January Long Range Disco Thread

[mappy]

Ava mentioned the model shift for early next week and that rain/snow was looking more likely. 

[frd]

5 hours ago, yoda said:

Wonder if EPS will be as nice as 12z was

 

Hmmm

 

 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The general themes I see on the ens members, looking over them quickly, is either a more amped/phased solution with more precip (but warmer), or weak/sheared and south. The former may work out for NW areas for some frozen, but its not a good setup for those east of the fall line with not much cold available. The latter probably doesn't thrill anyone.

For my yard, I don't care much for the trends over the last several ensemble runs for next week, but some changes are likely. My focus is still towards mid month and esp beyond.

eta- I looked at both the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has more weaker/south solutions than the EPS

 

Secondary  warming event seems possible, the recent upward swing in the AO may be short lived . 

Liking the possibilities later in the month as you mentioned for our areas. Hopefully,  either an increased baroclinic zone sets up further South with any manner of threats, over running, West to East storms under the block with arctic air in place,  and even a clipper like system.    

 

 

[frd]

 

 

Latest  10hPa 60 N   

Notice the secondary descent

 

 

[nj2va]

@frd all of that is fine and interesting, but I’m over tracking wind changes and pattern changes, and ready to track a threat.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

@frd all of that is fine and interesting, but I’m over tracking wind changes and pattern changes, and ready to track a threat.  

I have been thinking it might be better to  have 2 threads- one for tracking short/medium term threats( like inside 10 days) and one to discuss h5 patterns and larger scale phenomena/indices.

Just a thought.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

@frd all of that is fine and interesting, but I’m over tracking wind changes and pattern changes, and ready to track a threat.  

 

I believe there is a lot to be hopeful for despite the patience and wait that has been casted over the Eastern snow lovers. I just hope we here in the low lands get buried too. 

You are are in a great spot.  

Now the question really begs how long does the threat periods last. The stuff up above seems to indicate possible longer than many think. 

 

Hey while on the topic,  looks like almost a split at lower levels and situated over Hudson Bay.  Looking for cold, but also threats.  

 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I have been thinking it might be better to  have 2 threads- one for tracking short/medium term threats( like inside 10 days) and one to discuss h5 patterns and larger scale phenomena/indices.

Just a thought.

Didn't we have that last year or the year before?

Good idea. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have been thinking it might be better to  have 2 threads- one for tracking short/medium term threats( like inside 10 days) and one to discuss h5 patterns and larger scale phenomena/indices.

Just a thought.

I was thinking something along similar lines but you articulate it way better - I like your idea of some kind of atmospheric/H5/pattern and a separate S/MR threat thread.  When we had the December threat, this was getting a bit much in here between tracking H5 patterns and the actual threat IMO.

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

Didn't we have that last year or the year before?

Good idea. 

We used to in the past IIRC.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have been thinking it might be better to  have 2 threads- one for tracking short/medium term threats( like inside 10 days) and one to discuss h5 patterns and larger scale phenomena/indices.

Just a thought.

I'm okay with that. I know its just another thread to follow, but worst case the short term thread becomes a storm thread when a specific threat looks likely. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I'm okay with that. I know its just another thread to follow, but worst case the short term thread becomes a storm thread when a specific threat looks likely. 

Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.

Sounds good to me. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think we need a thread to discuss whether we should have a thread 

Sorry, couldn’t resist

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think we need a thread to discuss whether we should have a thread 

Sorry, couldn’t resist

It could be a "thread the needle" thread!! 

First rule of the Thread Club is to not mention what thread it is??

(Feel free to...uhhh...spin a good yarn, as it were!  *Ducks after lousy pun!*)

[frd]

 

@CAPE @psuhoffman  Can you share your thoughts about this look in fantasy land. 

Is this a Mantiboa Mauler pattern ? 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.

I feel like we tried that before and it ended up just getting muddled and mixed up immediately anyway. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

 

@CAPE @psuhoffman  Can you share your thoughts about this look in fantasy land. 

Is this a Mantiboa Mauler pattern ? 

