came out. And you guys think Im negative lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, peribonca said: Less H5 suppression on 18z GFS for this Friday/Sat. Still a bit of time! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Always best to be cautious in our region I follow Ji's North, South, East and West weather matrix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: its also amazing how quickly he posted that on FB after the euro came out. And you guys think Im negative lol He is wise and really knows the local climo, and seems immune to hype. I don't think that is being negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 80 hours out . Not yet brother . DC on south still in the game for now . We'll see where h5 is at tomorrow evening. If no positive changes by then ...its probably a southern /se Va event but still worth tracking. Nothing else in the medium range well inside 7 days . If it somehow ends up snowing here, I will throw a party around the firepit with weenies and unlimited 120s for all. Y'all will have to sleep in the woods tho. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 its not coming north.....there is a better chance it moves more south than more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Not reading good or bad, but it's funny. 18z GFS is vastly different at h5 than 12z. It's gonna be a shitter run, but at least we can still count on the fact that it's gonna be different in 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Ji said: its not coming north.....there is a better chance it moves more south than more north Wait- this isn't a great look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 GFS looks like the cmc. Says what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: GFS looks like the cmc. Says what storm? A veritable disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 after CWG was downplaying the upcoming pattern yesterday, they publish this hype piece today. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/05/polar-vortex-split-cold-snow/?fbclid=IwAR1x1uge6_tsCSmmTiBj3bHBA7iE9NrXKrcIEekxzUW_fpmQOXmYsTlK808 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: A veritable disaster. i lost zero inches of snow from the 12z gfs run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, losetoa6 said: Be careful. HH Para gets snow into Maryland Ok you got the deck, or the covered front porch even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 the 18z gfs has some of the nastiest looks at 500 to get us any kind of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 18z GFS says get ready for some boring ass weather for the next 8-9 days. Bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's. If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event. If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 18z GFS says get ready for some boring ass weather for the next 8-9 days. Bone dry. you cant draw up a worst 500mb to spark a storm. Absolutely horrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just look at the h5 changes north of us for the end of week. Huge. Get about 2 more changes of that magnitude and watch what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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