stormtracker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Storm/precip shield is more robust down south vs 18z, but next few panels has me worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Power house 1013 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Storm/precip shield is more robust down south vs 18z, but next few panels has me worried Ya.. Me too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Storm/precip shield is more robust down south vs 18z, but next few panels has me worried i think its going to hold enough to get us some blue man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Another screwjob. Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i think its going to hold enough to get us some blue man We just can’t have nice things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Light stuff makes it to dc at 138 but the storm just hits a wall and drifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Storm/precip shield is more robust down south vs 18z, but next few panels has me worried Just now, stormtracker said: Power house 1013 low. It’s healthier then it was. But it’s going to be close getting it amplified enough to be able to lift and survive the shred factory flow. But the setup is there! There are legit options. A stronger wave could just bully its way. Preferable get some NS phasing and NOT leave a piece behind that elongates the trough like the last couple runs and you get those monster euro solutions from yesterday. @Ji yes it evolved different at the surface but it was not really different systems. Same upper level energy just one version let the initial southern wave escape then redeveloped a new surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 H5 has slowly been trending towards a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Bluegh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 i mean we should be doing backflips if you compare it to the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I actually don’t think there’s a huge amount of change we’d need at H5 per PSU’s comments above. I liked 0z’s evolution upstairs way better than 18z FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 this one has a way better chance of getting precip up here than the Friday disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 normally you see a gulf low developing down here and start salivating 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 If it’s changes you want at h5 the gfs will deliver in 6 hours. Map won’t look remotely the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 its till mindblowing how this can miss us(friday storm) and not even be close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 everything actually trended south for Friday tonight as i said it would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 @WxUSAF if you look the h5 going back 72 hours and through the next 160 hours the flow is perfect with vort and vort tracking just under us. But nothing is amplifying at the surface. I’m starting to think part of the problem (other then just fast flow and crowded field) is the lack of healthy baroclinicity. There just isn’t much of a thermal gradient to fuel a surface system to amplify. The airmass is all blah everywhere. Do you think that’s part of the problem? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: its till mindblowing how this can miss us(friday storm) and not even be close lol Read my post to Wxusaf just now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 para starts us off with light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 para is horrendous. If that is the future GFS model....they should pitch in the trash can. Went from 3-6 inches to drizzle 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 ggem incoming though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 we lost the GFSs but gained the Canadien big time lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: we lost the GFSs but gained the Canadien big time lol GGEM looking like one of those nice EPS solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GFS is lol. It suppressed 3 straight waves south of us then finally amplifies a storm but cuts and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: para is horrendous. If that is the future GFS model....they should pitch in the trash can. Went from 3-6 inches to drizzle What did you do man???? And can’t you go to confession and fix this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF if you look the h5 going back 72 hours and through the next 160 hours the flow is perfect with vort and vort tracking just under us. But nothing is amplifying at the surface. I’m starting to think part of the problem (other then just fast flow and crowded field) is the lack of healthy baroclinicity. There just isn’t much of a thermal gradient to fuel a surface system to amplify. The airmass is all blah everywhere. Do you think that’s part of the problem? I agree with what you are saying! Temps day and night are remarkably stable not much of a variation. We do need a better baroclinic zone and temperature gradient to develop those all important coastal fronts that east coast storms love to feed off of the gradient and whatever warmer ocean temps may be near by but we also need the cold not this modified suedo that we currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: we lost the GFSs but gained the Canadien big time lol It’s very heavy obvious the models are having a very difficult time tracking the short waves and timing coming off of two separate streams and strengthening blocking with arctic air possibly waiting in the wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ggem is like a foot lol? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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