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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS has a big signal for that range around Jan 25-26. So does the gefs. West to east type wave as blocking relaxes some.  Way too far out but it’s there. Remarkably similar on both ensembles 

The big ones are sniffed out early but damn not this early. We must be getting 4 feet of snow on the 25th.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have a severe block in march...i forgot the year...it was pretty insane but we were very dry. March 2004 maybe?

2005 you are thinking of 

7D9C4B4B-E1F2-42A8-9843-3F9A1E423EC9.png.fb22495ad89527726b62db527168eff3.png
but...we did get 2 snowstorms from that pattern in late February and early March. Both were 3-6” type deals. It was mostly dry after and I would agree it underperformed potential but it wasn’t a shutout and it was March which always is more challenging. We’re talking prime climo here! 

ETA; that block was more east based also

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2 hours ago, frd said:

 

Rain at 330 hours GFS  and 240 GEM. Yea I know OP at range , but we need a real game changer. Same thing last 24 months, cutter, coastal hugger or inland runner. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

 

The para has that 240 time frame as well as the euro showing a low somewhere in the vicinity of the Tennessee valley and the gulf. So, that’s a good sign considering gfs-reg and gem have a signal there too

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS has a big signal for that range around Jan 25-26. So does the gefs. West to east type wave as blocking relaxes some.  Way too far out but it’s there. Remarkably similar on both ensembles 

Yea, I noticed that. I think the ensemble guidance is starting to converge on the blocking and building heights out west. I’m starting to be intrigued now. I never bought this early pattern development with the PAC look at western pac ridge. Now signs of epo ridge and west based block... I’m seeing a light around Jan 22-31

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes.  I would legit quit if we get too much of a good thing.

 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If we waste this we really do suck. This is a once a decade type blocking event. 

Yes, but the real question is whether it is a once in 25 years event...;-). 

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

To be fair, that’s not what I’d call a “strong” signal southern lows. It’s intensity it’s pretty paltry, comparatively 

Dude, its a smoothed 324H mean.  It's not going to show a parade of 982 LPs riding along the coast.  I'll take my chances with a 50/50, blocking, and lower anomaly pressures in the heart of climo any day.  

The constant search for a PERFECT pattern is tiring and a waste of time.

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7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Dude, its a smoothed 324H mean.  It's not going to show a parade of 982 LPs riding along the coast.  I'll take my chances with a 50/50, blocking, and lower anomaly pressures in the heart of climo any day.  

The constant search for a PERFECT pattern is tiring and a waste of time.

 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s a D13 ensemble mean dude.

Yep, understand that. But if you look at the intensity of the western ridge and the low heights off in the eastern Atlantic, those are strong signals (and means as well) for those features to be present in 13 days. Means work both ways, and the strength of those mean features is stronger this more reliable, imo to come to fruition then a barely present mean low look in the souther tier 

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10 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Dude, its a smoothed 324H mean.  It's not going to show a parade of 982 LPs riding along the coast.  I'll take my chances with a 50/50, blocking, and lower anomaly pressures in the heart of climo any day.  

The constant search for a PERFECT pattern is tiring and a waste of time.

And also. If you read my previous posts I said that I liked the overall “futuristic” setup in the LR. I was pointing out that the mean heights in the southern tier, even for an resemble mean, was not highly suggestive. Which that look could change too. I never said it won’t happen or isn’t going to happen. Simply look at the strong features on the map. That wasn’t one of them

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7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

Yep, understand that. But if you look at the intensity of the western ridge and the low heights off in the eastern Atlantic, those are strong signals (and means as well) for those features to be present in 13 days. Means work both ways, and the strength of those mean features is stronger this more reliable, imo to come to fruition then a barely present mean low look in the souther tier 

I'll let someone way smarter than me confirm, but wouldn't you expect a 50/50 low and western ridge to show stronger on an ensemble mean than a random azz gulf low 15 days out?  

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20 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

Yep, understand that. But if you look at the intensity of the western ridge and the low heights off in the eastern Atlantic, those are strong signals (and means as well) for those features to be present in 13 days. Means work both ways, and the strength of those mean features is stronger this more reliable, imo to come to fruition then a barely present mean low look in the souther tier 

You expect as deep a pressure along the gulf coast or southeast as a vortex in the North Atlantic?

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You expect as deep a pressure along the gulf coast or southeast as a vortex in the North Atlantic?

I’m making the point, PSU, that the 318 ensemble mean low heights in the gulf are great, awesome, but I’ve seen maps where there is a stronger signal there. That’s all I’m saying.

Geeze, you guys are wound too tight right now. We also ALL KNOW that it probably WONT happen anyways, so my point is even more valid. Yea, the look is great but we’ve also said that 646,876,239 times in the past month and what do we have to show for it. 
 

Ive have seen lower (and darker) blue down there before — would you disagree?

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25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'll let someone way smarter than me confirm, but wouldn't you expect a 50/50 low and western ridge to show stronger on an ensemble mean than a random azz gulf low 15 days out?  

I never said they should look the same as those features I was just making the point that those dominant atmospheric features (which are more constant, yes) shows in the mean. A slight mean pressure down south that represents are little blue area could simply just be a blip from one ensemble run to the next, which guess what, (earth shattering news coming) it probably is just a blip! So relax. Differing opinions are ok, and realize there HAVE been stronger long range, mslp ensemble looks down in the gulf. NEVER said once that this particular look wasn’t good, just said it’s not a strong signal. Why are we still talking about this? It’s all minutia anyways and pure speculation 

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7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

I’m making the point, PSU, that the 318 ensemble mean low heights in the gulf are great, awesome, but I’ve seen maps where there is a stronger signal there. That’s all I’m saying.

Geeze, you guys are wound too tight right now. We also ALL KNOW that it probably WONT happen anyways, so my point is even more valid. Yea, the look is great but we’ve also said that 646,876,239 times in the past month and what do we have to show for it. 
 

Ive have seen lower (and darker) blue down there before — would you disagree?

It's a billion hours away. Stop over-analyzing.

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