January Long Range Disco Thread

[LP08]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this one seems to have a better chance to bump north than the last one

H5 was an Improvement in my eyes.  The NS SW that had been suppressing everything was further out front and the SS SW was slower allowing heights to build again.  It just gets so messy with all the vorts flying around.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Even though I'm being half serious....my recollection that in Nina's IF there are any storms around us it typically happens in the South or on the shore. I don't see anything unusual with what some of the models are spitting out. Feel free to correct me, i'm not here to be right just expressing my thought on our current situation

your absolutely incorrect---we have had plenty of storms this winter including a 5 inch sleet/snow in Leesburg....most of our misses has been because of cold air

[mattie g]

18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My favorite part about SWFE events is the ferocity of the thump with a more organized system. No waste on virga, hot and heavy starts, massive aggregates, and typically pastes everything into a wintry scene. I know that you probably really enjoy those living well west of the fall line. Some of the best 12"+ storms are like that in your hood. 

It feels like every year there's discussion of SWFEs, but how often do they actually happen here? And would they actually happen in a Nina (even an atypical one)?

[Ji]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

H5 was an Improvement in my eyes.  The NS SW that had been suppressing everything was further out front and the SS SW was slower allowing heights to build again.  It just gets so messy with all the vorts flying around.

its actually way better than the 00z icon...

 

and its still the icon.....no panic yet...until the euro takes our 4-8 away again at 12z

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The general themes I see on the ens members, looking over them quickly, is either a more amped/phased solution with more precip (but warmer), or weak/sheared and south. The former may work out for NW areas for some frozen, but its not a good setup for those east of the fall line with not much cold available. The latter probably doesn't thrill anyone.

For my yard, I don't care much for the trends over the last several ensemble runs for next week, but some changes are likely. My focus is still towards mid month and esp beyond.

eta- I looked at both the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has more weaker/south solutions than the EPS

I tend to agree but didn't want to be the one to say it (especially given my location).  But the issue is both the lack of deep cold but also where the little cold is centered to our west combined with the suppressive flow to our northeast.  That combination favors one of 2 scenarios...lacking a good baroclinic boundary and facing a hostile flow the system shears out or gets squashed south or the system amplifies enough to increase ridging in front of it and comes up...but that favors a track inside what the coastal plain would need given the antecedent airmass.  Even up here, if the storm ends up phased or amplified enough to ride the coast rain is a threat imo.  But...I think your time will come...things are starting to come into focus (and its following the expected progression frankly) down the line.  Better threats for the coastal plain east of 95 will be ahead imo.  

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

@frd all of that is fine and interesting, but I’m over tracking wind changes and pattern changes, and ready to track a threat.  

I totally get it...and I agree.  I would much rather be discussing the details of a specific threat...but we need somewhere to discuss the broad pattern stuff also...and this is the place.  I do kind of agree maybe a split thread just for long range pattern discussion would be good and a thread for medium range day 3-6 type more specific storm threats...but we did try that once and people (intentionally IMO) mucked that up too.  

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

@CAPE @psuhoffman  Can you share your thoughts about this look in fantasy land. 

Is this a Mantiboa Mauler pattern ? 

That look is kind of extreme and rare.   Normally I would say it's not worth digging into an op at range but all the ensemble guidance supports that general idea.  The ensembles favor the block more towards Baffin (which might be even better for us) but the idea of a severely displaced northern stream running across the CONUS under the block is there across all guidance.  The thing about that look is the STJ would be pretty cut off coming in off the SW and normally that would be a problem (typical nina stuff) and we would need to get the NS to dig under us (normally a dead end) but that look is so extreme its actually possible we could get the pacific systems to dig down far enough south that it could be a west to east hybrid miller b type pattern which is a good one for us...provided the NS comes in far enough south.  The danger would be if that shifts north some...and the NS comes across at about our latitude instead of across to our south...it becomes a cold dry pure miller b look.  

On a more general pattern note, stuff is coming into clarity a bit better now.  There is a relax and that opens the door next week to a threat, but its low probability on the coastal plain due to a still crappy airmass.  But after the blocking relax all guidance suggests it does not break down but reloads centered more towards Baffin to Greenland next time.  This current round was actually centered too far south for us to be ideal for a big storm amplifying up the coast.  It is incredibly encouraging imo that even during the relaxation period the AO/NAO remain firmly negative and the next attempt by the TPV to consolidate is squashed like a bug and we tank again.  The look day 10-15 is frankly EXCELLENT across all guidance now.  That look with blocking centered from central Baffin to Greenland with a displaced TPV over Quebec is freaking awesome for us.  Its the rare combination of cold and promotes a good storm track.  If that is where this is heading I would be incredibly shocked if we don't get significant snow in the January 15-30 period.  

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel like we tried that before and it ended up just getting muddled and mixed up immediately anyway. 

I think one of the problems is we have become so strict and conservative about starting specific storm threads.  We used to have a thread for a storm once it came into medium range but we decided the threads were why our storm threats died so now no one wants to start a storm thread until its like right on top of us and so for days we get medium range specific storm discussion in the long range thread.  I am ok either way.  I can multi-task in this thread.  But imo we should either go back to starting specific threat threads once a discreet event enters medium range and forget this silly superstitious stuff...or if everyone is so convinced that will kill storms and its too annoying to start a new thread each time have a designated medium range thread to discuss stuff in the day 3-6 range.   

