Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Lots of time. That run was so close to something more decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 4:19 AM, psuhoffman said: You can’t see it directly there but you can see the evidence because there is a 1004 surface low with h5 low ejecting so obviously it has an associated SW and vort. It’s just assumed from secondary evidence. Expand Ah thanks...so much to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 5:24 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand Quite the costal signal during that time too. Precip/snowfall means responding quite favorably. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 5:35 AM, Cobalt said: Quite the costal signal during that time too. Precip/snowfall means responding quite favorably. Don't bank on it. Seems that it will be pushed off a few more days from that. Maybe sun angle might have a say also. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 6:23 AM, CentralVaNATS said: Don't bank on it. Seems that it will be pushed off a few more days from that. Maybe sun angle might have a say also. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand I'm guessing this is sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 So the end of that Euro run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2021 Author Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 6:58 AM, stormtracker said: So the end of that Euro run..... Expand I was just about to post... looked interesting with the ridge out west nearly in a good spot for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I counted 12 members on the 0z GEFS with snow for our region on the 18-19th. Another half dozen or so with snow the 20-23rd. That is a pretty strong signal for 8+ days out. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 I'll throw this in for those who like these maps. It is the best snowfall mean I have seen in a long time, but then I don't look at them every run. 6z backed off a bit, but still pretty good. Outside of the western highlands, this is effectively from the 17th through the end of the run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Unless I read it wrong, 6z GFS didn’t have one flake of snow in our region from hour 0-384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 12:48 PM, CAPE said: I'll throw this in for those who like these maps. It is the best snowfall mean I have seen in a long time, but then I don't look at them every run. 6z backed off a bit, but still pretty good. Outside of the western highlands, this is effectively from the 17th through the end of the run. Expand Ha, I was about to post the same thing (and tag you since I know your love of snowfall maps). Even though 6z backed off a touch, what I liked is that the mean south of us increased from 00z which to me probably means some southern solutions mixed in which I like seeing at range. We’ve talked ad nauseum of this conducive pattern for what feels like 6 months now so it’s nice to see the ensembles picking up snowier surface solutions from the favorable H5 look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:03 PM, nj2va said: Ha, I was about to post the same thing (and tag you since I know your love of snowfall maps). Even though 6z backed off a touch, what I liked is that the mean south of us increased from 00z which to me probably means some southern solutions mixed in which I like seeing at range. We’ve talked ad nauseum of this conducive pattern for what feels like 6 months now so it’s nice to see the ensembles picking up snowier surface solutions from the favorable H5 look. Expand Yeah there is a solid signal for some frozen beyond day 7 on the last few runs of the GEFS, from extreme northern NC through all of VA, MD, and DE. EPS looked decent at 12z yesterday, but not so much on the 0z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 10:14 AM, CAPE said: I counted 12 members on the 0z GEFS with snow for our region on the 18-19th. Another half dozen or so with snow the 20-23rd. That is a pretty strong signal for 8+ days out. Expand Just catching up a bit here, so haven't looked at much. Was going to ask, does it appear that this is from two distinct systems, or a "timing" difference of one particular system? The date ranges seem almost close enough (18-19 vs. 20-23) that I wondered if these are from the same event just lagged in one group vs. the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:16 PM, CAPE said: Yeah there is a solid signal for some frozen beyond day 7 on the last few runs of the GEFS, from extreme northern NC through all of VA, MD, and DE. EPS looked decent at 12z yesterday, but not so much on the 0z run. Expand Yeah, meh-tacular. <Ji> we can never have two EPS runs in a row showing great stuff <Ji> There is a slight signal on the 00z EPS for a possible LP off the coast around the 20th that deepens and heads NE. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:02 PM, BristowWx said: Unless I read it wrong, 6z GFS didn’t have one flake of snow in our region from hour 0-384. Expand IMBY and all points south/east looked like a little snow on the 18th? (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:28 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Just catching up a bit here, so haven't looked at much. Was going to ask, does it appear that this is from two distinct systems, or a "timing" difference of one particular system? The date ranges seem almost close enough (18-19 vs. 20-23) that I wondered if these are from the same event just lagged in one group vs. the other. Expand It is sometimes difficult to tell with 30 members, but to me it looks like 2 or 3 chances between the 18th and the 24th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:43 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: IMBY and all points south/east looked like a little snow on the 18th? (I think) Expand It’s just an op run but it certainly doesn’t add to the confidence factor going into prime climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:43 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: IMBY and all points south/east looked like a little snow on the 18th? (I think) Expand Yeah there were some light blue pixels in there lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:48 PM, BristowWx said: It’s just an op run but it certainly doesn’t add to the confidence factor going into prime climo. Expand You know the drill with op runs