Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 1:18 AM, CAPE said: Gotta like the chances with the persistence up top, despite the Pac doing its best to eff it all up. Expand Now if you or @psuhoffmanwouldn't mind, could you explain the concept of the "fast pac", and what we need to, I guess...slow it down? And the blocking regime that looks to continue...how does that interact with the pac to make things more favorable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Gfs already doing what it was doing last few runs different from the euro...splitting the western trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Euro Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Quick question: can anyone actually remember the last sustained good North Pacific pattern? So far this year it has been the poop on our shoe. It was a raging fire last year and also the year before that. I know the first weak of January 2018 was very cold here so I am presuming we had a good Pacific then, but can't remember anything else since 2013 - 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 That split is a problem. The energy in the SW gets stuck and waits and the front runner that comes across Canada wrecks the flow in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:22 AM, psuhoffman said: That split is a problem. The energy in the SW gets stuck and waits and the front runner that comes across Canada wrecks the flow in front. Expand Yup. I hope the GFS is wrong. Let's see how the Euro changes tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:15 AM, Maestrobjwa said: what we need to, I guess...slow it down Expand Several options 1. Slightly reduce solar output. 2. Slightly increase the earth's orbital distance. 3. Cause the collapse of industrial civilization and wait a few centuries. Seriously, there are smart people who feel that the consistently fast Pac jet is a consequence of the "elephant in the room which shall not be discussed in this thread". Which should make your blood run cold (or hot) because it might mean that we will be stuck with it for the foreseeable future. Furthermore it preferentially suck in North America because it causes all the cold air to stick to Eurasia and floods us with Pac puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Block is exerting a lot more pressure this run. Might be a better solution despite split but it’s gonna be close. Cold press coming but that NS feature wrecked the airmass in front first. Will have to get in just in time if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:22 AM, psuhoffman said: That split is a problem. The energy in the SW gets stuck and waits and the front runner that comes across Canada wrecks the flow in front. Expand Wait I thought it was a good thing. Jeez I can't keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:27 AM, psuhoffman said: Block is exerting a lot more pressure this run. Might be a better solution despite split but it’s gonna be close. Cold press coming but that NS feature wrecked the airmass in front first. Will have to get in just in time if it works. Expand Ha, was coming to say the same thing. We just need the cold press to get going quicker. That Nrn Vort irritates my life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Nah, not gonna do it this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Maybe....a hit? It’s a full day and a half later than the euro but the GFS is close to getting it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:28 AM, stormtracker said: Ha, was coming to say the same thing. We just need the cold press to get going quicker. That Nrn Vort irritates my life. Expand They always do (unless it's to phase with a southern vort of course! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:30 AM, LP08 said: Maybe....a hit? It’s a full day and a half later than the euro but the GFS is close to getting it done. Expand If anything, won’t be all rain verbatim at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:33 AM, nj2va said: If anything, won’t be all rain verbatim at least. Expand Not that it matters much. Just happy to see a colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Gfs is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:30 AM, stormtracker said: Nah, not gonna do it this run Expand It’s soooo close. Not too far north of DC stays all snow. Big jump the right direction. Man get that NS POS out of the way and this was a DC snowstorm. But it’s at a range where this was good enough. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:30 AM, stormtracker said: Nah, not gonna do it this runIts back to 10 days smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Yeah GooFuS!! Get my next weekend digital blues. @Ji ?? eta: good enough for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:26 AM, stormtracker said: Yup. I hope the GFS is wrong. Let's see how the Euro changes tonight.When is the euro ever right when it tries to be dr yes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:34 AM, LP08 said: Not that it matters much. Just happy to see a colder solution. Expand Super close to all snow. Happy to see a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:19 AM, psuhoffman said: Euro Gfs Didn't that use to be the euro bias,? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:34 AM, Ji said: Gfs is awful Expand You must have taught it everything you know! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Para GFS does the same split that big brother GFS does, meanwhile the ICON has a progression similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:36 AM, Ji said: On 1/14/2021 at 4:19 AM, psuhoffman said: Euro Gfs Expand Didn't that use to be the euro bias,? Expand Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 @Ji 2 ways to look at this... 1. Models are all over which does decrease confidence in a specific solution. Not that there should be any at this range. 2. The gfs and euro take radically different progressions and both end up snowing on you. That is indicative of the potential this blocking regime creates. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Here comes the energy for the “big” threat. It’s slower this run. But fits the progression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 On 1/14/2021 at 4:56 AM, psuhoffman said: That energy is digging west in response to the pac ridge and it’s going to try to cut...but look at the blocking and confluence in its way and there is a lot of cold in front. Let’s see how this plays out... The high should hold right? Thats why we pay big bucks for blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 CMC ends up looking like GFS for next Thursday/Fri but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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