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

H5 was an Improvement in my eyes.  The NS SW that had been suppressing everything was further out front and the SS SW was slower allowing heights to build again.  It just gets so messy with all the vorts flying around.

ive seen worse situations 144 hours out lol

[blizzardmeiser]

31 minutes ago, Ji said:

HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year!

Going to be a March to remember! Storms and rumors of storms. 

[Ji]

Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Going to be a March to remember! Storms and rumors of storms. 

Feb will be rocking and then March will have a blizzard like 1993.

Feb 2010/March 1993 winter ending coming

[yoda]

12z GFS h5 is further north at 90 compared to 06z 96 in the Southern Plains

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sure doesn’t look good so far to me. Looks less deep and a perfectly timed sw to the north to suppress it. Early calls end up wrong but at least so far I’m not a fan

[clskinsfan]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Sure doesn’t look good so far to me. Looks less deep and a perfectly timed sw to the north to suppress it. Early calls end up wrong but at least so far I’m not a fan

Yep. Much weaker vort this run. 

[snowmagnet]

16 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Well @nj2va wanted upslope...he just got his fantasy HECS!  Would be epic.....

Bring that a little south, please!

[MillvilleWx]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

It feels like every year there's discussion of SWFEs, but how often do they actually happen here? And would they actually happen in a Nina (even an atypical one)?

Probably pretty rare in a Nina since you need that subtropical connection, but the wave amplitude so far has been anomalously in favor of digging s/w with lower lat push compared to normal. Hopefully it can keep the same pattern with more established cold. There were a fair amount of SWFE events in the front 6 years of the 2010's, but they've hit a snag recently. Probably just reverting to averages. Hopefully y'all can cash on one later this month or February. 

[Ji]

the closed ULL is holding on longer this run and isnt as far south...lets see what happens

[Ji]

lol where is the storm?

[EastCoast NPZ]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

your absolutely incorrect---we have had plenty of storms this winter including a 5 inch sleet/snow in Leesburg....most of our misses has been because of cold air

Absolutely correct.

Our misses won't occur until we have cold air.

[Ji]

time to cancel winter...-what a useless hobby.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The h5 changes on the gfs from run to run are comical. It’s like playing Yahtzee with the sw’s. Shake up the dice and roll it out.

[Dabuckeyes]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

time to cancel winter...-what a useless hobby.

5 minutes earlier:  "Feb will be rocking and then March will have a blizzard like 1993."

 

[yoda]

Pretty strong northern s/w at 150 moving towards us... likely going to move south of us

[JakkelWx]

Look how much cold air there is

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Pretty strong northern s/w at 150 moving towards us... likely going to move south of us

A decent pass lol

[Ji]

Look how much cold air there is

The worst -Ao nao ever


.

[Vice-Regent]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The h5 changes on the gfs from run to run are comical. It’s like playing Yahtzee with the sw’s. Shake up the dice and roll it out.

This model is the devil. Just unreal biases and no real-world usability.

[Ji]

A decent pass lol

We don’t even get partly cloudy


.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

The worst -Ao nao ever


.

15 Jan.  Need to get some cold here.  

[Dabuckeyes]

GGEM stays south.  

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

the closed ULL is holding on longer this run and isnt as far south...lets see what happens

 

This is the adjustment we need to get a big storm from that setup...not impossible at that range. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Dabuckeyes said:

GGEM stays south.  

Gets shredded is more applicable

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Bootleg NAO ridge not a true H5 block.

This is a silly semantics argument.  It is not a true closed rex block...but over the years we have started calling a -NAO ridge "blocking" and it does block the flow just not as much so as a true rex block.  This is a true -NAO ridge not bootleg, but no its not currently a closed rex block.  But the problem is not that it is the pacific side.  The "blocking" has already forced the last 2 shortwaves south of us but no one noticed because one was just too warm anyways despite a perfect track and rain and the other had no surface reflection and we got flurries.  The next 2/3 waves get forced south of us also but there is no baroclinic zone and so they also look to be weak sauce and don't amplify.  But the pattern is plenty blocked in the east...the pacific jet on the other hand needs to chillax.  

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!!

That miller b wave around the 15th has trended so far north its not even looking good for New ENgland now...there might be a trailing wave on the front associated with the wave way up in canada and MAYBE we get something minor out of that but the period around the 15th doesn't look good for a big storm here.  Better times after that imo.  

53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Even though I'm being half serious....my recollection that in Nina's IF there are any storms around us it typically happens in the South or on the shore. I don't see anything unusual with what some of the models are spitting out. Feel free to correct me, i'm not here to be right just expressing my thought on our current situation

That is more a problem when we get a cold dump during a progressive +NAO period in a nina, which is more common.  Blocking during a nina is very unusual but when we do get it that precip hole right over DC isnt as pronounced.  As Ji said our biggest problem so far has been a lack of cold.  We have had about 5 PERFECT track storms so far this cold season that ended up 40 degree rainstorms in DC because there was just no cold to work with.