January Long Range Disco Thread

[Ji]

Seems like winter ended last night

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Seems like winter ended last night

It ended back in Dec when my 1" of slop got washed away by 3" of rain.

[Ji]

Winter is 45 days old and we have had one day of snow

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[psuhoffman]

Gefs and eps are similar wrt h5 progression but the eps is simply more suppressive under the block next week so the west to east boundary storms ride is further south which is better for us.  Not shocked the euro op caved to gfs progression wrt the northern stream though since the eps always favored that progression. It never had much support. The split can still work (as we saw on last nights runs) if the block asserts itself enough.  

[anotherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gefs and eps are similar wrt h5 progression but the eps is simply more suppressive under the block next week so the west to east boundary storms ride is further south which is better for us.  Not shocked the euro op caved to gfs progression wrt the northern stream though since the eps always favored that progression. It never had much support. The split can still work (as we saw on last nights runs) if the block asserts itself enough.  

How does it feel to be the board therapist?

[MD Snow]

A couple thoughts on the upcoming pattern: 

1. I wouldn't be surprised if areas north and west of 95 see at least some snow tv on Saturday and on Monday with the clipper. 

2. At this point, it appears that our threat at the  end of next week will be running the gradient. The question becomes will we be on the snowy side or the rainy side of that gradient. 

3. After that it's up in the air given it's still 10 days out. I'm not counting on anything. However, it would appear, based on ens guidance,  that the SE ridge retrogates to the SW, setting up our best look yet. Will that happen? Sure would be nice. Let's see if that look moves up in time or if the SE ridge decides to stick around.  

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs and eps are similar wrt h5 progression but the eps is simply more suppressive under the block next week so the west to east boundary storms ride is further south which is better for us.  Not shocked the euro op caved to gfs progression wrt the northern stream though since the eps always favored that progression. It never had much support. The split can still work (as we saw on last nights runs) if the block asserts itself enough.  

Exactly. The important feature(s) to watch are the vortices rotating around under the block. The timing and strength will be critical because with a -PNA there will be a SE ridge to contend with. The interplay between the 50-50 vortex and the SER will largely determine where the thermal boundary sets up.

[clskinsfan]

Took the week off from looking at models because it was clear we had no chance for at least that long. The threat next weekend looks pretty realistic to me. Not a complicated setup at all. All we need is the boundary to make it through before the precip arrives.

[Dabuckeyes]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Winter is 45 days old and we have had one day of snow

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Wrong thread....again.

[Weather Will]

WB Day 6 EPS....use your imagination on where the bowling ball goes until 12Z comes out.

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looked to me the NAO tries to link up with the SER which isn't crazy in this progression given the PAC. Remember, the PAC is running the show here essentially and if the ridge in the central PAC backs and pumps enough, then the SER naturally has a response to flex. Couple that with the retrograding NAO that attempts to link up and the pattern is teetering precariously on caving in on itself. Not saying this is right, but is certainly a viable solution given the progression in the PAC. You have been spot on discussion of the progression in the NAO, but we should be taking notes in recent times on how the PAC is dictating the conus pattern Moreso in recent years and what may have been gold just a few years ago has changed quite a bit. Again, not saying this is correct, but just something to consider.

I didn't say its not possible...but one of the reasons it resulted in that was that the NAO block retrograded so far SW that it blocked the western trough from "sliding under" and progressing east...so it dug in and pumped the heights even more...add in that the high latitude ridge was so far south...in southern Canada...and a link up was natural.  Yes that could happen...and would happen if the block really does retrograde to south of Hudson Bay...but I find that a little extreme.  It's more likely the block doesn't retrograde that far SW, that is extremely rare.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB Day 6 EPS....use your imagination on where the bowling ball goes until 12Z comes out.

If that didn’t produce a storm I’d be without words.

[psuhoffman]

Just for fun...the #1 day 11 CPC analog is mid January 1966, the #2 is late January 1979.  Both dates immediately proceeded 2 of our best snow blitzes (until 2010 of course) in history.  Of course some of the other dates in the analog set are not as friendly...but almost all produced at least SOME snow.  But the top 2 certainly shows there is big upside potential to this look.  

