Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 37 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: You waited until last sentence to lose your credibility. Yeah I was like...seriously? Lol Gonna get on me, but give him a pass? I guess if that's the standard, if you complain, I guess as long as you post a model map in the same post as said complaint you're contributing and not part of the problem! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising. thats not the blue i wanna see bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Seems about right. Pattern looks good though. I see nothing wrong with it 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: thats not the blue i wanna see bro show me this blue instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: thats not the blue i wanna see bro Yeah I know. You are addicted to those wonky surface p-type maps. It all starts upstairs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I see nothing wrong with it I guess its events like that that make your commute worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 If the gfs just went out 450 hours.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I was like...seriously? Lol Gonna get on me, but give him a pass? I guess if that's the standard, if you complain, I guess as long as you post a model map in the same post as said complaint you're contributing and not part of the problem! Yeh man you get little doom and gloomy at times, but so much more chill than vajina. He's just so oversaturated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising. I feel like a broken record but everything really is progressing in the way we outlined a week ago and is typical of a blocking regime. There has been no degradation of the progression. The only let down is there was hope we “could” score something during the early phase of the blocking with some luck. My optimism for the Jan 15-30 hasn’t waned but waiting sucks. But I do keep having this thought lately...and touched on it with wxusaf earlier, it seems we don’t luck into minor events in decent patterns anymore. Waiting a while into a blocking pattern isn’t unusual. But in the past we usually had minor events along the way. 1995/6 we didn’t have any warning events until Jan 7 and that block established in early December but we had a string of minor events along the way. Lately it feels like we wait around for a perfect setup to get a big storm and otherwise it’s shutout city where we can’t even get a car topper. That makes this harder. Even a couple 1-2” events would probably make the mood more bearable. 3 minutes ago, Ji said: thats not the blue i wanna see bro you are really funny sometimes sometimes 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising. Keep us on the path to righteousness my friend 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah I know. You are addicted to those wonky surface p-type maps. It all starts upstairs though.Upstairs is fun for a while but blue without blue makes me red 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS is negative thru next weekend. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ji said: 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I know. You are addicted to those wonky surface p-type maps. It all starts upstairs though. Upstairs is fun for a while but blue without blue makes me red 1 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Blue Ball-oons? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Checking the various news outlets on line...CNN headline: polar vortex may be on the way...now shits gettin real 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Checking the various news outlets on line...CNN headline: polar vortex may be on the way...now shits gettin real Its never good when the laymen folk start talking about the polar vortex...since they don't have a fukking clue what it actually is. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @Ji @WxUSAF @CAPE 3 of the last 4 runs of the op gfs have looked like the ensembles do day 10-15. and suddenly we’re seeing snow in that period almost every run. This run was about to bury us at the end. I also doubt that day 10 storm lifts that far north before jumping to the coast. But the main point is the op gfs is hinting how that pattern would play out. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji @WxUSAF @CAPE 3 of the last 4 runs of the op gfs have looked like the ensembles do day 10-15. and suddenly we’re seeing snow in that period almost every run. This run was about to bury us at the end. I also doubt that day 10 storm lifts that far north before jumping to the coast. But the main point is the op gfs is hinting how that pattern would play out. I’m not a fan of living and dying by snowfall mean maps BUT 18z GEFS 5 day snowfall mean (1/16-1/21) is 2” in DC. That’s as good a signal we could expect 10-14 days out for a 5 day mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’m not a fan of living and dying by snowfall mean maps BUT 18z GEFS 5 day snowfall mean (1/16-1/21) is 2” in DC. That’s as good a signal we could expect 10-14 days out for a 5 day mean. The best window is just starting to enter range. I expect to see those maps light up a bit more in the next few days. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 lol @psuhoffman I was just coming to post the 384hr 18z GFS. I know, I know, I feel dirty just typing that. But it is literally a perfect HECS pattern. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The best window is just starting to enter range. I expect to see those maps light up a bit more in the next few days. Yeah the next few days begins the transition from Pac flood to injection of Polar air into our source region and then southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Euro much less sheared for Early week at 90 hour fwiw What’s the end result? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What’s the end result? The end result is the run ends at 90 hours 2 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 The end result is the run ends at 90 hours I’m sure 96 would of been mecs but maps aren’t allowed to show blue on us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: I’m sure 96 would of been mecs but maps aren’t allowed to show blue on us . Only our feelings are allowed to be blue 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The end result is the run ends at 90 hours Oh yeah. 18z. Jeez I’m an idiot. I’m sure it would have been magical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS does give us fantasy snow to dream about beyond next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 @WxUSAF @CAPE This is a 10 day mean day 6-16. If we can’t snow with this pattern in mid to late January then it’s time to let @Ji loose on one of his scorched earth burn it to the ground epic tirades. I’ll even join in. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF @CAPE This is a 10 day mean day 6-16. If we can’t snow with this pattern in mid to late January then it’s time to let @Ji loose on one of his scorched earth burn it to the ground epic tirades. I’ll even join in. We’ll be talking about the epic MLK day blizzard with that pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ji said: I’m sure 96 would of been mecs but maps aren’t allowed to show blue on us . Stop bringing up 96! Yes. It was 24 years ago today. Oh wait. You meant hr 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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