beyond 7 days. The 6z GEFS looked almost as good as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:16 PM, CAPE said: Yeah there is a solid signal for some frozen beyond day 7 on the last few runs of the GEFS, from extreme northern NC through all of VA, MD, and DE. EPS looked decent at 12z yesterday, but not so much on the 0z run. Expand What I dont like about the threat around the 18th is we went from a strong 50/50 look on the means from 12z Jan 9 to barely a hint of a 50/50 same period and more of and east based -NAO signal. That hasn't worked for us over the past few weeks. Maybe the signal will return. If not maybe the followup wave around the 21st will have the predecessor wave to act as a 50/50. Am I the only one getting that can-kicking vibe lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:49 PM, CAPE said: You know the drill with op runs beyond 7 days. The 6z GEFS looked almost as good as the 0z run. Expand I do and you have done a bang up job breaking things down. Still nice to see some fantasy snow not massive rainstorms even on the op runs. Guess we will see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:53 PM, BristowWx said: I do and you have done a bang up job breaking things down. Still nice to see some fantasy snow not massive rainstorms even on the op runs. Guess we will see how it plays out. Expand Snow maps are pretty and all, but you and CAPE know as well as me that the truth in the LR lies upstairs at H5. The pattern isn't horrible but some of those favorable subtleties we saw 24hrs or so ago are starting to slowly fade. The overall look is ok, but seeing the 50/50 fade in lieu of more of an east based NAO ridge isn't exactly giving me the warm fuzzies tbh. Not being a deb, just being honest reporting the looks that are trending. I dont even want to discuss the LR ens at 300 hrs plus suffice it to say I really really hopethe NAO ridging can hang on and continue redeveloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 1:52 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: What I dont like about the threat around the 18th is we went from a strong 50/50 look on the means from 12z Jan 9 to barely a hint of a 50/50 same period and more of and east based -NAO signal. That hasn't worked for us over the past few weeks. Maybe the signal will return. If not maybe the followup wave around the 21st will have the predecessor wave to act as a 50/50. Am I the only one getting that can-kicking vibe lately? Expand Hard to say what the exact timing would be with a storm at this point, but look at this panel. We already will have had one cold front move through, and look at the TPV lobe underneath a pretty well positioned block. Not to mention the western ridge. I am definitely not hating that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 2:04 PM, CAPE said: Hard to say what the exact timing would be with a storm at this point, but look at this panel. We already will have had one cold front move through, and look at the TPV lobe underneath a pretty well positioned block. Not to mention the western ridge. I am definitely not hating that look. Expand Not a bad look, this we can agree on. And this time as you noted we have a different player on the field N of the GL...the TPV lobe. Guess we will find out in a few days whether this will gain traction OR will it follow the pattern and will our sw become the latest victim of the NS shred factory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 On 1/10/2021 at 2:12 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not a bad look, this we can agree on. And this time as you noted we have a different player on the field N of the GL...the TPV lobe. Guess we will find out in a few days whether this will gain traction OR will it follow the pattern and will our sw become the latest victim of the NS shred factory? Expand We will find out. We know suppression can be a risk in these setups, but I would rather flirt with that and have some decent cold to work with. Better odds of getting snow on the coastal plain with that look and cold/dry polar air available versus having a rotted Pac air mass in place every time a storm approaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 @Ralph Wiggum the WAR is displaced pretty far NE there. You have to take the totality of factors and how they play off each other. With a severely displaced TPV in southern Canada a ridge in the central Atlantic extending up through the NAO isn’t a bad thing. It can actually help prevent suppression in that scenario. I’m going to say this again...this isn’t directed at you but a general observation. I think because we have been stuck in a rut where NOTHING has been working out and DC is in a record snow drought the last 5 years people are starting to think unless we have this 100% absolutely textbook dead perfect pattern where every little feature is within 20 feet of where it was for some blizzard in the past it won’t work. And I don’t blame you because that’s how it’s felt lately. Even pretty decent looks produce nothing. But 90% of our snow, maybe not our HECS 20” storms but our regular old plain snowstorms, happened in a somewhat flawed pattern. The flaw might be a valid excuse why it was only 6” instead of 20” but I’m seeing all these posts picking apart really decent looks as if it can’t snow in that pattern when we have had plenty of snowstorms in exactly that pattern. That perfect textbook everything exactly where we want look only comes along a couple times a decade. We cannot rely on getting that to get any snow or frankly snow will be a VERY rare thing around here (which granted it has been lately). To sum it all up my point is if we want this snow drought to end what we really need is to hope we start getting more luck with pretty good but not perfect patterns that are more common not waiting around for that pattern that comes once a decade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Icon looks pretty good at 171, nice confluence. Good start to 12z imo idk I got good vibes today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 Not bad. Probably not worth discussing with this model at this range, but It does look like It would be a close call if we saw beyond 180. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2021 Share Posted January 10, 2021 That cold push in the ICON is nice to see. Subfreezing temps down close to Tampa the morning of the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now