My god. If we can get even a little snow from that we should just give up.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I would like to start this party with a massive Ohio Valley cutter into a deep cad, drop temps to ridiculously cold levels, moderate and have a huge KU and then go into the arctic tank with a clipper every few days. Go until March 15 and then quit.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Can we get a redux?

[Ralph Wiggum]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think we need a thread to discuss whether we should have a thread 

Sorry, couldn’t resist

Isn't that called the Panic Room?

[Weather Will]

WB EPS for midweek storm not very strong.  Just a few good hits.  ( the percentage in SW VA is for tomorrow’s system.)

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS for midweek storm not very strong.  Just a few good hits.  ( the percentage in SW VA is for tomorrow’s system.)

I like that. Those probability maps are always wrong anyway. So I’m gonna use that faulty logic to now proclaim snow is coming

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps mean for Day 5/6 . Not bad for a 48 hour mean . Plus it's still snowing on a handful of members at end of run hr  144.

 

Definitely a signal there.

When comparing the 00z eps to yesterdays eps there still seemed to be a decent amount of hits on there. Last night's individual members overall were less robust though. 

[Weather Will]

19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I like that. Those probability maps are always wrong anyway. So I’m gonna use that faulty logic to now proclaim snow is coming

We should start to see an increase through the next few days if midweek is going to work out.

[WxUSAF]

From what I’ve seen so far, i think the odds of SOME snow Tuesday have gone up. The odds of a big dog (10”+) have gone down. Flow is too fast and too positively tilted to ride up the coast. Still could be a widespread WSW level event though if things work out like the euro or gem showed last night. 

[MillvilleWx]

The middle to late month time frame is beginning to show a consistent look of either PV lobes dropping into the Great Lakes area, or just a dominant cross-polar flow regime with the 5H bridging nestled over western US/Canada by Day 10+. 

This is not the typical pattern to score big potential unless we get some kind of phasing to occur in the southern US, but this will be a door opening to high ratio fluff from progressive clippers that dive through the northern plains and head eastward. Snow pack will be increasing to the north and west, leading to less chances of modifying airmasses by the time it reaches Mid Atlantic longitude. This will also lay the grounds for a further south baroclinic alignment which could be fruitful for later in winter. Not a slam dunk obviously, but better than where it currently stands. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

From what I’ve seen so far, i think the odds of SOME snow Tuesday have gone up. The odds of a big dog (10”+) have gone down. Flow is too fast and too positively tilted to ride up the coast. Still could be a widespread WSW level event though if things work out like the euro or gem showed last night. 

i dont get this fast flow with blocking/-NAO. I thought everything was supposed to slow down--make things easier to phase with blocking

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The middle to late month time frame is beginning to show a consistent look of either PV lobes dropping into the Great Lakes area, or just a dominant cross-polar flow regime with the 5H bridging nestled over western US/Canada by Day 10+. 

This is not the typical pattern to score big potential unless we get some kind of phasing to occur in the southern US, but this will be a door opening to high ratio fluff from progressive clippers that dive through the northern plains and head eastward. Snow pack will be increasing to the north and west, leading to less chances of modifying airmasses by the time it reaches Mid Atlantic longitude. This will also lay the grounds for a further south baroclinic alignment which could be fruitful for later in winter. Not a slam dunk obviously, but better than where it currently stands. 

I think this ends up being a great cad pattern. Build a snowpack, plenty of cold, virtually impossible to scour it out on any storm that might cut

[frd]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The middle to late month time frame is beginning to show a consistent look of either PV lobes dropping into the Great Lakes area, or just a dominant cross-polar flow regime with the 5H bridging nestled over western US/Canada by Day 10+. 

This is not the typical pattern to score big potential unless we get some kind of phasing to occur in the southern US, but this will be a door opening to high ratio fluff from progressive clippers that dive through the northern plains and head eastward. Snow pack will be increasing to the north and west, leading to less chances of modifying airmasses by the time it reaches Mid Atlantic longitude. This will also lay the grounds for a further south baroclinic alignment which could be fruitful for later in winter. Not a slam dunk obviously, but better than where it currently stands. 

Is it safe to assume that beyond this period , when the block  relaxes the odds of a more significant all  snow event increases for the northern Mid-Atlantic region?