January Long Range Disco Thread

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, PivotPoint said:

My fear about the upcoming “good” pattern is starting to seem a bit more substantiated at h5 on recent runs, as we move past the 15th. Lots of sw’s that shear ots under our block and fast flow coming off the eastern seaboard, IN to the Atlantic @psuhoffman thoughts?

That’s common in a blocking pattern. We don’t need every SW to amplify just one or two. Could it just be cold/dry...yes that’s happened before. Or one wave amplifies and we get a big snow.  

[WxUSAF]

Kind of discouraging today. Not sure what else to say. Next Tuesday isn’t dead yet, but it’s on life support. After that, maybe a chance for something like flurries or snow showers with or behind the cold front late next week? Then we’re waiting for some cold air to actually arive and get a good storm track. That probably doesn’t happen until the 18-20th it seems. Now that pattern does look very good, but it’s 10 days out still. 

[WEATHER53]

24 minutes ago, frd said:

Require universal agreement for a snow threat these days and unless it's a 1996 type event would like that in the medium range. Simply can't put much faith in modeling these last few winters. An abundance of failures. However, still like the threat period ahead. 

Yet people go to bat for them. At their very core they Do Not predict weather but rather give examples of it. As long as the consumers of model services accept that then nothing changes. Models have not improved much in 20 years. They have tried to become more specific and it does not work. This mess since mid to late December is another example. It’s not possible to zero in on something  500 miles off the west coast and predict that in 6-10 days it will be a low pressure off SC coast, or off VA capes, or over Pittsburgh and it ends up In central Great Lakes or off Florida coast and out to sea. They can’t do it so ultimately they show about 32 scenarios per day then a whole new set the next day

Ji, THIS is why they make us cry.

[osfan24]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kind of discouraging today. Not sure what else to say. Next Tuesday isn’t dead yet, but it’s on life support. After that, maybe a chance for something like flurries or snow showers with or behind the cold front late next week? Then we’re waiting for some cold air to actually arive and get a good storm track. That probably doesn’t happen until the 18-20th it seems. Now that pattern does look very good, but it’s 10 days out still. 

I mean, if the pattern on the 18-20th is really good and then extends out and it is real, fine. I can certainly live with waiting another 10-12 days for a pattern that could be very good for a few weeks. But if the can keeps getting kicked down the road, and then there are signs February doesn't look good...........

[WesternFringe]

21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yet people go to bat for them. At their very core they Do Not predict weather but rather give examples of it. As long as the consumers of model services accept that then nothing changes. Models have not improved much in 20 years. They have tried to become more specific and it does not work. This mess since mid to late December is another example. It’s not possible to zero in on something  500 miles off the west coast and predict that in 6-10 days it will be a low pressure off SC coast, or off VA capes, or over Pittsburgh and it ends up In central Great Lakes or off Florida coast and out to sea. They can’t do it so ultimately they show about 32 scenarios per day then a whole new set the next day

Ji, THIS is why they make us cry.

This is not true just because you state it.  The verification scores for the major models have increased dramatically.

ETA:  For example, this text is from 2015 and the map is from 2017.  We are better 120 hours out than we used to be 48 hours out with hurricane tracks.  Why?  Better models, and by a long shot:

Over the past fifteen years, 1- to 5-day NHC track forecast errors have declined by about a factor of two—an extraordinary accomplishment that has undoubtedly led to a huge savings in lives, damage, and emotional angst for the people living in Hurricane Alley.

 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kind of discouraging today. Not sure what else to say. Next Tuesday isn’t dead yet, but it’s on life support. After that, maybe a chance for something like flurries or snow showers with or behind the cold front late next week? Then we’re waiting for some cold air to actually arive and get a good storm track. That probably doesn’t happen until the 18-20th it seems. Now that pattern does look very good, but it’s 10 days out still. 

So I understand that we've had solid teleconnections for awhile and it stinks that we haven't really scored during it, but my brain got set for January 20th on as the prime window and anything prior would be gravy. I guess many on here really wanted some gravy. Now if we don't start scoring some after January 20th then oh well, next year I guess.

[BristowWx]

Just now, WesternFringe said:

This is not true just because you state it.  The verification scores for the major models have increased dramatically.

Yeah the GFS that most are not a fan of pushed today’s low south and never really budged once it did.  That was over a week ago. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I mean, if the pattern on the 18-20th is really good and then extends out and it is real, fine. I can certainly live with waiting another 10-12 days for a pattern that could be very good for a few weeks. But if the can keeps getting kicked down the road, and then there are signs February doesn't look good...........

