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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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17 minutes ago, Ji said:
28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
GFS is lol. It suppressed 3 straight waves south of us then finally amplifies a storm but cuts and rain. 

Lol and where is this heartbreaking Miller b you promised. Not seeing it on the models yet

Look at 12z euro. And it’s on a lot of ensembles. Gfs this run splits the trough and what would be the miller b wave rides way north then the southern feature rides up the apps. Still not a good setup for us. That northern feature is coming across way too far north. It could change. I’m not saying it’s locked. But I wouldn’t hold my breath and get bent if it doesn’t. 

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5 hours ago, yoda said:

Wonder if EPS will be as nice as 12z was

The general themes I see on the ens members, looking over them quickly, is either a more amped/phased solution with more precip (but warmer), or weak/sheared and south. The former may work out for NW areas for some frozen, but its not a good setup for those east of the fall line with not much cold available. The latter probably doesn't thrill anyone.

For my yard, I don't care much for the trends over the last several ensemble runs for next week, but some changes are likely. My focus is still towards mid month and esp beyond.

eta- I looked at both the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has more weaker/south solutions than the EPS

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