JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Still lightyears better than last years dumpster fire IMO. Not until I have at least an inch of snow OTG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Not until I have at least an inch of snow OTG There is nothing to show for it. The usual suspects get theirs as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Not until I have at least an inch of snow OTG I get it, but In fairness, last year was weeks and weeks of well above normal temps, and not a hint of snow (real or digital), and it didn't feel remotely close to normal winter. This year (while some still wait) has had snow in the MA to NE, and its still early in the game. Not sure how that's not a +. Just because someone's backyard is brown (like mine has been for weeks), doesn't make it a horrid winter. I've seen several periods where some/many from this forum were celebrating snow this year. That's great, and more likely to come. We all literally and figuratively need to just chill out a bit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: There is nothing to show for it. The usual suspects get theirs as usual. Isn't Cape May in NJ? Why do you come here to this forum to be a doomer? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 GFS has a low in TN next Friday with rain all the way to Buffalo. Just no cold air which continues to be a theme this winter as that could be a great WAA event... eventually turns into a hybrid miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: GFS has a low in TN next Friday with rain all the way to Buffalo. Just no cold air which continues to be a theme this winter as that could be a great WAA event as it eventually turns into a hybrid miller b. It's getting tedious waiting for any colder air to arrive. Looks like after that storm there is some dropping behind it into the Midwest, but again that's another 10 day wait to see if its actually true. I'm still optimistic but we need to see it get under 10 days before we believe any colder air is truly coming. Wait and See! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: It's getting tedious waiting for any colder air to arrive. Looks like after that storm there is some dropping behind it into the Midwest, but again that's another 10 day wait to see if its actually true. I'm still optimistic but we need to see it get under 10 days before we believe any colder air is truly coming. Wait and See! Yup, I hear you on that. I used to want to threats get inside 5 days....at this point, I'd be happy to see it get within 10. Still think we'll score but isn't this hobby fun?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: I get it, but In fairness, last year was weeks and weeks of well above normal temps, and not a hint of snow (real or digital), and it didn't feel remotely close to normal winter. BWI and DCA were both above average with December temps and are currently running 4-5 degrees above for January so far (which will likely go higher by the end of the week). There hasn't been a below-average day since December 27. Yes, it could turn around, but so far it feels awfully similar to last year in the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: It's getting tedious waiting for any colder air to arrive. Looks like after that storm there is some dropping behind it into the Midwest, but again that's another 10 day wait to see if its actually true. I'm still optimistic but we need to see it get under 10 days before we believe any colder air is truly coming. Wait and See! Cuts to Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Cuts to Chicago Imagine where it could go if we didn't have the biggest block in a decade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Cuts to Chicago If you are putting so much faith in an Op run at 264hrs....there's really not much one can do for you. Kidding aside you and i both know that's not happening, and will look notably different by the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: BWI and DCA were both above average with December temps and are currently running 4-5 degrees above for January so far (which will likely go higher by the end of the week). There hasn't been a below-average day since December 27. Yes, it could turn around, but so far it feels awfully similar to last year in the end result. its 3-5 above average "up" here as well. I'd bet a dollar to a dime last years departures were 2x+ at same timeframe w/ no end in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If you are putting so much faith in an Op run at 264hrs....there's really not much one can do for you. Kidding aside you and i both know that's not happening, and will look notably different by the weekend. Yes, agree we both know thats not how it'll turn out at the surface with a verbatim 500 like that but comical to see the ways we fail on the OP GFS. Para GFS looking way more realistic in its surface depiction IMO. 1054 H pressing down preventing it from cutting (eta: or maybe not lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 2 hours ago, IronTy said: My weatherbug app is showing a snow threat next Thurs/Fri. It's been more accurate than any of the actual models so there's that... I wouldn't count my chickens until we hear what Sue Palka has to say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: I wouldn't count my chickens until we hear what Sue Palka has to say Lol