jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: And then it torches the boundary layer. Sigh, I don't know what we have to do to get snow here anymore Cue Vice-Regent and/or Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yeah, that fell apart quick. Frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 lol.....you all get me at me for getting frustrated.....glad you are going through what i go through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, that fell apart quick. Frustrating 1030mb banana high over the top, mega confluence to the northeast, a low that tracks well to our south. And rain. Not sure what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 well, that sucks...maybe we get another swing coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol.....you all get me at me for getting frustrated.....glad you are going through what i go through Difference is we don't act like a petulant toddler with a full diaper. 1 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 1030mb banana high over the top, mega confluence to the northeast, a low that tracks well to our south. And rain. Not sure what to say. Yep. Plenty cold enough for Texas and Louisiana though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The trough splits the energy again and strings out...so the wave is deamplifying and shearing out as it approaches which won't work because the airmass still isnt good. We need a bomb...a weak wave won't end well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 1030mb banana high over the top, mega confluence to the northeast, a low that tracks well to our south. And rain. Not sure what to say. Anything in particular (mid-levels??) that trashes the BL thermals? Or is the antecedent airmass just so marginal or worse to begin with? ETA: Just saw @psuhoffman's comment above, I guess that pretty well explains it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The H5 map looks like it went on a coke bender 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The H5 map looks like it went on a coke bender Indeed, wut.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The trough splits the energy again and strings out...so the wave is deamplifying and shearing out as it approaches which won't work because the airmass still isnt good. We need a bomb...a weak wave won't end well. Yep. We go from this: to this: which obviously doesnt work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And then it torches the boundary layer. Sigh, I don't know what we have to do to get snow here anymore This next wave is still (frustratingly) coming before we really have any true cold to play with. So a weak shearing out wave is not going to work. We need the system to be amplifying on approach not washing out. It's going well through like 120 and then a combination of things go wrong imo. The flow is a little too suppressive. I know that sounds crazy when its so warm but the flow can't totally fix the lack of cold around. And the system splits and leaves a piece behind (probably in response to the shred factor its crashing into) and in response the wave starts to weaken and shear out. The weak POS wave left when it gets to us won't do us any good. We need an amplifying upper low passing just to our south OR NS phasing to infuse colder air for this to really work (like the last 2 euro runs) a weak all southern wave wont cut it when the antecedent airmass is still crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The trough splits the energy again and strings out...so the wave is deamplifying and shearing out as it approaches which won't work because the airmass still isnt good. We need a bomb...a weak wave won't end well. Yeah, I see it deamplify as it tries to climb toward that shred zone over New England. But with the 850 and 925mb lows passing to our south, I don't quite get how quickly it just nukes the airmass. All in all, a really good 12z suite pending the EPS. With so many shortwaves, I wouldn't expect anything approaching consistency until at least Friday or Saturday. We're definitely in the game though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Now my thing is...if we are headed into the extreme cold...I have to wonder if we have until the week of the 20th to get any precip before the cold gets too suppressive (after which I guess we'd have to wait for another relaxation?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I see it deamplify as it tries to climb toward that shred zone over New England. But with the 850 and 925mb lows passing to our south, I don't quite get how quickly it just nukes the airmass. All in all, a really good 12z suite pending the EPS. With so many shortwaves, I wouldn't expect anything approaching consistency until at least Friday or Saturday. We're definitely in the game though. Agree...I am totally fine with where things are right now. But I also share your (and others) frustration wrt the the result we just looked at...and it seems to be a theme we are seeing a little too often in recent years. All those flaws I pointed out are real but imo they are a better excuse for why it wasnt a big storm...not a good excuse for why it was a 37 degree all rain event. It didn't used to take a freaking absolutely PERFECT setup in every way just to get some snow around DC. Lately it seems unless its absolutely perfect in every little way its not happening. Its either HECS or nada lately. There is one obvious elephant in the room that could be the cause of some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 hours ago, Chris78 said: GFS at H5 Is trying for next Monday/Tuesday. I'm sure somehow that vort in S Central Canada will muck things up for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 We're gonna get Miller B'd at the end of the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Not exactly looking great beyond Tuesday's system either. The whole continent looks above Normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Not exactly looking great beyond Tuesday's system either. The whole continent looks above Normal! The cold comes in behind the northern stream miller b type system around the 15th. That is VERY likely to go to our north...then the cold hammer comes down behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 At least we get to watch that miller b blizzard New England at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The cold comes in behind the northern stream miller b type system around the 15th. That is VERY likely to go to our north...then the cold hammer comes down behind it. We can hope... It seems that way, and I want to believe, but man it seems hard to get things right when the time approaches. I am hoping for better trends for next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 hour ago, IceCAPS said: Mother of God! Talk about too much of a good thing! If I'm reading this right, I would think suppression would be the key word of the week here... cold as hell and bone dry. Of course, we do need cold for snow but this seems to be overdoing it a tad. I sure do hope I'm wrong or that this output is overdone, just a tad. :-) Clipper pattern then overrunning SWFE as the NAO retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. 5 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: We can hope... It seems that way, and I want to believe, but man it seems hard to get things right when the time approaches. I am hoping for better trends for next week.. We need the cold. It's barely been below freezing here it seems. A cold day this winter has been like a high of 44 and a low of 33. I'm not expecting much, if anything, until we get real cold on this side of the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. Could be setting up an epic RIC-PHL snow hole if we don't get next Tuesday between the southern storms and that Miller B. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. But there will be the one run...JUST ONE RUN...that will show a MECS and the usual suspects will be drawn in. Its like hypnotism once it shows digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Clipper pattern then overrunning SWFE as the NAO retreats. I personally would have preferred the N PAC trough back off some but not totally leave the scene. But everyone wanted some huge EPO ridge to get arctic air into the pattern. And it looks like they will get it. There is a trade off though. That is not as good a HECS look. It opens the door to cold/dry. It also could lead to enough SE ridge that anything that phases and bombs could cut west of us. I want a BIG storm so I would have preferred the other look. But if you just want some cold and snow this is probably a better look. It just depends what your preference is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Even the clipper is rain. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just getting this out of the way...there has been a VERY strong signal for a NS miller b system around the 15/16th across all guidance for days now...and its only getting stronger. That storm is going to miss us. Its going to screw us over. And its going to likely dump tons of snow on the normal places to our north...and resign yourself to that now so we dont have 20 pages of woe as me posts when it happens. That is NOT our storm...if by some miracle the blocking forces the NS to dig enough great and then we can enjoy it but just get over the idea now so it doesn't torture you for the next 10 days. Our legit threats are the period before that and after it. Will the Miller B set up the third storm , for our area ? Thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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