PivotPoint Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Para has a slider day 11. It will totally be there next run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Dang man...I didn't realize February could go to crap...now I'm a bit nervous. It is never comfortable to just have one window. Too much can go wrong, and you have to pin your winter hopes on one or two chances. See I was hoping we were gonna finally hang on to the -AO/NAO regime and have windows into mid-February. But now I read Isotherms outlook and he says it might break down and go positive in February? Hope he's wrong...now if we can cash in second half of January...that'll be fine Dang it, man... @psuhoffman so you mean to tell me had that stupid pac warmth in November hadn't happened, we'd already have more snow? Smh I hope that doesn't screw us over...not when we finally got the elusive winter -ao/nao. We don't know when we'll see this in winter again...I hope we can take advantage of it somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 WB 12Z EPS. Some chances here Day 5 and beyond. Seems like next week at this time we will know if January is a complete dud or if things are getting ready to rock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 February has looked very mild in most long ranges Wevd been practicing “10 days away” since mid December with zip and same zip for the theoretical benefit of SSW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years. So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35". By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date. But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO. Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that. Its not that we are below average. The issue is the pattern has been good for snow. And on top of that we have had storms. Just not snowstorms. We got unlucky on the timing of the block setting up. All of the cold air got trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. And the rest is history. I still think we get hit in late January/early Feb. though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: February has looked very mild in most long ranges Wevd been practicing “10 days away” since mid December with zip and same zip for the theoretical benefit of SSW. I swear if I read anything more about a threat in the d7-d10 range being taken seriously I'm going to flip out and see the reaper. Ah shoot, too late for that. Is there a secret lvl2 panic room? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. Some chances here Day 5 and beyond. Seems like next week at this time we will know if January is a complete dud or if things are getting ready to rock... Can you post through day 7 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 WB EPS thru Day 7 as requested... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, IronTy said: I swear if I read anything more about a threat in the d7-d10 range being taken seriously I'm going to flip out and see the reaper. Ah shoot, too late for that. Is there a secret lvl2 panic room? May I suggest a different thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Can we seriously stop with the "doom-posting"? I've been on here for 10 years now at varying capacities and it's the worst it's ever been. It's becoming unbearable. I'm not going to point fingers, but there's a solid crew accumulating here that really don't contribute anything to the conversation at all. Worse, y'all seem to just spew the first thought that comes into your head. A thought that has likely been stated multiple times the same week/day/hour. It feels like I read the exact same post from the exact same set of "doomers" every day on a different page. It's like a 10:1 ratio of garbage to actual discussion sometimes and is likely a large part of the reason some of our most experienced forum members have been leaving the past few years. Give it a rest. If you don't have anything to say other than "oh no, what will we do if we don't score this month?!?", then please just keep it to yourself or take it to the banter thread. I'm not even pointing at posters like Ji... he contributes, even if it comes with a bunch of attitude. 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z Icon. Looks better than the last few runs. Let's see if it gets shredded. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, TSG said: Can we seriously stop with the "doom-posting"? I've been on here for 10 years now at varying capacities and it's the worst it's ever been. It's becoming unbearable. I'm not going to point fingers, but there's a solid crew accumulating here that really don't contribute anything to the conversation at all. Worse, y'all seem to just spew the first thought that comes into your head. A thought that has likely been stated multiple times the same week/day/hour. It feels like I read the exact same post from the exact same set of "doomers" every day on a different page. It's like a 10:1 ratio of garbage to actual discussion sometimes and is likely a large part of the reason some of our most experienced forum members have been leaving the past few years. Give it a rest. If you don't have anything to say other than "oh no, what will we do if we don't score this month?!?", then please just keep it to yourself. I'm not even pointing at posters like Ji... he contributes, even if it comes with a bunch of attitude. Hi, new doom poster here (although today was my only day, I've been optimistic until now) Get some snow in here and it'll get better...lol I blame the 5 year warning snow drought many of us have been in. Of the last 10 years, I think the last four or five have been kinda brutal...probably accumulated frustration. That being said...I hear ya. I learn a lot from the knowledgeable posters here, and I'm sorry some have left...we all gotta be better. It's just something about snow psychology...it's an emotional thing or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hi, new doom poster here (although today was my only day, I've been optimistic until now) Get some snow in here and it'll get better...lol I blame the 5 year warning snow drought many of us have been in. Of the last 10 years, I think the last four or five have been kinda brutal...probably accumulated frustration. Understood and why there is a panic room thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said: Understood and why there is a panic room thread. Now see, I don't go in there as much because I'm uncomfortable with the death iconography...