StormchaserChuck! Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I really like the -NAO+PNA setup around mid-January. I doubt we'll get a +PNA so far south in La Nina, but we'll see. This area seems to be leading the indexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I thought GFS was going to get flurries into DC based on H48 but then just shredded apart by the northern vort. Definitely came "norther" though. ETA: 500 also closes off this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I was going to say before, this is lol for no real Winter That arrow area usually precedes warm Jan 25-Feb 15 fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: I was going to say before, this is lol for no real Winter That arrow area usually precedes warm Jan 15-Feb 15 fwiw. Wut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Shut up Chuck 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wut 25th https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53528-winter-2020-21-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=5621946 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I thought GFS looked a bit like the Euro in that the vort gets sheared as it approaches. Still close enough for an OP at range IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Gfs just falls apart as it approaches us Monday night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para looking good at h5 at hr 102 Incoming at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looks good. Let's see if it falls apart in the next few frames lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Looks good. Let's see if it falls apart in the next few frames lol. Mod+ snow DC/south...light snow north of DC at 126. HH is on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 You could literally take 5 random images from the past two weeks from the gfs at h5 and they wouldn’t be any different from each other than the past 5 are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 haven't read every post here, but i'm not done tracking friday's system. it looks like it unravels a bit on approach, i'm assuming due to confluence/dry air, but that's a close call. january 2010 had a northern fringe system as well that surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: haven't read every post here, but i'm not done tracking friday's system. it looks like it unravels a bit on approach, i'm assuming due to confluence/dry air, but that's a close call. january 2010 had a northern fringe system as well that surprised. Jan 2010 was a much more powerful system But I agree. This could still spread snow into the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 All of the 18z models so far have made a decent move to bring the Friday system up the coast a little more. Well, except the ICON, but ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice 3-6" Definitely the best run weve had for Tuesday in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 ill take the para and call it a winter...... till jan 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: ill take the para and call it a winter...... till jan 15 Have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Have a map?https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs_para&p=snku_acc&rh=2021010618&fh=228&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 hours ago, frd said: Will the Miller B set up the third storm , for our area ? Thoughts ? The miller b looks to be sparked by a vignerons NS wave that’s fueled partially by the increasing thermal gradient as the true cold finally enters the N Amer playing field. But the wavelengths look wrong for us, it’s likely to amplify too far north. Forget the damn miller crap the issue is simple that wave won’t likely have the depth to get a storm under us. But as that wave amplified the cold will come behind. What happens after depends on a lot of factors. Currently the guidance favors the cold centering to our NW in a gradient pattern. That’s actually not a bad thing provided the blocking stays strong enough to keep the boundary to our south. We don’t want frigid into the Gulf of Mexico unless your goal is to walk across a frozen Potomac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Well @nj2va wanted upslope...he just got his fantasy HECS! Would be epic..... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Jan 2010 was a much more powerful system But I agree. This could still spread snow into the area. It wasn’t really more powerful from a wave amplitude POV. The surface low was deeper and it had a huge precip shield because it had a much colder airmass to its north which meant much more baroclinicity (FUEL!) and more lift in the WAA to the northeast of the low center. But from a ground truth POV you’re correct even if this took that same track it wouldn’t produce the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I'm ok with this... we are picking up our new puppy up your way in Hampstead the weekend of the 15th and I have been stressing over not being able to get there in case of snow. It can snow the 12th and after the 16th... During a storm it’s dicey but they get the roads good pretty fast after the snow stops up here imo. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It wasn’t really more powerful from a wave amplitude POV. The surface low was deeper and it had a huge precip shield because it had a much colder airmass to its north which meant much more baroclinicity (FUEL!) and more lift in the WAA to the northeast of the low center. But from a ground truth POV you’re correct even if this took that same track it wouldn’t produce the same result. If I remember correctly it was also a total west to east moving low. But I could be remembering incorrectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Wut 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Shut up Chuck He isn’t wrong that our results for having a +PNA-AO from Dec 1 on are pathetic. If the pattern does flip in Feb to a hostile one the fail will be that DC somehow failed during 2 months of a very decent to at times very good longwave pattern. No it wasn’t perfect but before people point out how this or that feature was slightly off from ideal...my retort is it shouldn’t take a freaking perfect pattern to snow. A lot of the warning events in our past were in good but slightly flawed patterns. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I remember correctly it was also a total west to east moving low. But I could be remembering incorrectly. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Well @nj2va wanted upslope...he just got his fantasy HECS! Would be epic..... !!!!! NSFW. Looks like I need to spend the month of January working from Deep Creek... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If I remember correctly it was also a total west to east moving low. But I could be remembering incorrectly. The surface low gained some latitude on the coast but the upper level low went w to e. It was snowing in parts of S VA while the low was still near New Orleans. You can get that kind of sprawling WAA snow shield when there is a true cold airmass on top and a better baroclinic zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He isn’t wrong that our results for having a +PNA-AO from Dec 1 on are pathetic. If the pattern does flip in Feb to a hostile one the fail will be that DC somehow failed during 2 months of a very decent to at times very good longwave pattern. No it wasn’t perfect but before people point out how this or that feature was slightly off from ideal...my retort is it shouldn’t take a freaking perfect pattern to snow. A lot of the warning events in our past were in good but slightly flawed patterns. Well it’s only Jan 5. There’s no telling how long a decent pattern will last. Wonder how we would feel if two months from now we had about 200% of normal snow and we’re about -7 in temp departure? Doubt anyone would say we wasted the winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well it’s only Jan 5. There’s no telling how long a decent pattern will last. Wonder how we would feel if two months from now we had about 200% of normal snow and we’re about -7 in temp departure? Doubt anyone would say we wasted the winter pattern. That wasn’t a prediction. I still bet this works out to some degree. But DC is below where I would have expected right now based on the dominant pattern Dec 1 to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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