Or simply if the great pattern ends up being a week versus several weeks.

As Isotherm stated, it sounds like the best opportunity is later this month, and then maybe March. 

 

[chris21]

Just now, frd said:

Or simply if the great pattern ends up being a week versus several weeks.

As Isotherm stated, it sounds like the best opportunity is later this month, and then maybe March. 

 

Isotherm was more optimistic than I expected for sure.

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE @frd

Sorry I didn't respond earlier today I have been very busy.  But wanted to comment on your posts early this morning regarding the pattern in general.  

CAPE your point about where we have been and going is 100% accurate so this is not meant to be confrontational...in the current pattern we have NOT been able to develop enough domestic cold under the pacific flow into Canada for it to work out.  We have had SW after SW track under us with nothing to show.  But here is where I want to point out something...Posting the map CAPE showed earlier

That pattern you are totally correct has NOT worked....but it is responsible for the vast majority of our MECS and HECS snowstorms.  That look (+PNA,-NAO, Aleutian low, split flow) is the holy grail!  Yes the Aleutian low pumps pac maritime air across Canada...but historically we have been ok with cold that develops UNDER the split flow.  Its NOT a cold look.  But a huge percentage of our snow came during that pattern when frankly had there not been a storm it would have been 50 degrees in DC that day.  A LOT of our big snowstorms historically came with temps right near 32 degrees even with a saturated boundary layer.  SO I am not disputing that this has not been working out for us lately...but I am also not willing to just throw that look away as not a good snow pattern because frankly if that no longer works...DC would average like 6" of snow and I am not exaggerating.  Without all the snow we get from that split flow pattern there...DC's snow climo would be the same as TN or NC where they have to wait for some blue moon perfect storm of variables to come together ever few years to get snow.  So lets hope this lack of success is bad luck and due to the really awful early season pattern and all the cold becoming locked on the other side of the globe.  Because that pattern HAS to work...it is our best snow pattern and trust me no one will be happy with what our snow climo would look like if that no longer works.  

But...moving on where is this heading...I am using last nights run that CAPE posted because I have been too busy to really dig into todays stuff yet. 

Yes this is colder...but its also not going to produce a significant snowstorm.  Look at where the flow is...waves are going to be coming in way too far north and east into the CONUS in that pattern to do us much good.  That wave 1 full latitude ridge west trough east look is just a cold/dry look.  But luckily its temporary and we head towards this look after...

This has more potential.  But let me point out...where that EPO ridge is located is way too far west to do us any good if it wasn't for the -NAO and the displaced TPV in southeast Canada.  There is only 2 ways to really get snow here from an EPO driven pattern.  Luckily one is that right there...to get a displaced TPV in southeast Canada.  The other is to have a very rare positively tilted EPO ridge that extends into the Yukon.  That was how 2014 worked at times.  But both of those are extremely rare.  We have had several EPO patterns in the last 5 years that did not produce any significant snowfall for Baltimore/DC.  That is way more common.  So that goes back to my point above...we really don't want to have to rely on getting all the little details needed that rarely happen to make an EPO pattern our best snowfall one.  It might work here because we also have a -NAO and favorable TPV location...but the EPO will never be a reliable index for snowfall because it requires other rare variables for it to be helpful.  Otherwise it dumps the cold into the west and yes that bleeds east behind storms but then retreats anytime a wave amplifies because the trough axis it too far to our west.  That look above though...the NAO/displaced TPV will resist a SE ridge and force that cold to turn east under the blocking and set up a gradient for storms to ride.  The danger though is if storms do not dig far enough south it just becomes a cold dry pattern.  Longer term the dangers is if the NAO/AO back off too much the gradient will end up to our NW.  But that right there is a good look and promising.  But in the broader since I am not willing to just throw out a pattern (split flow -NAO) that accounts for like 75% of our snowfall!  Lets hope that isn't necessary and this year is just more bad luck then anything else.  

 

[high risk]

13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Yet people go to bat for them. At their very core they Do Not predict weather but rather give examples of it. As long as the consumers of model services accept that then nothing changes. Models have not improved much in 20 years. They have tried to become more specific and it does not work. This mess since mid to late December is another example. It’s not possible to zero in on something  500 miles off the west coast and predict that in 6-10 days it will be a low pressure off SC coast, or off VA capes, or over Pittsburgh and it ends up In central Great Lakes or off Florida coast and out to sea. They can’t do it so ultimately they show about 32 scenarios per day then a whole new set the next day

Ji, THIS is why they make us cry.

