psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @Ji if we fail it won’t be because the blocking failed. We have had a favorable high latitude regime since November. The AO has been as negative as can be realistically hoped for. The NAO has been negative in general too. The blocking has shifted around and waxed and waned but it’s been consistently there. Just putting this out there because for years the most common cause of pattern fail was a failure of projected blocking to materialize. This isn’t that. The long range guidance has nailed the general longwave patterns. They just haven’t produced the expected benefits given their generally favorable looks. We’ve had a -AO+PNA in the means for 6 weeks!!!! From range those generalities are all you can assess. But as wxusaf said...going through weeks of that kind of pattern with barely a flake is monumentally bad luck! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 I'm curious what part of North Carolina is receiving the most snow today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm curious what part of North Carolina is receiving the most snow today? Duck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: Duck Duck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Duck Goose 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Duck If you look at Wakefield radar its snowing over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, frd said: Are you feeling our window has narrowed down a bit? Its looks like it can produce near the 20 to 23 rd , but the longevity of it seems to be lessening. We kind of knew the Pac would improve, but then go the other way again. I know the vortex west of AK was preventing cross polar flow. But it was also preventing a typical Nina response in the PAC longwave pattern by suppressing the central pac ridge. Our longwave pattern purely from a storm track POV has been perfect but we just needed that to back off some. I wanted to take my chances that we eventually get cold enough in that look. But the N PAC vortex looks to exit completely. That means a ridge through AK will pop and we will get cold injected into the pattern. But it also means the we will be fighting attempts to build an eastern ridge in that longwave pattern. The ridge will end up too far west without that vortex to suppress it and shunt it east. So long as there is still good blocking that can work. If the AO remains negative it will squeeze the trough far enough southeast to get the thermal gradient into the east despite the SE ridge. That could set up a 2014 type look. But the danger is if the blocking relaxes the gradient will likely end up to our NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 FWIW the 12Z RGEM would be a hit. And looks a lot like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 150 hours into a gfs run on Jan 8 and not a single comment. LOL you know it’s bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: FWIW the 12Z RGEM would be a hit. And looks a lot like the NAM. How would the NAM be a hit? It looks just like today’s event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How would the NAM be a hit? It looks just like today’s event I am just going by upper air maps. It looks like it would be a perfect 500 pass to me. But what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am just going by upper air maps. It looks like it would be a perfect 500 pass to me. But what do I know? As much or more than I do LOL. But to me both models look like they would sheer and shoot straight east just like today. Gfs is LOL with its run to run changes at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I am just going by upper air maps. It looks like it would be a perfect 500 pass to me. But what do I know? One issue in this setup is that there is a HPC centered off VA beach and OBX with a disturbance in SE canada. Flip that setup and we'd be in a good spot. The only way I see next weeks threat working out for someone in our area would be a super amped system. Anything less than that is going to be light rain with a little wet snow mixed in at best. Also, imo the super amped solution would favor elevation and areas NW given the current airmass. Models for the most part have been pretty locked in from 96 hrs to the event. I'll have a hard time giving this threat much time without some major changes showing up in guidance by this afternoon and tonight 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: FWIW the 12Z RGEM would be a hit. And looks a lot like the NAM. Hit with rain maybe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 CMC destroys us---with light wintry mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: CMC destroys us---with light wintry mix And a bombing 1016 Low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Hit with rain maybe lol I dont live in the city. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, midatlanticweather said: And a bombing 1016 Low... These lows have such high pressure I’m surprised they aren’t spinning clockwise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: I dont live in the city. Even for you this wouldnt be a sig snow event without it bombing and taking a near perfect track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Even for you this wouldnt be a sig snow event without it bombing and taking a near perfect track Define a “sig snow event” lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 This is right about the time when the euro will spit out a big event around day 7-9 that none of the other models have, keep it a couple of runs, then it drop it like a hot potato 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Define a “sig snow event” lol Hell at this point over 1" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Even for you this wouldnt be a sig snow event without it bombing and taking a near perfect track At this point a snow shower is a significant snow event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Hell at this point over 1" LOL I agree 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Also, I think the reason the cities haven't had any real snow is not because of some new normal. I think it's just been a ridiculous amount of bad luck so far. I know that's not a scientific answer. However, it is snowing in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia today. Yes, even in this crap airmass. We just haven't had any real threats recently and the one's we've had have literally been 50-100 miles away from being huge hits. This line of thinking has kind of kept me sane over the past couple winters. At some point, we will get lucky. At some point we will get the big dog. Until then I try to be at peace that I live just south of Baltimore near the bay and any snow I receive is a bonus and not a guarantee. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, MD Snow said: Also, I think the reason that the reason the cities haven't had any real snow is not because of some new normal. I think it's just been a ridiculous amount of bad luck so far. I know that's not a scientific answer. However, it is snowing in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia today. Yes, even in this crap airmass. We just haven't had any real threats recently and the one's we've had have literally been 50-100 miles away from being huge hits. Great post. Knoxville has more snow than NOVA. Can’t blame it all on an airmass. Look at it this way. Why didn’t it snow on Christmas Eve/Day? Today? Gotta at least have a precip event. If we’d had precip today it was cold enough that we would have seen snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Here's a shot from Jonesville in Lee County this Morning. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Also, I think the reason that the reason the cities haven't had any real snow is not because of some new normal. I think it's just been a ridiculous amount of bad luck so far. I know that's not a scientific answer. However, it is snowing in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia today. Yes, even in this crap airmass. We just haven't had any real threats recently and the one's we've had have literally been 50-100 miles away from being huge hits. We can add Texas to the list in about 48 hours. Then Louisiana as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 inches of heavy, wet snow. Power outages reported. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Also, I think the reason that the reason the cities haven't had any real snow is not because of some new normal. I think it's just been a ridiculous amount of bad luck so far. I know that's not a scientific answer. However, it is snowing in areas of Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina and Virginia today. Yes, even in this crap airmass. We just haven't had any real threats recently and the one's we've had have literally been 50-100 miles away from being huge hits. This line of thinking has kind of kept me sane over the past couple winters. At some point, we will get lucky. At some point we will get the big dog. Until then I try to be at peace that I live just south of Baltimore near the bay and any snow I receive is a bonus! I hear what you are saying and agree for most part, but those places do have elevation on their side though which doesnt hurt...cities do not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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