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

How does it feel to be the board therapist?

I mean this sub is in the midst of their worst 1/4/ and If things don’t change soon 5 year stretch in history!!!  We waited literally 10 years for a -AO winter and when we finally get one DC has now totally wasted the first 6 weeks of it!  So I don’t blame anyone for the current attitude. The frustration is kinda understandable. I’m just trying to soldier on and do my thing. 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just for fun...the #1 day 11 CPC analog is mid January 1966, the #2 is late January 1979.  Both dates immediately proceeded 2 of our best snow blitzes (until 2010 of course) in history.  Of course some of the other dates in the analog set are not as friendly...but almost all produced at least SOME snow.  But the top 2 certainly shows there is big upside potential to this look.  

 

Based purely off of the retrogression in NA combined with movements up top it appears a carving out from the SSWE pushes  colder air our way,  and very importantly the baroclinic boundary in the process,  and may even amplify and increase the tendency for East coast storm genesis. 

When look at the loops it appears the highest probabilities for this to occur is from Jan 24 th to Jan 29  th. 

A cool new tool by the way from Simon 

 

     

 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I mean this sub is in the midst of their worst 1/4/ and If things don’t change soon 5 year stretch in history!!!  We waited literally 10 years for a -AO winter and when we finally get one DC has now totally wasted the first 6 weeks of it!  So I don’t blame anyone for the current attitude. The frustration is kinda understandable. I’m just trying to soldier on and do my thing. 

 

Some indications the NAM state may be changing towards early February.

Granted,  the surface reflection of the SSWE are just now progressing as HM mentioned. 

 

 

 

[SnowDreamer]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the Eps mean . I think that's the control^

 

It is. To anybody who doesn’t know (me a few weeks ago), there’s a helpful little identifier after the ECMWF Ens tag. 
 

[M]=Mean

[C]=Control

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Here's the Eps mean . I think that's the control^

Talk about wall to wall confluence.. Batman   Instead of just confluence to the ne ...we got it stretching all the way to the west coast all but lol. 

 

I’m no bowling expert....except on the Wii, but that look would seem to imply that ball is going to hook a bit north then straight down the alley east towards us. Am I right?

[frd]

 

I imagine this is good to know in a long term thread.

The effects of the SSWE can result in both record cold and record warmth as well as Amy mentions.  

Example Spain and the heat in Turkey. 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

68 pages that has produced nothing. Somebody start the new thread which would be Jan/Feb Long Range Discussion. 
 

Please, somebody. We need to exorcise this demon.

[BristowWx]

 

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

I’m no bowling expert....except on the Wii, but that look would seem to imply that ball is going to hook a bit north then straight down the alley east towards us. Am I right?

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

[LP08]

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

[frd]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

 

Looking like both the storm on the 22 nd and the 25 th are rain makers . Heights up in the SE US.  More of the same  

This sucks !  

[Huffwx]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

That's the way the GFS seems to be playing it.  Of course its in the 40s/50s with rain delivering the 7-10 split.  but yes its coming straight at us. 

That flat ridge in the GOM isn't helping anyone. 

[Ji]

Just now, LP08 said:

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

were always on the wrong side of everything

[LP08]

The ridge off the west coast through Alaska is too far west.  Trough dumps in the west and we fight the SE ridge even with the favorable NAO and 50/50 low.  

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Looking like both the storm on the 22 nd and the 25 th are rain makers . Heights up in the SE US.  More of the same  

This sucks !  

the storm on the 29th will be ours. If not..feb 3

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Gfs op seems to think that we will be on the wrong side of the gradient through day 10.

if its right at least we don't have to worry we are so close...its not even close..you could drive 100 miles north and still be rain under that look.  Interesting developments today so far. 

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

The ridge off the west coast through Alaska is too far west.  Trough dumps in the west and we fight the SE ridge even with the favorable NAO and 50/50 low.  

Too much -PNA I guess.

[Ji]

our only hope is the models dont really see this stuff clearly until 120-144 hours out. Then it starts looking more favorable. The PD storm in 03 was actually mainly a rain event on the models for a while