(which is why I've never been "reaped")...but even banter is better than in here I suppose. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 18z Icon. Looks better than the last few runs. Let's see if it gets shredded. Confluence tighter and in a better spot. NS speeds on by well north. Certainly a better look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Confluence tighter and in a better spot. NS speeds on by well north. Certainly a better look. Comes North as the run ends at 120. No cold air though. But atleast it has a storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hi, new doom poster here (although today was my only day, I've been optimistic until now) Get some snow in here and it'll get better...lol I blame the 5 year warning snow drought many of us have been in. Of the last 10 years, I think the last four or five have been kinda brutal...probably accumulated frustration. That being said...I hear ya. I learn a lot from the knowledgeable posters here, and I'm sorry some have left...we all gotta be better. It's just something about snow psychology...it's an emotional thing or something... No offense intended dude, but this is exactly the type post I'm talking about. It fills the thread with useless fluff. Everyone knows we haven't had much snow the past few years, and everyone who is posting here likely feels the same way about that fact. We don't need to be reminded 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Comes North as the run ends at 120. No cold air though. But atleast it has a storm lol ill take a chance on that lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 navgem trying to use leftover energy to spin up a storm later next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, TSG said: No offense intended dude, but this is exactly the type post I'm talking about. It fills the thread with useless fluff. Everyone knows we haven't had much snow the past few years, and everyone who is posting here likely feels the same way about that fact. We don't need to be reminded I don't make the doom posts much though...this was my first since early last year. I ask more questions than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 7, 2021 Author Share Posted January 7, 2021 18z GFS has a storm this time... but goes out to sea. It's not shredded at least lol... as in at least it develops into something. Does nothing for us though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GFS with a different solution again. The Southern vort is healthier this time. Instead of deamplifing , it strengthens as it hits the coast but to little to late for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 18z GFS has a storm this time... but goes out to sea. It's not shredded at least lol... as in at least it develops into something. Does nothing for us though rain to Bermuda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, TSG said: Can we seriously stop with the "doom-posting"? I've been on here for 10 years now at varying capacities and it's the worst it's ever been. It's becoming unbearable. I'm not going to point fingers, but there's a solid crew accumulating here that really don't contribute anything to the conversation at all. Worse, y'all seem to just spew the first thought that comes into your head. A thought that has likely been stated multiple times the same week/day/hour. It feels like I read the exact same post from the exact same set of "doomers" every day on a different page. It's like a 10:1 ratio of garbage to actual discussion sometimes and is likely a large part of the reason some of our most experienced forum members have been leaving the past few years. Give it a rest. If you don't have anything to say other than "oh no, what will we do if we don't score this month?!?", then please just keep it to yourself. I'm not even pointing at posters like Ji... he contributes, even if it comes with a bunch of attitude. You waited until last sentence to lose your credibility. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 each major model had a good hit for us but never in the same run and never duplicated again the in the following run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 1 hour ago, TSG said: Can we seriously stop with the "doom-posting"? I've been on here for 10 years now at varying capacities and it's the worst it's ever been. It's becoming unbearable. I'm not going to point fingers, but there's a solid crew accumulating here that really don't contribute anything to the conversation at all. Worse, y'all seem to just spew the first thought that comes into your head. A thought that has likely been stated multiple times the same week/day/hour. It feels like I read the exact same post from the exact same set of "doomers" every day on a different page. It's like a 10:1 ratio of garbage to actual discussion sometimes and is likely a large part of the reason some of our most experienced forum members have been leaving the past few years. Give it a rest. If you don't have anything to say other than "oh no, what will we do if we don't score this month?!?", then please just keep it to yourself. I'm not even pointing at posters like Ji... he contributes, even if it comes with a bunch of attitude. "READ MORE! POST LESS!!" A good adage to abide by here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 A strong jet streak moving into a developing trough argues for more amplification and slower progression, and less of a tendency for progressive/flatter. That is sort of meteo 101 stuff, but it might be the case where the models don't quite have a handle on this yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 GFS brewing something up at 252. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Seems about right. Pattern looks good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 So our "good" period has always looked to start around mid month. This is the 7 day mean beginning at that time on the EPS. No guarantees, but this looks very promising. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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