weatherbug says 80% chance of snow, partly cloudy and a high of 44F for next Friday. One of those is bound to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 GFS is just a little cold at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: GFS is just a little cold at the end of its run. Outside of Minnesota that’s not even impressive for morning lows. Even in Minnesota rose temps are probably 30 degrees above record lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Keep getting enough lows trying to develop in the Ark/Missouri region with this blocking and one of them is gonna hammer us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Finally models showing cold and a 50/50 low in the long range. The stupid ridge over the gulf coast is our issue now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Finally models showing cold and a 50/50 low in the long range. The stupid ridge over the gulf coast is our issue now. Instead of a broad spread out w-e trough under the epo/NAO ridge (which is typically what you would expect) the guidance tries to split the trough and pump a ridge in between. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Outside of Minnesota that’s not even impressive for morning lows. Even in Minnesota rose temps are probably 30 degrees above record lows. I lived in Winnipeg during the winter of 76-77. I remember the tv forecaster saying “it’s going to be a beautiful day today, a great day to take the kids to the zoo. The high today will be -15 F ....”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Keep getting enough lows trying to develop in the Ark/Missouri region with this blocking and one of them is gonna hammer us. Everyone loves the idea of a big blocking pattern, but then they don't want to be patient. It is a favorable pattern but often can be frustrating. There was a long wait for another winter storm after the December event in 2009. Imagine if that had missed. There would have been nothing until almost Feb. And that was a moderate Nino. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Everyone loves the idea of a big blocking pattern, but then they don't want to be patient. It is a favorable pattern but often can be frustrating. There was a long wait for another winter storm after the December event in 2009. Imagine if that had missed. There would have been nothing until almost Feb. And that was a moderate Nino. What pattern isn’t frustrating lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: What pattern isn’t frustrating lol True, but no other pattern brings the high expectations of one that features a persistent -AO/NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Instead of a broad spread out w-e trough under the epo/NAO ridge (which is typically what you would expect) the guidance tries to split the trough and pump a ridge in between. Ugh Somehow despite the ridging being extra prevalent through hrs 200-280, the 12z GEFS actually looks on par if not a tiny bit better at hr 288 when compared to 6z. Curious as to if a few outliers are pumping up that ridge during that day 10 time. I'd imagine they're doing what the op GFS did from 18z through 6z and are just losing the -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Somehow despite the ridging being extra prevalent through hrs 200-280, it actually looks on par if not a tiny bit better at hr 288 when compared to 6z. Curious as to if a few outliers are pumping up that ridge during that day 10 time. I'd imagine they're doing what the op GFS did from 18z through 6z and are just losing the -EPO? 12z Gfs had the epo ridge and did the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yes, agree we both know thats not how it'll turn out at the surface with a verbatim 500 like that but comical to see the ways we fail on the OP GFS. Para GFS looking way more realistic in its surface depiction IMO. 1054 H pressing down preventing it from cutting (eta: or maybe not lol) and while the weenie in us is all in for the Para to be on point (just watched the loop and yeah...that'd make for a memorable stretch of winter for all of us). Its an Op run. Gut says ol man GFS is about to belly under in the coming days as tellies suggest it should. Yeah we've been fooled before, but we've got multiple indicies in our favor....not just 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Gefs is beyond frustrating through day 13. The means look good wrt precip/temps but nada on the snow maps. Looking into individual members reveals why. The temps are skewed colder by cold dry members. The wet members are warm. It’s either suppressed members or cutters. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 Less than 1.5” snow mean on the GEFS through the next 13 days doesn’t inspire much confidence for winter weather. Ha, ninja’d by PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2021 Share Posted January 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and while the weenie in us is all in for the Para to be on point (just watched the loop and yeah...that'd make for a memorable stretch of winter for all of us). Its an Op run. Gut says ol man GFS is about to belly under in the coming days as tellies suggest it should. Yeah we've been fooled before, but we've got multiple indicies in our favor....not just 1. What para are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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