        I don't have enough fingers to count the number of dead-wrong statements in this post.

[MocoMike]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

So I understand that we've had solid teleconnections for awhile and it stinks that we haven't really scored during it, but my brain got set for January 20th on as the prime window and anything prior would be gravy. I guess many on here really wanted some gravy. Now if we don't start scoring some after January 20th then oh well, next year I guess.

My thoughts exactly.  It is encouraging that the period many have highlighted as our best chance is coming into view on guidance and does in fact look good.  I would have definitely loved some gravy, but it is not looking likely.  I am trying to step away from any expectations for next week because it just looks like heartbreak.  

[Baltimorewx]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

        I don't have enough fingers to count the number of dead-wrong statements in this post.

Best to just ignore him...he goes on these rants every winter. You've already denounced him several times that I recall

[frd]

 

Worth keeping track for any longer term implications, even though as Isotherm stated,  this may not achieve Major SSWE criteria. 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Isotherm was more optimistic than I expected for sure.

Tom has been saying since November that January would provide the best chances and HL blocking would be prevalent. He continues to hammer home the point that we are likely going to punt Feb. And March is a coin flip every year so of course we "might" get something in March. With that said, overall his outlook appears spot-on thus far and if weeklies etc are to be believed he is going to nail the first part of Feb at the very least. 

[frd]

 

Again, no one can really be sure with these events,  but as this animation shows, note how long the wait is for the cold after the official SSWE, and please be aware we are only looking at 1959-60 and 2005-06 in the animation loop. Others years however are relatively close. 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So I understand that we've had solid teleconnections for awhile and it stinks that we haven't really scored during it, but my brain got set for January 20th on as the prime window and anything prior would be gravy. I guess many on here really wanted some gravy. Now if we don't start scoring some after January 20th then oh well, next year I guess.

Who doesn't want gravy.  Toss those unamerican losers on an island somewhere NOW

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who doesn't want gravy.  Toss those unamerican losers on an island somewhere NOW

I wanted a large portion of stuffing,  and cranberry sauce,  but the one without the berries.  

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Who doesn't want gravy.  Toss those unamerican losers on an island somewhere NOW

I'm not hostile to gravy at all but I've always looked at gravy as a surprise not an expectation. So anyone on here who felt like they deserved gravy well....hope they liked chewing on the dry meat and taters. All of that said....I prefer butter.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm not hostile to gravy at all but I've always looked at gravy as a surprise not an expectation. So anyone on here who felt like they deserved gravy well....hope they liked chewing on the dry meat and taters. All of that said....I prefer butter.

The great gravy famine has to END

 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The great gravy famine has to END

 

Aligned!!

[frd]

 

@Isotherm  Tom does this mean anything , enough to sway you that the event, although not a 5 day reversal, still might be considered major.  Any thoughts would be appreciated. 

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I wanted a large portion of stuffing,  and cranberry sauce,  but the one without the berries.  

So you want cran without the berry? 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So you want cran and but not the berry? 

Yes Ocean Spray Jellied 

[MocoMike]

[frd]

Wonder if when the block makes a subtle shift is when it marks a time period when we can score.  21 st or 22 nd. 

You can see though the general retraction also seeing a junior Beast of the East over Eastern Europe. 

Wonder in time what occurs to the extreme cold that looks to gather over the pole. .   

 

[MocoMike]

You can see the EPS moving toward what PSU was mentioning with the ridge in the Pacific retrograding, the NAO weakening, and the trough dumping in the west with a SER popping...

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder if when the block makes a subtle shift is when it marks a time period when we can score.  21 st or 22 nd. 

You can see though the general retraction also seeing a junior Beast of the East over Eastern Europe. 

Wonder in time what occurs to the extreme cold that looks to gather over the pole. .   

 

That looks like an improvements to me

[frd]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That looks like an improvements to me

It is an improvement from now,  but beyond that period  you will see the concerns that psu mentioned. 

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

You can see the EPS moving toward what PSU was mentioning with the ridge in the Pacific retrograding, the NAO weakening, and the trough dumping in the west with a SER popping...

That look could be productive if there is some cold air around. GEFS has some solid cold then, EPS is more tepid. But I’m definitely concerned that our good window is fairly short and if we miss on the ~2-3 chances in that window...